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NeilBlanchard
Maynard, MA
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In order to just match the number of gasoline stations in the US (about 120,000), we would have to build 1 hydrogen filling station per week - for about 2,300 YEARS.
Ain't gonna happen.
Sandia Labs and Linde partner to expand hydrogen fueling network; performance-based design for stations
New Linde hydrogen station. Click to enlarge. Sandia National Laboratories and Linde LLC have signed an umbrella Cooperative Research & Development Agreement (CRADA) they expect to accelerate the development of low-carbon energy and industrial technologies, beginning with hydrogen and fuel ...
It does nobody any favors to make claims about mileage of the Volt - and ignore the electricity used. It is not that hard to measure the kWh of a charge with a 120V EVSE.
I hope the gen 2 Volt has (at least) 50 miles of EV range, and that it gets (at least) 50MPG in hybrid mode - and also that it has room in the backseat for tall adults.
And I hope they have an EV (battery only) version, in addition the plugin hybrid version. The EV version should have (at least) 100 miles range. 125 or 150 would put it close to the Tesla Model III.
GM Warren Transmission Plant to build electric drive unit for second-gen Volt; part of $300M investment in Michigan through end of year
Later today at the Detroit Economic Club, General Motors CEO Mary Barra will confirm that its Warren Transmission Plant will build the new electric drive unit—the GM Voltec 4ET50 Multi-Mode EDU—for the upcoming second-generation Chevrolet Volt. As a result, most major Volt powertrain components...
The E-Fan blades are variable pitch. This adds to the range of performance from this airplane in various situations.
And as I understand it, the ducted fans are much more efficient than open props of the same diameter.
The tips of the blades are moving the fastest, and there is a rotating ring capturing the ends of the blades so almost no air slips around the tip. The air flow is directed into more parallel direction by the duct.
Wikipedia says that ducted fan are up 94% more efficient than the same diameter open prop.
First public test flight of Airbus electric 2-seat E-Fan aircraft at E-Aircraft Day; precursor to 4-seat extended range version
The successful first public flight of the electric E-Fan experimental aircraft took place during the E-Aircraft Day in Bordeaux. Click to enlarge. The Airbus Group’s electric E-Fan experimental aircraft made its first public test flight at E-Aircraft Day in Bordeaux, France. The electric E-...
So, it appears that we have just seen the peak area of Arctic ice.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png
And rather late, too.
PIOMAS March 2014
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: During the month of February the gap between this year and the other years from the post-2010 period ...
There appears to have been two periods this winter when the ice area actually decreased (melted?). Typical wobbles in the graph are decreased rate of freezing, or even a plateau - but actual decreases before March seems to be (nearly) unique.
PIOMAS February 2014 (upgrade to Version 2.1)
Another month has passed, but this time there is more than just a data update. It seems the whole PIOMAS version 2.0 has been upgraded to 2.1. As it says on the Polar Science Center website: We identified a programming error in a routine that interpolates ice concentration data prior to assimil...
This is looking a little ominous:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png
PIOMAS February 2014 (upgrade to Version 2.1)
Another month has passed, but this time there is more than just a data update. It seems the whole PIOMAS version 2.0 has been upgraded to 2.1. As it says on the Polar Science Center website: We identified a programming error in a routine that interpolates ice concentration data prior to assimil...
Where will the hydrogen come from?
How will it be distributed?
How much will it cost to fill up?
How long will the fuel cell last?
How many cars can fill up in a day at a hydrogen filling station?
Will the station have a roof? (The ones I have seen so far do not have roofs.) If not, how does this work in snowy areas?
How big is the battery pack? Is it a plugin?
The three sources of hydrogen that I know of are:
1) It is a byproduct of chlorine production.
2) Steam reforming of natural gas.
3) Electrolysis using electricity to split water.
Each of these has it's challenges. We can only get so much from making chlorine, because we only need so much chlorine. It is a "byproduct" but it is probably already spoken for for various and sundry purposes.
Steam reforming is not so great because it takes a fossil fuel and adds more energy to it (heat that comes *probably* from burning natural gas?); thereby negating any possible advantages of "clean" hydrogen.
Electrolysis is also problematic: it takes a LOT of electricity to split water. Like about 3-3.5X more energy than you can get back out of the hydrogen, as I understand it. And where does the electricity come from? From the grid? If so, then it is 3-3.5X dirtier than an EV. Renewable energy? Then hydrogen is just a really inefficient way to store and transfer electricity. It is very "lossy".
One of the bottle necks for hydrogen filling stations is the non-trivial process of compressing the hydrogen to ~10,000PSI. It is "pre-compressed" to ~5,000PSI before a fuel cell vehicle even shows up, and then it is compressed the rest of the way to 10,000 PSI during the fill process. This takes yet more energy - probably electricity from the grid.
Having even air stored at 10,000PSI in tanks on the car is problematic; let alone highly acidic and explosive hydrogen.
The reason there are no roofs on on hydrogen filling stations is simple - if it leaks, then you do not want to trap it inside.
Distributing hydrogen is not something we have even attempted to do, and it is certainly a HUGE challenge to build this infrastructure. You think exploding oil transport trains or burst oil pipelines are a challenge, then hydrogen will be much worse.
Battery packs will last 200K+ miles and maybe even more; depending on the chemistry. Prius batteries have lasted 300-500K miles.
Do we know how much a new fuel cell will cost? I'm guessing it is probably more than a big battery pack.
The last I heard about the cost of hydrogen was from an episode of Fully Charged when Robert Llewellyn drove a Honda FCX Clarity. It was ~€36-37 to fill it with ~4kg of hydrogen. This is roughly £30. Driving an EV the same distance cost under £3.
Toyota opens CES with strong affirmation of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles; “staggering” rate of cost reduction; FCV on sale in US in 2015
Toyota opened the 2014 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) with a strong affirmation of the benefits of and potential for hydrogen fuel cell technology. “We aren’t trying to re-invent the wheel; just everything necessary to make them turn,” said Bob Carter, senior vice president of automotive opera...
I saw the 500L for the first time yesterday here in Massachusetts, and it is a *lot* bigger than the 500. It also is rated at just 27MPG Combined, which is ho-hum to say the least.
It has very unusual A pillars - there is a piece of glass the butts into the windshield, and it probably is good for air flow.
Neil
Fiat 500L Living diesels average about 70.6 mpg on Turin to Paris run
Fiat 500L running in the Bosch Diesel Challenge. Click to enlarge. A small fleet of Fiat 500L Living models, equipped with the 1.6 MultiJet II 105 HP diesel with Start&Stop, covered the 800-kilometer (497-mile) route from Turin to Paris on an average of 27 liters (7.1 gallons US) of fuel, c...
Why do they count battery replacement costs, but not regular maintenance costs for diesel? Clutch replacement, starter replacement, and brake pad replacement are all quite expensive for diesels, and yet EV's don't even have clutches or starters, and they use their brakes much less, due to regenerative braking.
They counted generation ad transmission losses for electricity - but diesel does not appear out of thin air, either!
The energy overhead for diesel goes all the way back to discovery of oil fields, and exploratory drilling. It uses a significant amount of electricity along the way; and a lot of natural gas - which has it's own overhead of electricity; and now with fracking, they use a lot of water, and with deep water drilling and with tar sand bitumen, the total rises higher still.
I have seen numbers ranging from 7.5kWh to ~13kWh per gallon of gasoline, and diesel can't be all that different. So, if the carbon overhead of electricity is added, in all fairness, to diesel, I think that diesel is not ever going to come out with lower costs.
Neil
Georgia Tech study finds MD electric urban delivery trucks have cost advantages over diesel in some conditions; relative benefits depend on numerous factors
The study found that TCO for electric and diesel medium-duty urban delivery trucks were similar. The electric truck is relatively more cost-effective on the NYCC and when VKT demand is higher. Cost-competitiveness of the electric truck diminishes in drive cycles with higher average speeds. C...
This is interesting - will it lead the way to also having video mirrors in place of the side view optical mirrors? This would reduce the aero drag caused by optical mirrors, and it could remove virtually all blind spots, too.
Neil
NHTSA adds rearview video systems to list of recommended safety technologies to encourage broader use
The US Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) will add rearview video systems to its list of recommended features under its New Car Assessment Program (NCAP). NHTSA made the addition to the list of Recommended Advanced Technology Features to encour...
So, this means they are only going to about triple the miles they have done so far? In 12 years they did 295 million miles, and in 5 more years they will add another 705 million? So, that was an average rate of 24.58 million / year up to ~141 million / year.
That's a bit less than a 6X increase. So, for electric trucks, that means going from ~150 up to ~900. That seems like a low bar to me.
Neil
UPS sets 2017 goal of 1 billion alternative fuel miles
UPS released its annual Sustainability Report announcing that while the total number of packages shipped in 2012 increased, the company reduced its total Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. Environmental achievements included ground and air fuel savings, increased investments in alternative fuel veh...
The knee in the extent line on the NSIDC graph is still looking like it is increasing:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png
And it appears to be similar to the one in early June of 2012, and it may be even steeper?
Neil
Problematic predictions 2
This comment by long-time commenter Rob Dekker was so good and elegant that I decided to squeeze it in as a follow-up guest blog to the first Problematic predictions post. ----- In Bill's excellent overview of correlations here, he used 'area' earlier as a predictor for 'area' later (area->are...
Does this vehicle have side windows? That would make it a lot more practical; though in some locations they could be left out so it qualifies as a quadricycle.
Neil
Honda unveils micro-sized EV “Micro Commuter Prototype”; variable design platform
Micro Commuter Prototype Click to enlarge. Honda Motor Co., Ltd. unveiled the Micro Commuter Prototype, a micro-sized short distance EV commuter. This vehicle was developed in consideration of the vehicle categories for micro-sized mobility products that are currently being discussed under ...
They need to design a platform specifically for an EV. The battery pack should be in the floor for much better Cg.
The grill opening needs to be nearly closed up -- the need for cooling on an EV is minute compared to an ICE, and this would lower the aerodynamic drag by as much as 10%, and the range would be improved by about that much.
Does gasoline appear out of thin air? If you are going to account the generation losses for an EV, then you need to also add in the energy overhead to find oil, drill and extract oil, transport it, refine it, transport it again, etc.
For a fair comparison, we should use the BTU equivalent of 33.7kWh per gallon of gasoline; as the EPA does.
Neil
Ford begins roll-out of Focus Electric; electrifying the platform efficiently
The Ford Focus Electric. Click to enlarge. Ford has begun the consumer roll-out of the Focus Electric, the battery-electric version of its new Focus; production of the vehicles began in December 2011 at Ford’s Michigan Assembly Plant. (Earlier post.) The Focus Electric is Ford’s first elect...
Obviously, they have added the carbon from the production of electricity -- but did they also add the carbon from the production of gasoline? Since a lot of electricity and natural gas are used all through the long path from oil exploration to extraction, to transportation, to refinement, and more transportation, pumping and storage all along the way (which is similar to grid losses!) I can only imagine what the actual carbon footprint of gasoline is!
Nissan has said that each gallon of gasoline represents about 7.5kWh of electricity. So, for the electricity overhead *alone*, a Leaf can travel about 22-38 miles depending on how you drive. The Illuminati Motor Works '7' (X-Prize competitor) could go as far as 50 miles on 7.5kWh; and I believe this can be surpassed!
So leave the oil in the ground, and use that same electricity directly in an EV.
Also, there is the lubrication oil, coolant, and the other consumables (filters, etc.) used for regular maintenance of ICE powered cars. This is non-trivial and needs to be included in any serious study. Electric cars have virtually no regular maintenance; other than tires and wiper blades, which they share with ICE powered cars, obviously.
Also, only renewable energy is truly low-to-zero carbon. Nuclear has a carbon footprint that includes uranium mining, refinement and enrichment, making fuel rods, building power plants that use an immense amount of concrete and steel, hot fuel rod storage, dry cask storage, and then plant decommissioning and *very* long term high security storage of dangerous waste -- all of which has a carbon footprint.
Electricity *can* come from renewable energy, and therefore gets cleaner over time.
Oil is finite.
Electricity is virtually infinite.
Neil
Ricardo study finds electric and hybrid cars have a higher carbon footprint during production than conventional vehicles, but still offer a lower footprint over the full life cycle
Electric and hybrid cars generate more carbon emissions during their production than current conventional vehicles, but still have a lower carbon footprint overall, according to a new report prepared by Ricardo for, and in collaboration with, the expert membership of the UK’s Low Carbon Vehicle ...
I wonder about chicken feathers as a inexpensive source of high quality carbon nanotubes?
http://www.sciencefriday.com/program/archives/200906261
http://www.happynews.com/news/6242009/feather-fibers-fluff-hydrogen-storage-capacity.htm
These articles concentrate on the hydrogen storage potential, but these carbon fibers can be used for other purposes, for sure. They are very consistent and they are very cheap/virtually free.
Sincerely, Neil
Contour Energy Systems Licenses MIT Carbon Nanotube Technology for Li-ion Battery Electrodes
Contour Energy Systems, Inc. has acquired a carbon nanotube technology that can significantly improve the power capability of lithium-ion batteries, through an exclusive technology licensing agreement with Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). (Earlier post.) Early findings from researche...
Sherry, thanks for the perspective on the new version vs the older one. I am disappointed in the lack of "easy coasting" in the new car -- this is by far the most efficient way to go. The regenerative braking should *only* be on the brake pedal. Because, coasting uses the potential energy of the moving car much more efficiently than does regenerative braking. Coast when you need to carry your speed to gain distance, and only use regenerative braking when you must slow down.
I really hope that Th!nk makes the (software?) change to make this possible in the Economy mode.
Sincerely, Neil
Driving Th!nk, Six Years Apart
Th!nk was my first electric car, leased from Ford in 2002-2004. My wife and I loved that little car and were heartbroken when Ford canceled all Th!nk leases. Six years later, I got to drive the Th!nk again. (Photos: New Th!nk in red, old Th!nk in blue.) The company has returned to its roots...
I hope the Nido EV sees production soon! I hope it gets front wheel drive (for better regenerative braking!) and it would be great to see a 24-28kWh lithium (iron or manganese) battery pack in the floor. Another (likely) improvement if they dropped the Zebra battery might be a *much* smaller air grill on the front?
If only the Toyota/Scion iQ looked this smooth! Or, the Murray T27...
Sincerely, Neil
Pininfarina Unveils Nido EV Prototype
The Nido EV. Click to enlarge. Leading automotive design group Pininfarina unveiled the Nido EV, the first running prototype of the “Nido Development Program”, the project for an electric car conceived, designed and built entirely by the Pininfarina Style and Engineering Centre of Cambiano (...
Greetings,
I've been working on a list of things that all car makers could be doing to improve efficiency:
http://neilblanchard.vox.com/library/post/more-ways-for-auto-makers-to-build-more-efficient-vehicles.html
One of the things to add to what Lotus has done, is to add multiple latches to the doors -- this would improve the the strength of the overall structure, allowing the weight to be reduced because the door opening frames do not need to be reinforced as much. And the overall shell is complete, which increases the strength.
Another thing that adds efficiency in several ways, would be to redesign the wheels and the suspension, so that the wheels are rigid and non-inflating, and the suspension does all the dampening -- and the shock absorbers could then generate more electricity than they otherwise would. This would eliminate the need for an alternator; especially if, you had a plug in charger.
So, greatly improved rolling resistance and reduced unsprung weight, which leads to reduced energy to keep the car moving, combined with regenerative shock absorbers (which can be tunable for ride and handling), which eliminates the need for an alternator.
I hope you can read the rest of my list!
Sincerely, Neil
Lotus Engineering Study Concludes Vehicle Mass Improvement of 38% by 2020 vs a Conventional Current Vehicle Can Be Achieved at Only 3% Cost
The Lotus Engineering 2020 lightweight Toyota Venza. Click to enlarge. Lotus Engineering has conducted a detailed study to develop a commercially viable mass reduction strategy for mainstream passenger vehicles. This study, released by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)...
Hello,
A serial hybrid does not use the fuel combustion motor to push the car, and the HP of the range extender should not be confused with the HP of an ICE driven vehicle.
The range extender runs at it's most efficient RPM to charge the battery, and it at that speed it only needs to be able to "keep up" with the discharge rate of the battery.
It does not have to be nearly as big as you think: the Aptera 2h will likely use a 15HP engine, and the prototype Mini hybrid with the 160HP hub motor (on each of the four wheels -- so ~640HP pushing the car!) used a 2-cylinder 250cc engine to charge the batteries.
Sincerely, Neil
ETV Motors Demonstrates Proof-of-Concept Microturbine-Based Range-Extended Electric Prius
Israeli startup ETV Motors Ltd. (ETVM) completed a proof-of-concept test of its Range-Extended Electric Vehicle (REEV) architecture using a gas microturbine for the range-extending generator. The company had closed a $12M Series A round in April. (Earlier post.) For the test drive, the company m...
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