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Michael
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Yelnick - A most EXCELLENT post above summarizing valuable points and insight. Kudos!
Yelnick - I really think that the 1938-1942 market analogy that you have presented on several occasions and one that technician Louise Yamada has highlighted is the best parallel for today's market action. In Yamada's market parallel, 1932-1937 is analogous to 2002-2007. Moreover, the 1937-1938 style 49% decline was eerily similar to the decline of 2007-2008. Only time will tell if we complete the 1938-1942 analogy. Barron's recently noted this market parallel as well.
Prechter and all of his fanatical "cult-like" zealots went 50% short back on August 5th at SPX 1000. Anyone that bought AUGUST, SEPTEMBER, or OCTOBER put options on the indexes back then lost all of their money. Anyone that went short the S&P futures or the SPY's off his call are underwater by 8%. Anyone that bought the Dollar or sold short energy, coal, drilling, or natural-gas names lost a lot more than just 8%. They got CRUSHED. That's a FACT!
Toggle Commented Oct 24, 2009 on We May Have Just Topped at Planet Yelnick
Mr. Locker, Your consistent use of the phrase "imminent crash" is most telling. You are one who strikes me as most PERMA-BEARS who follow EWT and Robert Prechter like a fanatical religious cult. You are not interested in actually LISTENING to what the market is telling you, or for that matter, learning from others . . . Instead, you only want to "see" or "hear" what you want to see. Good Luck with that kind of methodology. It will not make you any money on a consistent basis. You will simply be throwing your risk capital out the window time and time again . . . while frequenting the numerous Perma-Bear Blogs on the Internet ( like Kenny's and Daneric's and Binve's ) where all of the aspiring traders hang-out whining about market-manipulation and how the Fed is the Devil because these 'kids' aren't able to TRADE AN UPTREND if their life depended on it. Just ask Daneric. Last time I checked, he's still working at his DAY job. If he was any good at his forecasting and interpretation of Elliott Wave, he'd be trading for a living. But he isn't. Hmmmm...
Toggle Commented Oct 23, 2009 on We May Have Just Topped at Planet Yelnick
Mr. Locker - Do not make the mistake that ALL indexes peak at the same time in order for a market to make a TOP. Going back over history, there are usually various divergences that occur over days, weeks, and sometimes months before a market TOPS. The "perma-bears" that follow Prechter around like religious fantatics that are members of a "cult" would have you believe that THE TOP is in. However, it is quite possible that (even in Elliott Wave terms) we have simply completed an "A-B-C" flat correction since the 1101 SPX high... which means the market still has a rally phase left in it which can head up towards 1112 or even 1121.
Toggle Commented Oct 23, 2009 on We May Have Just Topped at Planet Yelnick
Jing, Are you sure that we have moved down off yesterday's highs in an "impulsive" 5-wave fashion? I just don't see it. If anything, it would appear to be only 3-waves down off the 1101.36 SPX high down into today's 1074.31 low.
Toggle Commented Oct 22, 2009 on We May Have Just Topped at Planet Yelnick
Jing: I couldn't AGREE with you more. Mr. Market teaches some pretty good "lessons". The problem is . . . that most people have great difficulty LISTENING to Mr. Market. :)
Toggle Commented Oct 21, 2009 on Prechter Says The Top Is Close at Planet Yelnick
Jing - I would suggest that your disappointing experience as a 2004-2005 EWI subscriber was very similar to mine when I was a subscriber back in 1993. I came to the EXACT same conclusion that you did . . .that Bob Prechter and his camp were hell bent on interpreting every market move as a precursor for a major bear market. Most of the Elliott Wave bloggers that I have come across on the Internet seem to fall into this same "Perma-Bear" camp . . . "fitting" various technical indicators to their own BIAS while totally ignoring one's like the NYSE Cummulative A/D line that were clearly supportive of the Bull case. :)
Toggle Commented Oct 21, 2009 on Prechter Says The Top Is Close at Planet Yelnick
Jing, You'll have no argument from me that Prechter is NOT A TRADER. He's 50% short from August 5th via EWT and 100% short after his additional call on August 28th. In his October EWT he highlights this and says that S&P futures were trading at 1005 and 1038 respectively; thereby giving him an average price of 1021. Something tells me that he hasn't taken into consideration the "roll" from the Sept. contract into Dec. :)
Toggle Commented Oct 20, 2009 on Prechter Says The Top Is Close at Planet Yelnick
Yelnick - I take issue with anyone's claim that Prechter is only down about 50 points at the moment on his call to go short back in August. The fact of the matter is that Prechter issued his August newsletter 2-weeks early (for timing purposes) on August 5th and recommended an initial short-position for those traders with risk capital. At that time, the SPX was right around 1000. Furthermore, if anyone has been short the energy, mining, drilling, coal, and natural gas sectors of the equity market since August, they've been completely crushed! Back to trading. :)
Toggle Commented Oct 20, 2009 on Prechter Says The Top Is Close at Planet Yelnick
I shorted the COAL sector this morning on BTU's blow-out numbers . . . I think we could see a typical SELL on the NEWS scenario here, especially due to the fact that these stocks (along with most energy names) have seen nearly 11 straight up days in a row. Got to TRADE it a bit though. Should see HUGE volatility. :)
Toggle Commented Oct 20, 2009 on More Investment Thoughts for Yasi at Planet Yelnick
Kenny and Daneric have changed their counts more times than Charro changes her clothes . . . Following these Elliott Wave bloggers and their "interpretation" and understanding of EW principles is a complete waste of time. If anything, they can be used as a pretty solid CONTRARY indicator!
Ned - I don't need to be able to count this rally as "impulsive" in order to make money trading from the LONG SIDE and be a BULL. I believe that your question is one that is more "academic" than practical when it comes to actually pulling the trigger and trading the equity market. I've been trading the coal and natural gas producers from the LONG SIDE for quite some time, along with the some of the drillers like DO, RIG, HP, and PTEN. While Ellioticians were fretting over wave counts and structures this past Summer, I simply concentrated on one sector of the market (energy) and took advantage of the excess liquidity ( and weaker dollar ) that has allowed for very strong uptrends in this sector. Feel free to take a look at the Daily charts of ACI, BTU, CNX, CLF, or PTEN and let me know if identifying an "impulsive" wave structure in the SPX would have helped you MAKE MONEY in these stocks.
Toggle Commented Oct 16, 2009 on The Psychology of This Market at Planet Yelnick
Ned - I learned a number of things from PTJ not the least of which is being a "two-way" trader and not falling into the trap of only being able to TRADE from ONE SIDE of the market, but both bull and bear trends. He also taught me a lot about how to size up sentiment in the market place. Interestingly enough, my having been bullish during this rally ( which reminds me a lot of the move off the March 2003 bottom ) has irked some of the more infamous EWT bloggers on the internet... such as Kenny, Daneric, and Binve. I have been "booted" off their blogs for having pointed out the bullish technical case for the market, as well as their most dangerous "Pick the Top" and "P3 Cheerleading" campaign. After a couple of months, I finally came to the conclusion that these people are merely "kids" on the Internet who enjoy massaging their elitist ego's in between their "day" job or college classes. They do not TRADE FOR A LIVING, and certainly would have been fired from any trading desk had they continued to be so stubbornly bearish and short for the past 200 SPX points. It took me awhile to figure out that these "kids" have no idea what they are doing, have a horrible understanding of how some of the most BASIC and classic of technical indicators work, and are continually "fitting" indicators ( like VIX, $BPSPX, RSI, and MACD just to name a few ) to the price action that they HOPE and WISH to see! Like youngsters that are full of "piss and vinegar" . . . these kids have far too great of an Ego to be successful traders because they are horrible at ADMITTING WHEN THEY ARE WRONG. As Stevie Cohen points out so well in his "Market Wizards" interview, "My best traders are only right 55% of the time . . ." - - - one needs to be able to admit when they are wrong in order to be successful. None of the Kenny's or Daneric's or Binve's of the EWT blogosphere have been able to show me that they are able to admit when they're wrong. In fact, they go out of their way to be "stubbornly" wrong because they (and their Ego) are so afraid that if they turn into a Bull they will actually wind-up marking the top in the market. That is how pathetically big these kids EGOS are! They actually believe that if they turn bullish, they will wind-up "creating" the Top! The bottomline is that to be as WRONG as they have been for the last several months tells me that they DO NOT TRADE for a living. No one could be short for that long of a period and continue "beating the same drum" that they do. It's funny to see how they continue to post pretty charts, but these charts offer no VALUE whatsoever and offer ZERO capability of becoming an ACTIONABLE TRADING PLAN. If you don't believe me, simply add up how many times their "Primary" count has been thrown out the window for an "Alternate" count as the market has marched higher . . . week after week after week. As a result, I find these "bloggers" and their one-dimensional P3 "cheerleading" cult to be tremendous CONTRARY indicators. I believe that Paul Tudor Jones would tend to agree with me. :)
Toggle Commented Oct 16, 2009 on The Psychology of This Market at Planet Yelnick
dt - Last night Daneric went on one of his typical elitist and "holier than thou" RANTS that was so toxic and full of discrimination and elitism that he actually pulled the thread and deleted it. The guy is so full of himself that he's a danger to anyone that reads him. Kind of like Prechter. :)
Virginia Jim - I worked for Paul Tudor Jones back in 1986. At that time ( leading up to the Crash of '87 ) he had a very small 800 square foot office on lower Broadway across from what was the Merrill Lynch building ( which he moved into later ). There was a receptionist, two gals working on an order desk, an attorney/compliance gal, and a few traders such as myself that he had hired to put into various commodity pits on the trading floor in #4 World Trade Center. He only had ONE quant. His name was Peter Borish and he came from a short career stint at the NY Fed. Peter did some number crunching for Paul, but I would suggest that if anything, Paul used a number of skills ( not just EWT or cycles from Peter's research ) to double the $150 million he had under management heading into the Crash of '87. In fact, PTJ realized what was happening and jumped all over the "flight to quality" by taking a position limit in T-Bond futures that ( at the time were yielding 10% ) and underwent a HUGE RALLY that was extremely profitable to Paul and his Fund.
Toggle Commented Oct 16, 2009 on The Psychology of This Market at Planet Yelnick
Min - Trust me when I tell you that Prechter's bearish call in 1993 was very similar to his 2003 call. His uncanny ability to lose money on a consistent basis is incredible.
One of the "perma-bear" bloggers by the name of KENNY just blacklisted a poster whose last post was the following: Today 12:46 PM "Until we get impulsive action and high volume selling, the path of least resistence is still higher...screw targets..." Aztrader
Toggle Commented Oct 15, 2009 on ZZ Top at Planet Yelnick
Mark Hurlbert says that $100,000 invested/traded off of Prechter's advice since 1985 would have resulted in a 98% loss of one's capital. http://www.erictyson.com/articles/20090616 How's that for a dose of cold, hard, reality?
P.S. I've just noticed that yet another delusional follower/blogger of Robert Prechter's and "portal" for EWI . . . DANERIC has once again come to Prechter's defense. DANERIC states that Prechter and EWI recommended going to a full short position on August 28th when the Dow Jones was roughly 9600. What DANERIC conveniently ignores in his puppy-dog loyalty to EWI is that Prechter came out with a special report on AUGUST 5th recommending that his subscribers initiate a SHORT-POSITION if they have risk capital. In fact, as I recall Prechter made a big deal out of this monthly report coming out two-weeks early because he wanted to ensure a sense of TIMING to his recommendation! However, the Dow Jones was not at 9600 on August 5th. It was at 9280 and the SPX was trading around 1000. In DANERIC'S defense of Prechter's call, DANERIC goes on to say that such a recommendation was an "investment" ( as opposed to a Trade ) and is only down 4% (as of today) if one had taken his recommendation on August 28th. I guess DANERIC never got the AUGUST 5th report from EWI. If he did, he wouldn't be looking like the total FOOL that he is claiming only a 4% loss. But given his tremendous BIAS to EWI and Prechter, he'd probably do his best to "spin" and twist the facts just the same. Buyer beware.
Agreed 100%. If I could have $100 for every time Prechter (or Hochberg) switched their primary count to an alternative count, I'd be a very rich man. Anyone remember how Prechter said that crude oil wasn't suppose to go past $70 in 2008? How about his stubbornly horrible primary count back in 1993? I do. How ironic that "Virginia Jim" speaks to duration that involves decades, while Prechter appears on Bloomberg TV and other media outlets all throughout 2009 marketing his short-term predictions and cadre of subscription services, including Hochberg's STU. Defamation? Don't make me laugh "Virginia Jim". Sounds like someone could use a reality check. :)
Jim - I think that Bob Prechter's track record speaks for itself... it's downright abysmal. I've read the EWT on and off since 1987 and he's been absolutely horrible in his timing. There are so many examples of this that it isn't even worth the time and effort to highlight just how dismal he's been over the years. His latest recommendation to short the market back in early August at roughly 1000 is yet another prime example of how bad he's been. Anyone interested in being 92 handles underwater? Not me. Although his socio-economic commentary about public mood and sentiment is fascinating, it is of very little value when it comes to making money as a TRADER in the markets. I would suggest that a TRADER is far better off using a few simple tools of technical analysis ( such as the NYSE Cummulative A/D line ) and a couple of inter-market relationships ( such as the US Dollar and Crude Oil ) to make money. And make no mistake, all of these "bloggers" like the Kenny's and Daneric's of the world are simply portals for EWI. Lot's of pretty charts, but stubbornly wrong and unable to trade their way out of a paper-bag if their life depended on it!
Easy there Nedster. My, you have such a thin "skin". I probably trade more shares in ONE DAY then you trade in a quarter, or perhaps even a year . . . But if you want to continue to think that VOLUME is important, go right ahead and be my guest.
Toggle Commented Oct 14, 2009 on Missed My Dow10K Bet By 6 Weeks at Planet Yelnick
jwalker - That's pretty funny . . . "Carolan is one of the few people on this planet whose record makes Prechter look good!" By the way, many of the "perma-bears" that continue to grasp at anything they can (including the '87 Crash) were most likely in diapers during that year . . . and are totally oblivious that the 30-year long bond was offering a most competitive 10% yield for portfolio managers to take advantage of. That is certainly NOT THE CASE today.
Quite honestly, I couldn't care less about Volume. My clearing firm pays me based on PRICE, not volume! :)
Toggle Commented Oct 14, 2009 on Missed My Dow10K Bet By 6 Weeks at Planet Yelnick