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A question regarding quantitative easing--Perhaps someone can answer this:
If the Federal Gov't hits the debt limit without an extension or such, would the buying of bonds under the quantitative easing program stop?
thanks/LDA
Employment Brackets the Over/Under
The over/under is a betting level: the predicted points in a game. Last month employment disappointed, but it was blamed on weather. After that report, the catch-up level was 260k jobs in this report. We missed that by a mile. The catch-up number was lowered since then down to 196k by those myst...
There used to be a "plunge protection account" that used to step in from time to time. Do they still exist? Interesting bit on China but even they are not going to move on that any time soon are they?
The wave practitioners that follow gold must be seeing some interesting things today and perhaps they would be kind enough to comment?
Thanks
LDA
Chinese Curse Bewitches the Dollar
Be careful what you wish for; it may come true - Chinese curse China made a bold currency move Wednesday, and it barely registered in the West: it is encouraging the Yuan to be a reserve currency, to be used to settle transactions in and out of China, instead of the Dollar. For all those pundit...
Yelnick et al,
What are we to make of how the dollar, commodity prices, bonds and the equities are behaving? At this stage it seems like the dollar should be moving higher even with the higher crude. There are a lots of stories that some large macro/hedge fund is closing large positions in some of the ag markets, currencies and brent crude. Could the wave practioners offer up a count on the dollar index?
Thanks/LDA
Buy The Dip?
The biggest drop since last August got the bears out of their hibernation, as well as the triumphant buy-the-dip crowd. This drop so far is but a blip in a relentless rise, and buying dips has been the right approach. Zerohedge made fun of it in a series of BTFD pictures (parent alert - risque l...
The dollar index held trendline support and bounced smartly. Brent crude oil which had been up to $103 is ending the week just at $100. The dollar has a tendency to go up early in the calendar year-not always but often. For a period of months, the stock market (s&p 500) was moving opposite the dollar moves. There are a number of commodities that do as well--at least in shorter time frames like a week.
Question-does the wave pattern on the dollar suggest that there is an up wave coming and would it/could it be counted as a "3"? On your weekly chart of the index the move from March of 2008 to March of 2009 looks like a 5 wave up. That is followed by what lloks like a 3 wave down that ends in late 2009. Another 5 wave up that ends in June 2010 which some might call a " 1 of 3"? A pristine looking 3 wave down that ends in early November of 2010. From early November to late November what might be a 5 wave up followed by and abc down which brings us to this past week.
I would greatly appreciate if the proper wavers here could have a look at it and comment.
Thanks/LDA
Groundhog Day for the Dollar Again
It's Groundhog Day and the USD is once again giving a wake-up call. AUD popped above parity and the USD is heading into a key support level. Phoenix Capital Research raises the Alert Level with this chart, which shows the mighty Buck once again hitting a key support level: If it breaks below, ...
As I see it, both factors are principal price drivers. The underlying supply/demand shift caused by weather events and the new(er) part of the demand components-ethanol AND the liquidity provided by QE and the subsequent drop in the dollar all have an impact. Both factors are at work. Current prices would not be where they are if not for both factors being at work at the same time. QE was like puring jet fuel on fire given that a number of food/fiber commodities were getting snug before July 1 of last year. How much are prices higher because of QE is one of the best questions ever asked.
LDA
You Know Global Warming is Over When ...
MSNBC (not Fox!) blames the food riots in Egypt on "speculation" not Global Warming (ie. food shortages due to unusual weather such as the Russian summer heat wave): Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy One of my predictions for this year is that bla...
Do any of you have a elliot wave count on the dollar index? It seems like the move from March of 2009 has been opposite of the stock market as a general rule and it seems like the dollar index made a 5 wave move up from March of 2008 through March of 2009. Does anyone there have a view on where the dollar is in the count going back to February of 1985 when it made the high?
Thanks
LDA
After the Santa Rally: A Technical Analysis
"October is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The other are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February." - Mark Twain January has been a cruel month over the past decade. Santa Rallies hit January and fell in almost...
A few weeks back I asked a question here with regard to the S&P 500 cash chart and I'll ask it again...Does anyone else think that it looks like a head & shoulders bottom on the daily S&P and doesn't that tie in with Elliot Wave bottoming price action?
Treasury Yield Dive Signals "Barbell" Market
Treasuries are rising as yields plummet. This is leading to a barbell market: gold-and-Treasuries, and is bad news for investment in venture capital and private business. It may presage the next phase of the crisis, just as Bernanke is declaring victory. This chart is from tonight's STU, which...
A question for the technical analysts...does the current chart of the S&P 500 look like a head & shoulders bottom?
Final Surge?
Market bounced off 23.6% retracement, a minimal level. It also broke back above SP992. Sentiment is getting bullish - as the STU today notes, in a wave 2, near the end, investors will be convinced a new bull is underway. And that indeed is where sentiment is going. The STU is unsure whether we...
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