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Perigee
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Yelnick Most people who run their own super fund (i.e. unlimited choice) have tended to have significantly overweight positions in cash, which has propbably helped a bit in recent times. But the real issue for superannuation here is the massive legislation burden that tends to increase year after year. The Government are again toying with more rule changes that in my view aims to enable them to start to exert greater control. The biggest super funds here are what we call industry funds, which are funds that group people in similr occupations (i.e. hospitality workers etc) - and of course they are run by unions or similar. A lot of legislation being spoken of or introduced seems to come from these sorts of funds/organisations. The banks here will also benefit from changes being mooted. There are currently billions of $$ in "lost super", or accounts where people are lost or uncontactable - the Government are now going to have these funds deposited into their coffers after a certain time. Many of these lost accounts are from overseas wrokers who come here for a period and then head back home - if you are very cycnical you could argue it is just another tax burden on employers and ends up in GOvt hands. There is also a likelihood of the 9% increasing to 12% of salary/wages, which the employer will pay. Of more conern is the actions we are starting to see as described earlier by the QLD Govt - this will only increase in the future. As far as NZ goes, they don't have a compulsory scheme but have introduced a form of voluntary super where additional matched payments I think are made for the member, but the levels are quite low. They call it Kiwisaver. I think the real issue with Aussie super and any similar arrangement is the heavy Government legislative control which means they can manipulate the rules as needed - and given the large pot of $$ available, it must be mightily tempting. When the 9% is put in (or more if employees sacrifice income), the Government take 15% as an immediate tax. There is also lump sum tax on encashing the benefit unless you are age 60, after which there is no tax. The Govt see super as a cash cow they will likely try and milk to the best of their ability.
Hi Yelnick I live in Australia and so am very conversant with our superannuation system. It is indeed 9% of incomes as a contribution, but a couple of points to tidy up on your comments: 1. There is virtually unlimited choice on investment portfolios and the fastest growing sector of superannuation is the do it yourself funds which allow virtually anything (i.e. we can buy 100% US muni bonds if we want to as an example) 2. The Government are starting to eye the honey pot and are starting to (by stealth) confiscate the super savings of many people, even though the people don't realise. As a recent example, one superannuation fund in which many public servants are members was effectively forced by the QLD Government (QLD is a state of Australia) to spend billions on a previously publicly owned tollroad that in my view has little prospect of reward in the future - so what the QLD Govt effectively do is confisacte forced super savings of their workers and pay doen the massive debt that had on this infrastructure project. So i think while super (forced saving) is good, the Government see this massive pool of funds and someone at ome stage (like QLD Govt) is going to want to get their hands on it - that is a real worry here. But the majority of sheeple are ignorant to this going on and this is but one small example - so my only advice is that while on paper it appears sound, you need to be able to control your own destiny or end up getting robbed blind while you aren't looking.
Oh Michael - you really are a hypocrite. You have spent the past several months giving a spray to anybody and everybody that has even remotely suggested there is a correlation between the economy and the market - and then you give us this little gem. Fed-Ex (FDX) which is an economic bellweather has announced today that they are on track to returning to DOUBLE DIGIT profit margins in their Express delivery business, which were last seen before the Recession. That's Bullish. Posted by: Michael | Wednesday, September 29, 2010 at 12:53 PM I don't propose to stoop to your level by rudely responding to your statement - but you really do need to go out back and give yourself an uppercut.
Yelnick The decennial pattern composite cycle has nailed 2010 so far, forecasting a flat to negative market for 2010 - for such a simple tool it has worked far better from a simple pattern perspective than most EW'ers. For those interested it is suggesting some sort of peak is due on 22nd/23rd - this decline (which my pattern is showing should last until at least late October) should launch a very powerful run up into April-June 2011. Of course, the uncanny accuracy so far in 2010 suggests the pattern is due to break at some point!
4-year cycle low not due in my opinion until 2012 - Yelnick, may be worth revisiting the Presidential and Decennial cycles as both have called the market pretty well this year and both suggest better buying opportunities in the months ahead. A peek at 2011 Decennial suggests a solid first half of the year (2011) so it may just be that the "surge" won't be here until Christmas time.
Toggle Commented Sep 9, 2010 on Was Last Week a Buying Panic? at Planet Yelnick
Michael I find it interesting that anytime someone questions your statements that you (after your usual holier than thou attitude and criticism) revert to asking them if they are a full time trader as though anyone other than that has no idea what they are talking about. Since you asked in a previous post whether I was a fulltime trader I will answer the question. However, it is not a question I believe anyone can answer until you provide your personal definition of what exactly defines "fulltime" and "trader". If, instead, you asked whether my income was totally sourced from financial markets, then the answer is yes. My methods don't require me to be a slave to my computer 5 days a week. In my view, a successful trader is one who achieves his or her desired rate of return on capital, irrespective of methodology or time spent. Trading is not about being right - it is about making money - I think there may be a lesson in that for you! So now I have answered your question, please answer Whitebears about the A/D line as i am sure everyone wishes to be enlightened. And I am also keen to hear more about the surge that was supposed to be starting late last month, just in case I missed it.
The Hindenburg Omen has a roughly 25% accuracy rate in predicting big market upheaval since 1987. In other words, it is just as worthless as Arch Crawford's "Cardinal Climax" and the "Death Cross". And yet bloggers continue to obsess over such bearish blather . . . Could it be because it FITS their bearish bias??? Posted by: Michael | Wednesday, August 25, 2010 at 06:10 PM Or could it be you post your pompous nonsense because you it FITS your bullish bias? The Hindenburg Omen has the same predictive power as the A/D line - you know Michael, the one you recently cited as beinbg the be all end all indicator that you and your mate JT used to pronounce at the end of July the SURGE into September. A lot of amateurs such as yourself (sorry - i am so trying to sound like you) use the A/D line but can i suggest that something that may help your future prognostications is using the common stock a/d line - if you actually knew the difference between the two you would understand why using operating comapnies may stand you in better stead than the old A/D line. Also, I, and no doubt at least 95% of the bloggers here would like to hear your response to Whitebears question: How about the A/D working for you, Michael? Answer that in an intelligent and coherent manner and i may change my view that you are nothing more than a little man with an overinflated ego who wishes he was something he isn't.
How's the A/D decline indicator faring for the guys who pumped it consistently a few days ago? Do you still think the bull market since march 2009 has yet to continue? Posted by: Whitebear | Thursday, August 12, 2010 at 02:44 PM Yep - that arrogant tosser Michael if I recall correctly was the guikty party. Oh and his best mate JT was extolling the virtues of new highs and surges while at the same time berating all and sundry for not being traders. hey JT - do yourself a favour and stick to telling us what happens after the event (which is what you are best at) as you suck at forecasting the future you pompous twit!
@Yelnick, How to address the concern that A/D has gone to an all-time high, which does not lend credence to the projection the rally since 2009 March has ended Like all mathematical averages or equations, i think one needs to understand what goes into them before determining whether it is actually telling you something or merely suits the purpose of the day. Why not use the common stock A-D line where it only utilises companies who actualy operate - perhaps because the picture on this one isn't as supportive of the bullish case. Whitebear also provides some compelling evidence that like all indicators they work some of the time but not all work all of the time. The old latin phrase "Caveat Emptor" comes to mind here!
Toggle Commented Aug 9, 2010 on A Top of Sorts is Near at Planet Yelnick
Forget the SP500 - wheat has been on a tear. It is limit up already tonight (Oz time)- amazing move up the past few weeks
Toggle Commented Aug 5, 2010 on A Top of Sorts is Near at Planet Yelnick
Jane Well said. I see people everyday living in dreamland who believe if they don't buy houses now they will never be able to "get a foot in" the property market here in Oz. Someone needs to tell these people that trees don't grow to the sky. I also find disgusting the fact that property spruikers like Christopher Joye and those hiding under guise of reputable property data providers are heavy advertisers in the Australian papers and are now virtually writing advertorials which the public lap up as being words of prophetic wisdom when in fact it is simply advertising - after all, their businesses would crumble if property didn't go up.
Or we get a longer retracement as B wave before C down into early March and then a rip roaring rally to higher (than Jan) highs into mid-year
Toggle Commented Feb 2, 2010 on Choppy Waves in a Pathetic Rally at Planet Yelnick
Thanks Taz - I have a turn date for 12 Feb in Copper so maybe a happy coincidence?
Toggle Commented Feb 1, 2010 on Monday Should Break The Pattern at Planet Yelnick
Taz I have 4515 on All Ords as a possible targetfor a bpounce - this jibe with what you are seeing?
Toggle Commented Feb 1, 2010 on Monday Should Break The Pattern at Planet Yelnick
Riordan, before you become too convinced abour deflation based in Japan, read this. http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north799.html
Taz April 2011 will be a high in my books so perhaps your cycle will flip polarity (or possibly mine). Either way, the date is probably more important as we can always see what the market is doing into it. FWIW I have Oz market down to late Feb/early March (4300 or so), up into mid year (possible new high) and then a panic decline to October which may be a good buy for a high in April 2011, though we may get a retest before 2011.
Yep, Yelnick. We (Oz) are in for a run down to end Feb/early March just like US market and then one final run up - whether we get a new high now or make it in 2nd quarter 2011 is debateable - either way come early March if the market has been going down into that date, you will want to be a buyer here and maybe moreso US. There are so many time setups pointing to this that it is high confidence. It will take until 2011 for the property market here to start to crater, but when it goes, heaven help those who are ill-prepared. Our RBA (central bank) are mindless fools no different to Bernanke who think they have magical powers and have saved Australia from recession etc - unfortunately the economic knowledge possesed by our RBA is equalled only by the journalists in this country who are, at best, a bumbling bunch of idiots looking for their next free lunch. Lucky country - I doubt it - same sort of idiots running the money in this country as the US. We are on borrowed time.
The decennial pattern on its own is a reasonable tool - however, to be used properly one must understand the longer term cycles as a means of context. As one example, in bear market cycles, the years ending in 8 (think 2008) tend to be down more than up. The more important aspect of timing rather than direction from the decennial pattern is the movement within the specified year. In other words, look at the patterns for all years ending in zero. Average all these together to calculate turn dates and as long as you know the opposite of up is down and vice versa you will probably beat the Elliotticians hands down this year!
Aussie market down this afternoon trade and often a reasonable precursor to US trade but Aussie up on better than expected employment numbers. Seems our Government can fudge the numbers with the best of them.
Toggle Commented Dec 10, 2009 on The Santa Rally May Have Started at Planet Yelnick
Yelnick I also think there were some library add-ons for Metastock - Elwave rings a bell but I don't have metastock anymore. I think MTPredictor has one of the better ones
Toggle Commented Nov 1, 2009 on Computerizing Wave Theory at Planet Yelnick
I think that many miss the point of subscriptions to services like EWI et al. If you do it because you think you will make a ton of money following someone else, then you are indeed a fool. Trading is 80% money management, 20% selection. Every day before I begin battle with the markets, I ask myself - do I want to be right or do I want to make money. I subscribe to GMP (the monthly roundup). I am not particularly interested in any count of theirs - I know from experience that if I hold a bias then I will naturally want to seek confirmation from other sources so I have taught myself to ignore what everyone else is saying.Why I subscribe is simple - I neither have the time nor the resources to obtain some of the data, statistics or otherwise observations that are oftem included. By way of case in point, this weekend's GMP contains a very good summary of the Goldmans history and charts various events against GS price. Will it help me make money - no. But I find it interesting and if I was further interested and wanted to trade it I would be encouraged to do my own further research. For those who consistently wish to denigrate the work of others, it is more a sad reflection on them. I am a short-term trader but have a fascination with longer-term cycles and so play around with that when time permits (just for fun) - FWIW I am still very confident that my longer term outlook of the US being in a C wave (off 2007 top) which is unfolding as a diagonal triangle will be correct. We have just finished the first wave up (A) of an (A)-(B)-(C) second wave of the diagonal triangle - the (B) wave should meander down into third quarter 2010 before a very sharp (C) wave takes us up into mid 2011. Then we get the third wave of the diagonal triangle down which many will mistake for the big P3. This should complete in 2012 before a rise into 2014 (4th wave with the obligatory overlap - the point of recognition for EWI that it is a DT) and panic to the final bottom with the usualthrowunder to complete the diagonal triangle in 2016. Longer term and medium term cycles all line up and increase the confidence. I do believe a DT will fit better than EWI current interpretation.
Toggle Commented Oct 31, 2009 on Last Chance to Get Out Comes Again at Planet Yelnick
Yep - good idea
Toggle Commented Oct 13, 2009 on housekeeping notice at Planet Yelnick