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Johnny alt
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..... until every premium member gets a starter sim or sims are considerably cheaper.
"If you have actual research to suggest that there's a large market of people who are willing to pay $1000+ for virtual land a year, show it." There's an abundance of evidence that people will pay 10/20 bucks and more to subscribe to a virtual world and MMOs. WOW have more than 10 million registered paying users and gather more than 150 million USD per month. If the price is right people will pay. Linden Lab are trying to collect too much money from too few people. They should start thinking about collection less money from more people. This is the crux of the problem. Linden Lab want 10 million premium members paying 10 bucks a month, like WOW, but they ain't going to get them unless every premium member gets a starter sim or unless sims are
@Flip Today's Minecraft Statistics 16,872,366 registered users, of which 4,137,673 (24.52%) have bought the game. In the last 24 hours, 58,268 people registered, and 7,414 people bought the game Geez, who would have thought ! Don't make me post Farmville, World of Warcraft numbers and a countless other examples of people wanting to build and play in virtual worlds. Secondlife is so much more than any of these. It's the generic. It's the 3D web
Hey Hamlet, The evidence that price effects sales for any and all products on this planet is abundant and overwhelming 1. The current price structure is totally killing sim sales. No growth. 2. Dropping the set up fee recently created a surge of sales 3. The Oct 2008 price hike caused 5000 sims to be dropped because of the PRICE 4. Sales fact - lower prices = higher volume sales 5. People love SL. People say they love it all the time. They also say - I'd love to buy my own sim but can't afford it. There is great evidence of desire for the product. 6. For every new sim LL picks up they lose one. There's a hole in the bucket ! High Tier costs are that hole. 7. There's a demand for sims that Linden Labs can NOT take advantage of with these silly prices and blockers like set-up fees and not letting people buy their own Homestead without a full sim - absurd ! 8. How many Linden Lab employees own their own sims and pay for those sims out of their own money ? Hey Linden Labbies ... would you pay these prices ? EVERY MONTH ! Do an internal poll. Seek evidence 9. Secondlife is AMAZING. It's one of a kind but The Lab has clearly lost faith in it's own product if it think that lowering tier cost will lose them money. Lowering tier cost will make them LOADS MORE MONEY. People want this product !! 10. If any Lindens are watching - have you guys EVER done a poll of the 400k people who log in every month and asked them how much would they pay to own their own sim ? What is the price point ? What is the sweet spot ? The real and simple evidence is that people are not buying. SL is stagnant and even slipping a little and it's because of tier cost. The constant churnover of sims is the best evidence of all. Gain one, lose one. Great product - great demand for product - wrong price - weak sales - no growth For goodness sake Linden Labs, believe in your product, it astounding.
Let's bust some silly myths/excuses. Myth 1 SecondLife is not yet a fully-formed consumer-ready product Myth 2 Secondlife is too difficult to use Myth 3 Secondlife is a niche product who's target audience is clever, lonley farmers with one leg The above myths are really just excuses, ways The Lab use to explain to themselves and others why Secondlife is not taking off. Really ??? After 10 years development it's not yet a fully-formed consumer-ready product and too difficult to use ? So if it's not yet ready or fully formed, why is The Lab charging 300USD per month for a sim ? The real truth is : Secondlife is a very well formed product with amazing potential RIGHT NOW Secondlife is not that hard to use, it's no harder than any other current 3D game It's not a niche product - incorrect pricing model keeps it niche The real reason why Secondlife is not taking off Right NOW is because the product, which is virtual land is too expensive. Current monthly tier costs are the real and only reason why the Secondlife grid isn't 10, 100, 1000 times larger than it is NOW The sooner The Lab stop 'Myth Making' excuses and remember what the actual product they are selling is (Land) and realise that tier is way too expensive, the sooner Secondlife will realise it's true potential as the incredible mass medium it is
Secondlife IS successful in many ways. But Secondlife is not as successful as it should be. Secondlife IS the 3Dweb right now and in truth it should have 10 million active users and concurrency in the 100's of thousands. It's an amazing medium, driven in to the ground by inapprpriately high tier costs. Until tier costs come down substantially, Secondlife will remain a curiosity, niche product. But Secondlife is NOT a niche product, it is the forerunner of something outstanding, not fully defined yet. Low tier cost = high volume sim sales High volume sim sales = an energised system energised system = high concurrency and healthy ecosystem Secondlife could easily be more successful than themed game worlds like world of Warcraft. It's only high tier costs that are holding it back
p.s. @Pussycat Note : It's not the same as it ever was, it's actually declining. User hours down Grid size down concurrency down Economy down Tier costs are the cause of the stagnant and weak interest in SL. It's not that people don't want SL it's that tier costs means they can't afford it SL would boom if LL reduced tier and found the sweet spot
Same as it ever was - How is that a good thing Same number join as leave - How is that a good thing Same as it ever was = stagnation There's a hole in LL's bucket and they need to fix it dear Pussycat How can LL fix it - Lower tier cost Secondlife is failing to reach it's full potential. I don't see that as a good thing. Tier costs are stifling the widespread use of this amazing virtual world technology.
Correlate these causative factors .. 1. High tier cost = low concurrency 2. High tier cost = Stagnant sim sales 3. High tier cost = low interest in SL Secondlife is an astounding piece of technology, shame it's priced wrong for proper growth. LL make 80miliion bucks a year but they should be making a billion ! They've got the price all wrong, so wrong
Skyrim is a wonderful but it is a one shot pony. Secondlife is a platform, within which there is the potential for many varied worlds to exist. Many continuous large scale game worlds like Skyrim could exist within the Secondlife platform if Secondlife sims were more affordable. High tier costs are preventing developers from creating worlds like Skyrim within Secondlife. Linden Lab currently gather approx. 80million USD per year in revenue. If they halved tier cost they would easily sell 4 times as many sims (and more) and gather 160million USD per year (and more). The lower LL put the tier cost the more sims they will sell and the more Secondlife's potetial will be realised. Worlds like Skyrim could easily be created in Secondlife if tier were lower. Skyrim is but one world - Secondlife has the potetial to be the 'Mother of Many Wolrds'
There are 3 reasons why SecondLife Failed to Go Big 1. High tier costs 2. High tier costs 3. High tier costs LL behave like they have a niche product when in reality they are MAKING SL a niche product by pricing it out of the range of most people's pockets. How can SL ever be a mass market product or even grow at all when it's 300 bucks for a full sim per month
Hamlet said : 'And what do you mean by "massive growth"? Growth similar to previously recorded growth - prior to the 2008 price hike Secondlife can grow from within AND attract thousands of new sim owners if the blockers on sim ownership are removed. The 3 main blockers are - 1. High monthly tier costs 2. Blocking people buying a Homestead without owning a full sim 3. The Atlas program 1. High monthly tier costs - this is simple it's just too expensive and people are not buying 2. This is a really serious blocker. There are literally thousands of people who would love to get a Homestead directly from LL, even at current tier prices but are unable to do so because the $1000USD set up fee and 300USD monthly tier sits between them and the product they want. 3. The Atlas program is another contributing factor to the stagnation of the grid. In an attempt to protect the big estate owners, LL have basically killed one of the biggest and most exciting games in SL - THE LAND GAME. High tier costs combined with with the Atlas program price breaks for the biggest estate owners makes it very difficult for new players to enter the LAND GAME The Atlas program is blocking the growth of the grid and making it somewhat boring aswell as the big land owners are often just land flippers serving up the same stale ideas of how land should be presented to end users. Current Tier costs are depressing, lowering interest in Sl and preventing exciting projects from getting off the ground. It's just too expensive. The fact the grid isn't growing is evidence itself that the price is wrong. When LL dropped the set up fees they had a surge of purchases. Evidence again that price is a big factor. Did I just say price is a big factor to whether people purchase a product ???? Perhaps there may even be evidence out there that price effects purchasing choices. Gosh !! I think I'm on to something here !
Hamlet, Here's some evidence regarding how high tier costs effect the grid The above graph : Monthly number of regions on the SL grid tells the story of tier and it's effect on the growth of Secondlife and the grid itself. Before the price hike of Oct 2008 we had spectacular growth, it's almost like a rocket taking off. When tier costs went up approx 5000 people dropped sims. A clear indication of tier price effecting purchases. If the Oct 2008 price rise hadn't happened growth would have carried on and now 3 years later we'd easily have anywhere between 60 - 120k sims on the grid, and that's with some cooling down of the market. Yet 3 years later we're stagnant at approx the same 31k sims as in 2008. The Oct 2008 price rise was a massive error. It actually killed interest and killed the growth of the platform. the grid has still not yet recovered and never will until tier is reduced.
Marvelous to see better game development tools in SL but efforts like this are lost and fall on stoney ground when tier costs are so high. There are countless brilliant and creative game devs who can not afford the current tier costs so literally 1000's of SL game projects will NOT BE DONE. The tier cost is prohibitively high. Until the game killing tier costs are addressed we'll see no real growth in the platform, games or otherwise. This is a terrible thing as Secondlife is absolutely awesome but it is priced wrong.
Hamlet, unfortunately LL will NOT get massive growth until they cut tier. Tier costs are the deal breaker, they cause too much friction. If anybody could buy a Homestead with a Premium account and Homesteads were 49 USD per month Tier - the grid would explode and MASSIVE GROWTH would happen. LL need to bite the bullet and grow some 'cahoonas'! There's no other solution. No reduction in tier, no massive growth.
It doesn't matter what The Lab does or what Will Wright suggests. If the resident killing high tier costs are not reduced, Secondlife will continue to spin on the spot, stagnating and slowly declining and losing residents because of cost fatigue. The tier costs are insane and they cause so much friction in the core user base. Committed, dedicated, passionate users are walking away, they can't justify the ongoing costs. I doubt Will Wright, marvelous though he is, will make any difference at all unless he says to the powers that be at LL - Hey guys isn't 300USD per month kind of expensive ??
My Coffee and power listing .. I will teach Philip Rosedale how to make Secondlife Succeed on a Massive Scale for $0 USD (Just lower tier mate ! )
oh forgot to say - Lower tier costs PLUS letting anybody buy a Homestead without owning a full sim is the KEY to mass adoption of Secondlife People just can not afford the canvas that Will is talking about Secondlife will remain a niche product until tier is lowered and anybody can buy a Homestead
Wright says, "I think another approach to [MMOs] is that you give the players that canvas," Well unfortunately in Secondlife a canvas costs 300USD tier per month I wonder if The Sims would have sold 140 million copies if it had cost 300USD per month to play The greatest innovation Linden Lab could do right now is lower tier so people can actually afford to use the product. Now THAT would be glorious !
Hamlet you said : 'the only way to fully replace the lost land revenue is for SL to have millions of highly active, highly monetized monthly users' The only way LL are going to attract 'millions of highly active, highly monetized monthly users' is to dramatically lower tier costs. It's all about land. Land is the game. If LL lower tier costs, people could 'PLAY' the 'GAME' 300USD to play a game is TOO MUCH. Get real LL.
The only metrics that show the real condition of Secondlife are concurrency and number of private islands on the grid. Both are weak and the constant loss and churnover of sims shows a deep unhappiness with high tier costs Secondlife will continue to stagnate until the resident killing high tier costs are reduced
@Pattaya Blog It amazes me that Linden Lab continue to kill and churn over their own core residents community with 300USD per month tier costs. And no price reduction in tier after years and years. Quite amazing biz model. What ARE they thinking.
Pity Linden Lab continue to undermine the whole concept of virtual worlds by sticking to their resident killing price model of high tier costs. No wonder the main Secondlife grid is shrinking and concurrency and user hours are weak and falling with these incrdible high tier costs. Wise words from Arcadia Codesmith I think the parallel trend in social worlds spells trouble for the tier-based revenue stream of SL and similar worlds. I would not be surprised to see new virtual worlds in the next decade giving land away for free and supporting themselves through microtransactions (and taking a chunk of player-to-player transactions).
If Linden Lab reduced tier costs, concurrency would improve, there would be more customers and creators COULD charge less for top quality goods. Resident killing tier costs are the big problem. If there are less customers top quality creators need to charge more not less. The balance is clearly lost
Linden Lab want to charge 300USD per month for their product. That's 300USD per MONTH, not per year. Yet they allow the cheapest products to be front and centre of the first pages of the marketplace. The effect this has is that Secondlife looks worse because cheap products are often the worst products ( not always, but nearly always). How can Linden Lab expect to lease sims at the premium price of 300USD per month when their product looks worse and worse because they are not cultivating the talented creators but instead allowing the cheapest and lowest quality goods the best exposure at the SL marketplace. So Linden Lab want to charge 300USD per month for their product yet creators are expected to create and sell their time for 10L$. Something is seriously wrong with this ! The balance has been lost and Secondlife is suffering because of it