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Your analysis is more subtle than Harford's, but I wouldn't call your theorem a contradiction, since it appears to be true! You have uncovered a nice tension in what looks like a complex n person, m institution, coordination game between the all eggs in one basket/trial by error strategy. Very interesting.
An Uncertain World II: Adapt, by Tim Harford
Another long post: PDF here (but lacking some last minute changes) for anyone who prefers it. There is a contradiction at the heart of Adapt, the new book by the Financial Times' Undercover Economist, Tim Harford, and once the contradiction is unpicked, the rest of the book unfortunately unrave...
I agree with Plainsight. Gladwell says his point is that
"When you are fighting a high-stakes, high-risk battle, like the civil rights battle, the issue is whether you can convince and motivate people to risk their likelihoods by acting in a disciplined and intelligent way against a formidable and dangerous opponent. Communicating with them is five percent of the problem.
Read more http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/ask/2010/09/malcolm-gladwell-twitter-social-media.html#ixzz11rwUAfbX"
The point is that more information doesn't lead to more commitment, the type of commitment may be dangerous.
Make The Revolution
Malcolm Gladwell gets as close as he can to saying "The revolution will not be Twittered" in this week's New Yorker, condemning social media's ability to enact real cultural change with an argument he sums up early in the piece: The evangelists
Joel, the rule I prescribed is a filtering rule designed to avoid type 1 errors, misidentifying a good prospect when it is bad.
There are a number of reasons to discount the value of talking with existing franchisees, and it certainly doesn't deserve to be one of the top 3 due diligence tips.
Many people will simply use the opportunity to confirm their beliefs instead of testing them. Indeed that is what due diligence is all about - looking for information that could, would, or tend to disconfirm your initial beliefs.
(As far as I aware, I don't have any detailed thoughts about brokers/consultants - but I probably will have something after my review of Lesley Curran's radio piece, on Segerto and Caruso's blog talk radio.)
@Todd, see my comments to Perry Shoom. And read the wikipedia article on confirmation bias.
Franchise Fight; Paranoid Canadian Franchise Attorney Lobs Lame Attack On US Franchise Consultant
(Pictured; The Webster Missile Lobber) Cleveland, Ohio--- Canadian franchise attorney, Michael Webster, (a writer for the franchise-bashing website, BlueMauMau) launched an almost blistering attack on a post about researching a franchise, that Cleveland, Ohio franchise consultant Joel Lib...
There is an ever growing awareness that disclosure laws are largely ineffective.
Having read your paper, I would recommend that you listen to the fraud tactics in "Weapons of Fraud" by Anthony Pratkanis. I think that you will find his examples on telemarketing fraud very insightful.
Predatory Lender Tactics
by Jeff Sovern Yesterday, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette published my op-ed, Consumer Bureau is Just the First Step, which reports on the tactics one predatory lender used to persuade borrowers to enter into loans that were not in their best interest. Here it is: Now that Congress has voted to cre...
What do you make, then, of the failure of hospitals to allegedly not follow these simple rules regarding the use of catheters?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/12/AR2010071204893.html
Strategy Is For Amateurs, Logistics Are For Professionals
I first heard this saying a few years back from Joe McCannon of the Institute for Health Improvement, who was campaign manager for an amazing effort by this non-profit to reduce the number of preventable deaths in U.S. Hospitals. It was called the 100,000 Lives Campaign, which according to most ...
I think that I would look at Scott Plous's piece on the Cold War as being a perceptual dilemma as good example of the time of indeterminacy you are looking for - I don't find the Quine claim very compelling.
Plous showed that with actual data from the US/USSR decision makers that each systematically framed the problem, or guessed about the other side's preference rankings, in different ways that allowed them to evaluate the evidence of each their and the other's propensity for a first strike in entirely different ways. Very interesting stuff.
Blackburn, Truth and other Hot Topics
Let me tell you a story you may have heard before. The Positivists held that if any claim was false -- any meaningful claim-- then there must be some observations that might be made that would prove, to anyone who understood the claim, that it was false. Quine taught us that this is wrong. It...
Jay Goltz had a good take on this today.
http://boss.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/08/its-the-economy-mr-bernanke/
What's Causing the Decline in Small Business Lending?
Small business lending is a big issue. Many have noted the decline in lending during the recession and a number of policy efforts to stimulate lending to small businesses have been suggested or implemented. But it is unclear if a lack of credit is the primary reason for the decline in lending...
One of the problems with this is that because the federal/state governments are out of cash, they are going to be heavily scrutinizing any attempts to pass of employees as independent contractors.
See: Play/plan/Prevent:
http://www.dol.gov/regulations/2010RegNarrative.htm
The Structural Shift to a Contingent Workforce
One of the most important trends of the last few decades is the growing use of contingent workers. This is a structural shift towards employer use of contractors, freelancers, part-timers, etc. instead of hiring full-time, permanent employees. While hard data on this shift is not available, mos...
Yes, we are bad decision makers when we allow inconsequential information to frame our thoughts.
But, if we wanted out of this trap what should we do?
"Mind over matter? How your body does your thinking": Another article about embodied cognition research
As those of you who read this blog may recall, I sometimes post reminders that we "know" with more than just our minds and brains. Conflict does not just happen between brains. (See my post We think with more than just our minds: Conflict reaches clear down to our toes.) Here's another article w...
Michael;
Why do you think that much can be explained by models of physics which have no actors that learn anything and react accordingly?
Do Market Prices Synchronize Input and Output?
A couple of years ago I was reading Schelling's Micromotives and Macrobehavior, and was struck by his description of the phase mismatch in the marriage market. I wondered (out loud here, using sloppy terminology) whether market price signals couldn't be understood as a mechanism for ameliorating...
Co-opetition is an excellent book, full of interesting ways to see how to create/claim value in a distribution chain.
It is informed by game theory but not what one would call an application of the mathematics of game theory.
Co-opetition by Nalebluff and Brandenburger
A blurb on the jacket to Information Rules by Shapiro and Varian leads me to the website for this book by Nalebluff and Brandenburger: Q. How does someone put this idea of CO-OPETITION into practice? A. The key is looking at business as a "game." Once you do, you can much more easily spot both t...
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