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Brendan, I don't think your link about NPR bias and the Groseclose/Milyo study is working. All I'm getting is a webpage with a giant blowfish.
Twitter roundup
From my Twitter feed (4/5-4/8) Brendan Nyhan Apr 8, 2011 at 5:55 PM Powered by Keepstream BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan MT @kinggary "27% of communication by members of Congress is taunting, prof concludes" WaPo http://j.mp/etHP8D based on http://j.mp/ey1oxs 27% of communication by...
Brendan, thanks for the Canadian election post in your feed. I was an uber-nerd in college for following Canadian politics, and even did a symposium presentation on it.
Twitter roundup
From my Twitter feed (4/5-4/8) Brendan Nyhan Apr 8, 2011 at 5:55 PM Powered by Keepstream BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan MT @kinggary "27% of communication by members of Congress is taunting, prof concludes" WaPo http://j.mp/etHP8D based on http://j.mp/ey1oxs 27% of communication by...
Maybe I'm reading too much into the numbers Penn gave, but why would have only mentioned "two Democrats in the last 90 years?" After all, 100 years ago, Woodrow Wilson (a Democrat) was elected, and then reelected in 1916.
Maybe Penn was trying to hyper inflate the challenges faced by a Democratic incumbent in order to bolster his argument. 2 Dems/90 years = 1 victory every 45 years.
On the other hand, 3 Dems/100 years = 1 every 33 years. (Although, technically Wilson was re-elected in 1916, so it's 3/95 = 31 2/3 years).
I understand not wanting to go too far back and then include the Cleveland administration, and on and on. But at some point, it becomes obvious you're trying to cherry pick your numbers to win your readers over.
Mark Penn wrong on "historical odds" of Obama victory
Democratic pollster Mark Penn writes the following: Only two Democrats in the last 90 years have been reelected to a second term -- Franklin Roosevelt and Bill Clinton. The rest of the Democrats have seen their presidencies cut short, and so the historical odds of Obama winning a second term are...
It seems to me that David Brock's mission is more personality driven than politically driven. Up until 1997, he was a smearmonger for the right. Once he changed political stripes, it didn't seem as though the way he operated changed.
Twitter roundup
From my Twitter feed (3/21-3/29) Brendan Nyhan Mar 29, 2011 at 1:35 PM Powered by Keepstream BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Public opinion on Libya - the poli sci perspective from @jbplainblog http://j.mp/h6uNRY and Scott Althaus http://j.mp/e6HVCu Why Obama’s Poll Numbers Didn’t Ge...
It's not education - it's experience that matters, Mr. Lessenberry. I've come to so many employers that want experience, that I've been turned away for people who have either just a high school degree (and 15+ years experience) or a bachelor's degree who did the same job in a different location before seeking newer opportunities.
I've got a Master's, and I apply for jobs where I'd be the cat's ass at what I do, but unless they see X-years experience, your advanced degree is a waste of your time and money.
The educated are leaving this state and should because the rhetoric isn't matching the results.
Essay: What’s Wrong With the Democrats - 3.29.11
Yesterday, the Democrats in the Michigan Senate called for a constitutional amendment to protect the School Aid Fund. Michigan Radio’s Jack Lessenberry thinks we should ask, “where’s the beef?” Hear Audio Story A lot of people are uneasy about Governor Rick Snyder’s proposal to cut aid to edu...
Brendan,
You're in Michigan. We don't sell "soda" in this state. It's called "pop" here. You've been here long enough, get with the lingo.
Second, because the event is sponsored by the AARP, do you think there will be any discussion about the state's attempts to tax seniors' pensions? I know it's about national issues, but the AARP here has been pretty vocal about it, and it is a hot topic right now.
Upcoming AARP Michigan forum on misinformation
For those who are interested, I'll be speaking at an AARP Michigan forum on political misinformation in Jackson, MI next Tuesday (free popcorn and soda!): AARP Michigan will host a community conversation in Jackson on March 29 about myths, facts and confusion surrounding media coverage of nation...
Brendan, I thought Obama had to change some of his positions, like once being in favor of a single-payer health care system and then opposing it when he ran for president. If I'm not mistaken, the Clinton campaign ran a video clip of him making these comments to a local union supportive of his Senate run.
Second, doesn't this article kind of fly in the face of previous arguments you've made about fundamentals? If the economy was doing so well, why didn't Gore blow Bush away in the general election? Aren't you pinning Gore's loss somewhat on the media then, and not on the man himself?
Is Mitt Romney the Al Gore of 2012?
The media's coverage of Mitt Romney is showing signs of the pathologies that afflicted its coverage of Al Gore in the early stages of the 2000 presidential campaign. In 1999 and 2000, the press pummeled Gore, the presumed Democratic presidential nominee, with absurdly trivial and hostile reportin...
Brendan,
who on this planet even remotely thinks Jeb Bush would be a viable candidate?
Am I the only one thinking how the Bush name brand is still poison?
Twitter roundup
Brendan Nyhan Feb 28, 2011 at 1:51pm From my Twitter feed (2/24-2/28) BrendanNyhan Feb 28, 2011 at 1:44pm Huckabee: People who say Obama is "definitely going to be a one-term president" are "obviously political illiterates" http://bit.ly/ebVpmYGOP reality check: Obama looking tougher to ...
There seems to be a lot of blogs out there on the left that were shredding Reagan's legacy on the cusp of his 100th birthday.
Some writer at the WaPo listed five myths of his presidency, and the one that stands out the most was trying to convince readers his approval rating only averaged 52%, thus diminishing his popularity. Never mind the fact that his approval was in the 30s up until 1983. Or the fact that he beat Jimmy Carter 51%-41%, and Mondale 58%-40% in the popular vote (or that Reagan won all states but Minnesota - a state he lost by 3000 votes).
I don't know, it's kind of sad.
Conservatives, for their faults, do canonize him beyond what he deserves. He wasn't a saint, nor infallible. After all, how could Reagan simultaneously end the Cold War with the USSR if communism was an inherently flawed economic system to begin with?
For what it's worth, I would have voted for Reagan if I could have. Then again, I don't vote anymore.
Twitter roundup
Brendan Nyhan Feb 4, 2011 at 8:27pm Twitter roundup (2/1-2/4) BrendanNyhan Feb 4, 2011 at 8:24pm Very useful Jon Chait review of offensive Limbaugh comments about Obama since Jan. 2009: http://j.mp/fY5nVwThe Persecution Of Rush Limbaugh | The New Republic The New Republic covers politics...
metrichead.blogspot.com is now following bnyhan
Jan 21, 2011
Brendan,
Is part of the reason Dan Quayle never recovered from his image as a bumbling doofus because he never did anything (or enough) to raise his profile during the Clinton presidency, whereas then-Sen. Clinton did while Bush was in office?
Did it also hurt Quayle that the economy did well while Clinton was in office (fundamentals)?
Sarah Palin's poll numbers get even worse
Sarah Palin's image problems have gotten even worse. A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted January 14-16 (immediately after the controversy over her ham-handed response to the shootings in Arizona) finds that perceptions of Palin have declined significantly since October: A new na...
I wonder how good the economy was when Lincoln was campaigning for reelection.
Knowing Brendan, he's got a chart for that.
The misleading story of Harry Truman's comeback
It's boring to point out that divided government is bad for President Obama, so journalists and commentators have been trying to make silly up-is-down arguments about why GOP control of Congress might help him politically. These pundits frequently invoke the examples of Bill Clinton and Harry Tru...
Sorry Mr. Lessenberry, but I chose not to vote. I chose not to because...
...the more educated you are about elections, the more you understand how meaningless your vote is.
...the party I'm supposed to support is full of people who have either very extreme and intolerant views, or have just completely lost their mind. Voting for the other party is simply out of the question.
...I have a Master's Degree and can't even get so much as an interview for jobs I'm qualified and over-qualified for.
...even if you have an education, no one's going to offer you a job anyway. And they wonder why so many college educated people have left the state. It's not like there's a shortage of us around here.
...even if the state politicians go along with the experts and fund higher education to appropriate levels, all we'll have are more job-seekers with advanced degrees with nowhere to go. Do you think any of these high paid "experts" would be willing to give me their job if they're wrong? (Doubt it)
...as each year passes by, it seems as though the state just isn't worth investing in anymore.
Sorry if I sound bitter, but as much as I love Michigan, if I could have, I would've left a long time ago.
ESSAY: Voting Day - 10.02.2010
Today is Election Day. Michigan Radio’s Political Analyst Jack Lessenberry has been thinking about what it means to cast a vote. Hear Audio Story They’re voting now, in schools and churches and fire stations, all across Michigan. Standing in line, trying to stay warm, studying sample ballots ...
Oh come on, everyone makes a gaffe. I'm not an Obama supporter, but he doesn't really think John Boehner is an 'enemy' like the Taliban, (even though in reality, Obama and Boehner are 'enemies' politically).
Republicans overcome image gap
Last year, I noted that the GOP brand was in terrible shape and asked whether this would damage the party in the coming midterms. In recent months, however, the gap has narrowed, suggesting that the opposition party's image is a lagging indicator (the GOP's image also improved between June and No...
Oh, and thanks for the bingo cards. I promise you in no time flat, I'll be the uncle all the kids hate the most.
A preview of post-election storytelling
I'm bracing for an avalanche of nonsense tomorrow night about why Barack Obama is responsible for the expected Republican landslide. Here's a guide to what you should expect. It's long been obvious that Obama's political standing would decline as a result of the poor economy and the passage of ti...
Brendan, do you think the Tea Party has hurt Senate candidates in blue states (e.g., Linda McMahon) who hasn't associated his or herself with them?
A preview of post-election storytelling
I'm bracing for an avalanche of nonsense tomorrow night about why Barack Obama is responsible for the expected Republican landslide. Here's a guide to what you should expect. It's long been obvious that Obama's political standing would decline as a result of the poor economy and the passage of ti...
Thanks for the bingo chart, Brendan. With your permission, can I print a handful of them off and give them to my nieces and nephews as Christmas gifts?
A preview of post-election storytelling
I'm bracing for an avalanche of nonsense tomorrow night about why Barack Obama is responsible for the expected Republican landslide. Here's a guide to what you should expect. It's long been obvious that Obama's political standing would decline as a result of the poor economy and the passage of ti...
The Hill column was just awful, by the way. How many working class families with union ties are sitting around the kitchen table at dinner time talking about Elizabeth Warren?
Sometimes a man just needs to see the forest for the trees and realize that not all of your ilk knows the same people inside the beltway.
Twitter roundup
Brendan, is it possible that some people who answer "don't know" really could care less either way?
New Pew poll: Obama Muslim myth on the rise
The Pew Research Center released a new poll this morning updating its measure of public belief in the misperception that President Obama is a Muslim (coverage: NYT, WP, AP). The news is not good -- belief that Obama is a Muslim increased from 11% in March 2009 to 18% now, while belief that Obama ...
Goldberg's article seemed to be more of a pat on the back for himself.
I think I'll read the book anyway, but I hope he does a better job of explaining the historical context of fascism.
It is not, as Maher put it, "when corporations become the government."
Twitter roundup
From my Twitter feed (8/11-8/12) BrendanNyhan with 1 source BrendanNyhan Jonah Goldberg amusingly struggles to distinguish his offensive smear book from Kos's http://j.mp/b1wKCS Judging Books by Their Covers - The Corner - National Review Online Jonah Goldberg writes on NRO: Okay, so abo...
Leave it to Brendan Nyhan to suck all the fun out of football.
Twitter roundup
From my Twitter feed (8/12-8/13) BrendanNyhan with 1 source BrendanNyhan Keith Olbermann makes a vicious reference to Bill O'Reilly's physical abuse as a child http://j.mp/biNexr Keith Olbermann - Bill O'Reilly - Jennifer Aniston | Mediaite Last night, Bill O'Reilly made a flimsy argument...
How may primaries have been decided by one vote? If I'm a betting man, I'd say none. Even if there is one, it was obviously a rare occasion.
So if I'm a Dem/Rep wanting to vote for a weaker candidate from the other party, then go ahead. No harm.
I'm personally glad we have open primaries. Voters should be allowed to choose their next leader regardless of party.
Essay: Crossing the Line - 8.2.10
Ann Arbor businessman Rick Snyder’s hopes of winning the G-O-P nomination for governor may depend on Democrats and Independents crossing over to vote for him. Michigan Radio’s Political Analyst Jack Lessenberry wonders if that’s ethical… Hear Audio Story Over the weekend, I talked to a num...
I agree mostly with the above comment. Sarah Palin isn't politically savvy, but she is very Sarah-savvy. She knows she's a draw.
(All but the first, second, and fifth sentences could be attributed to a handful of Democratic politicians too, e.g., Al Sharpton).
Why would she ever want to be President? It's only $400,000 a year. She couldn't handle three full years of being the Governor in Alaska, where she made over $100k annually. She could probably make more hosting a talk show in less than two years what she could make if she served as President in eight years. Not to mention additional endorsement deals, book deals, and public speaking/appearance engagements she'll cash in on.
Why Hillary Clinton should be Sarah Palin's role model
Is Sarah Palin too polarizing to be elected president? This has become a central question in political commentary on the former Alaska governor and GOP vice presidential nominee. What people often fail to recognize, however, is that the debate over Palin's electability mirrors the debate over Hil...
I'm asking if there's a correlation between a President and a state Governor's popularity in off-year elections.
Clinton, a Democrat wins in 1992, loses the House and Senate in 1994; here in Michigan, John Engler, a Republican, carried the state for Governor in '94. In 1996, Clinton carried Michigan, despite Engler's victory two years prior. Do Governors like Engler of the opposition party suffer losses of support in off-year elections (i.e. Presidential election years) which helps the incumbent President?
More on presidential approval in midterm elections
Two important points of followup on Tuesday's post about how Matt Bai overhyped President Obama's approval rating as "ominous" for Democrats: 1. First, as Emory's Alan Abramowitz correctly pointed out in an email to me, "Seat exposure and the midterm dummy variable predict substantial Democratic ...
Bah, sorry.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/20/AR2010062003006.html?hpid=topnews
More on presidential approval in midterm elections
Two important points of followup on Tuesday's post about how Matt Bai overhyped President Obama's approval rating as "ominous" for Democrats: 1. First, as Emory's Alan Abramowitz correctly pointed out in an email to me, "Seat exposure and the midterm dummy variable predict substantial Democratic ...
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