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Virginia Jim
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Rob and Free, DOCTOR McHugh, will ultimately be right. But, IN MY OPINION, you may ignore his applications of supposed applications of traditional TA patterns and EW. I say this because he was WRONG about the July 11, 2009 H&S Top and even more recently he was WRONG about his "reverse H&S" with the head at March 9, 2009. I exchanged emails with DOCTOR McHugh and warned him that the latter "reverse H&S" which is based on the Head and Shoulders BOTTOM first identified and codified by Edwards and Magee was WRONG. The volume pattern should have a NOTICEABLY increasing volume to the right of the head per E&M. In contrast, the OPPOSITE is true; volume has declined very noticeably. DOCTOR McHugh informed me that he watched 'thousands' and H&S and that E&M were not the only authority on H&S. That "reverse H&S" had a measurement objective that McHugh touted for months as 1229. Didn't get there did it? At least, not yet. Epistemic arrogance. His EW is just plain cuckoo too. I do like his Hindenburg and other indicators. Jim
Toggle Commented Nov 8, 2009 on Last Chance is About Over at Planet Yelnick
1929-1987 Spiral Calendar Analog update. The 1929-1987 SC Analog I’ve speculated may be occurring specifies 4 dates based on the 1987 event which mark monuments that may be occurring in 2009. Those four dates are computed based upon Chris Carolan’s incredible study “The Spiral Calendar” and the F25 spiral (an algorithm based on the 25th Fibonacci series number). The computation is simply: [Ignore the date for the “First Bottom” because Carolan did not find that 1929 predicted the 1987 date for the first bottom.] If you look at the implied fractal which is aligned on the ‘Final High’ of each year, you have the following fractal comparison: The first two of the four dates have been accurate to within 1 trading day. Further, the market has declined as much as 7% in 2009 after that ‘Final High’. In 1929 declined 20% after the ‘Final High’ and before the ‘Lower High’. If the first wave of the decline (between the ‘Final High’ and the ‘Secondary High’) is only 7%, I would still consider the Analog in ‘rhythm’ with 1929 and 1987. However, my expectations, ASIDE FROM THE SC ANALOG, are that this first wave will be far deeper than 1987 and comparable to 1929, e.g. 20%. 20% would take the markets to roughly the July 11, 2009 lows. That’s my speculation, not that of the SC Analog. So, if you look at the above chart, note that after each year’s green ascending trend line (the lower trend line of PERFECTLY formed Edwards and Magee ascending bearish wedges) BREAKS, price falls further before completing the first wave decline. In 1929 that further decline was substantially greater than 1987. I expect (again, not the SC Analog, but me) the decline to manifest in the next 2 trading weeks and then bounce from a V bottom into a secondary high at or near November 23, 2009. That’s a severe drop in less than two weeks. It is highly improbable but IF 1) we are following the 1929-2987 SC Analog AND 2) it is following more closely the 1929 version, THEN a much bigger drop is warranted IMO. If it is working but prefers the 1987 model, then the 7% decline already achieved maybe that’s all there is for the first wave and the market goes sideways until after November 23 (not my preferred view). Jim
Toggle Commented Nov 8, 2009 on Last Chance is About Over at Planet Yelnick
Here's a quickie update on the 1929-1987 Spiral Calendar Analog that I proposed in September. July 11, 2009 was a successful prediction for the “significant low” of the Analog (July 10, a Friday was the significant low). October 16, 2009 is tentatively a successful prediction to within 1 trading day (Monday, October 19 was the highest DJIA closing high to date). The remaining SC dates are November 23, 2009 and December 10, 2009 (ignore the “First bottom on the attached computation; it's there only as a notation): The chart analog is looking like the following (red arrow is the “significant low” and correlates the 3 years and the green arrows are the “final high”): I’ll continue to update until the Analog, in all likelihood, fails. Jim
Toggle Commented Oct 27, 2009 on The Zoran Project at Planet Yelnick
Dear Mr. Yelnick, what a great chart on DJTA/Nasdaq. At a PE of 144, the market is running on fumes. To give you a little background, when I first posted the 1929-1987 analogy in September, I was hesitant because I knew it would be targeted as a Crash Call. Well, all my crash calls EXCEPT last August have been wrong. What I was trying to do was call attention to a possible (but very unlikely) replication of 1929 and 1987. And I wanted to do it in advance rather than in arrears in the unlikely (infinitely improbable) event it did replicate. Well, July 11, the first of 4 dates was a perfect hit. AND October 16 was one day off. The closing high for DJIA was October 19. When DJIA hit 10117 and a new intraday high on October 21, it couldn't hold and did not close above the October 19 high. So, the second date is, tentatively, a success. [Tentatively because a new recovery high close can occur any day.] So, it appears the probabilities have changed dramatically since September. Still unlikely that Chris Carolan's four dates will replicate via F25, but probably less UNlikely. Suffice it to say, I'm spooked. The first wave of primary wave 3 will tell. In 1929 it was 17%, in 1987 it was 10%. I'm expecting it to be bigger than both because this, IMO, is the "Greater Great Depression" and intermediate 1 of primary 3 of cycle c should be greater. Further, as Carolan emailed me, he doesn't think crashes should occur in December (the 'crash' date is December 10) as supported by work by Puetz, Carolan and Elliades. That was one of my 2 original hesitations. So I think this first wave could be such a doozie, all will think the December intermediate 3 of primary 3 will be its continuance. One last consideration. If ever there should be a tax selling season, this should be one. Just some thoughts for this near last week of crash season, Jim
Update on the 1929-1987 Spiral Calendar analog. Here's a note about the progress of the analogy. July 11, 2009,the "significant low" was successfully predicted by the SC analog to the day. Well, I didn't notice it but yesterday DJIA and SPX made new recovery highs that qualify, IMO, as evidence that the October 16, 2009 prediction was a "hit." Remember, any projection cannot be more accurate than the measurement interval, namely a day. The analog said October 16 so the "final highest high" before the decline is October 15, October 16 or October 19. We could make a further high today or Monday but after that, any new high invalidates the 'hit' and, likely, the analog. Here's my chart for the analog updated the last 2 days trading: Today I received a gracious comment from Chris Carolan who could accept a high at this point but is dubious of a crash in December. I fully agree that December is NOT in character with historic crashes and pointed him to my 'rationalization' of how the crash begins earlier making December a continuation. Anyway here is a link to what Chris posted last night concerning the 192901987 SC analog: Good luck, Jim
Toggle Commented Oct 16, 2009 on The Psychology of This Market at Planet Yelnick
What I’ve developed below is very elementary because there are well developed perceptions of volume and market movements. But I’m an amateur and I don’t know where to go to get the spot on research. And my problem was somewhat immediate and, possibly unique as I’ll develop below. The Spiral Calendar speculation I posted September 25 and updated yesterday successfully predicted the significant pre run-up low July 11, 2009, projects that the markets will achieve a highest recovery high October 16, 2009 (tomorrow or Monday), a secondary high November 23, 2009 and the ‘resonance’ of the 1929 and 1987 crashes on December 10, 2009. It’s all numerology without any hint of causality. Take it for what it is. My posts yesterday and September 25 can give you the Spiral Calendar derivations of those four dates and why there are preliminary indications that it is replicating 1929 and 1987 in real time. If tomorrow brings a new recovery high, that will be another small bit of evidence the dates are working. Here’s what the implied fractal looks like when you correlate the “significant low” date for the three years: For various reasons I believe December 10, 2009, should it occur, will be merely a severe continuation of what will begin in the next 2 weeks; theoretically, Elliott intermediate wave 1 of primary wave 3 of cycle wave c. That’s big enough to produce crashworthiness. In 1929 the first wave before the crash was a leisurely 10% and in 1987 the first wave was 17%. If that is the case, those 4 dates only give modest clues of ‘when.’ One clue is that it will occur after the final recovery highest high, October 16 (tomorrow) and before the secondary high, November 23, 2009. Carolan couldn’t get the Spiral Calendar to do better than that in 1929 vs. 1987. I have other hunches but here’s one thing that struck me. Paul Tudor Jones’ quants (see the 60 Minutes documentary of PTJ), who were trying to identify the 1987 crash in 1986 were using 1) Elliott Wave, 2) a 1929 analog and 3) volume. [I assume PTJ was successful given that he's a multi billionaire now.] Well, I don’t know any Ellioticians that are bulls. The credible counts, er, the only counts, are counting the final days. Most have already been wrong several times (me included). From an EW perspective, this is the 17th inning of the ball game. And you have an analog above that is positioned based upon a spooky Spiral Calendar projection that has already proven one of the four dates true and is close to proving the second. So what’s left in the PTJ method to narrow in on the date? Volume. If you take volume for the period from the significant low in 1929, 1987 and 2009 and look at it closely, just before the 1929 and 1987 crashes you’ll see a spike. I’m not talking about a mere 25%, I’m talking bigger. Here’s a small part of my worksheet. Take a look at the volume spikes highlighted in pink: If I showed the entire spreadsheet, you’d see that I went back to the final ‘significant low’ of that year and computed various measures of the percentage increase or decrease in volume each day, each day divided by the ten day moving average, and a two day moving average divided by the ten day. It mostly works out the same but using a moving average gets rid of some one-day wonders. Yes, there were a couple days that volume increased over the previous day by more than 25% but never as much as 30%. When you look at the two day MA divided by the ten day, those abnormal days became less than 20%. That was not true in the closing days before 1929 and 1987 crashes. In both years, those pink highlights show extreme increased volume. In character, 1929 is different than 1987 because there were several days of ‘crashworthy’ decline proportions. Hence, several more pink boxes. But the point is clear to me. If volume spikes precipitously in the next two weeks, you’d better watch out. I don’t expect there will be much warning if the Spiral Calendar dates are correct; a very big “IF” that might be clarified in the next 2 trading days (see my prior essays). But volume's the only clue I will have if this first wave down (which is equally a big “IF”) occurs. In an ideal world, we’d have a new recovery high tomorrow on elevated panic buying or short squeeze panic fervor with one of the OPEX of old’s reversal down; a 40% increase in volume on an outside down day. That, to me, would be a clear sign that Monday would be a tough day. For entirely independent reasons, I’m looking at October 26. Regardless, if tomorrow is a new recovery high (implying the 4 dates are working), I’m going to be levered short by the end of the day. For me, the volume will be somewhat academic. But if you’re long and see a spike in volume in the next two weeks, you might want to recall those pre crash volume spikes in pink on the attached spreadsheet. And best of luck to everyone, Jim
Toggle Commented Oct 16, 2009 on The Psychology of This Market at Planet Yelnick
Okay, I give. You guys win the test of will and intelligence. And in surrender, I promise to read your book when it published and appears on the syllabus for post grad TA at Princeton. Just send me an email. Jim
Michael, I think Robert Precter's record is excellent. And I think his contribution to TA dwarfs that of any person in my lifetime. You are welcome for your opinion and I for mine. The really telling commentary is this; your need for voicing unnecessary off topic defamation is the only thing that speaks for itself and volumes about yourself. Jim
Just scanning a couple comments, let me clarify. This model predicts a high October 16 now and it predicted it almost a month ago when I first posted the speculation here. That isn't bearish. You can't have it both ways. You can't call it bearish a month ago when everyone was bearish and it predicted another month of highs and now call it perma bearish. Second, the model is what it is....pure numerology. Criticize it for lacking any hint of causality as I did, but not that its biased. That's absurd. It is only math for goodness sake. It's not manipulated, rationalized, interpolated. It can't be interpreted, averaged or otherwise biased by slight. You can verify it. It simply is. And third, it is tentative. On July 11, 2009, when this jumble of number garbage predicted July 11 was a LOW while even CNBC was extolling the H&S Top and a drop to March lows, this speculation predicted a high October 16. But the odds against the model predicting July 11 a low, October 16 a high, November 23 a secondary high....the odds, I'd submit are 1 in infinity. Now that July 11 is PROVEN and October 16, is still in play and very close to proven, the odds are far far better. maybe 'trifecta' level of odds (1 in 500,000) but better than one in infinity...e.g. less worse. All I can say is if you see yet one more higher high in the next 3 days (the point estimate plus 1 day margin for error of the interval estimate), you might consider where your money is safe. Its just a bunch of numbers. I don't think this thing will work and I didn't design it to do so. All I know is that if I saw a UFO I probably wouldn't tell anyone after the fact; I'd far prefer they be watching with me. And one last thing. Why disparage the reputations of two fine men, Prechter and Carolan? I don't know a thing about Carolan other than from reading his well written and thoughtful book but I feel very close to Prechter's work. He makes mistakes like anyone else, but he is a certifiable genius IMO. The only rationale for destroying another man's life's work like that is sophomoric penis envy. Just an opinion of the level of those who attack others. Good luck everyone and best wishes, Jim
An egregious error regarding the 1987 "First bottom" date. Here is the second chart in which the error occurs. I wouldn't exactly elevate this to a crash call. My objective was to improve my abysmal market timing for options purposes and I stumbled on this. The "coincidents" were interesting last month when I first posted this here, on Daneric's site and Slope of Hope. The continued up move from that point, something a perma bear like me would never have predicted, makes it now more interesting. I want a lot of people to see it in the UNLIKELY event that it does occur. Jim
October 16, 2009 (+-1 day) might become a very important day. This is a follow up on my post dated September 25, 2009. It should be in my archive and will give closer detail on how I came up with Spiral Calendar projections I’ll discuss below. The preamble to this “follow up” condenses and says the same thing as the September 25, 2009 post. Chris Carolan discovered a Fibonacci/lunar relation between 1929 and 1987 and documented it in his excellent book “The Spiral Calendar”. He identified 4 dates in 1929 that reappeared near exactly (within the projection measurement error of 1 day) in 1987. Forgetting about his astrological reference to the lunar months in relation to the first equinox of each year, he related 1987 to 1929 by taking the square root of the 29th (“F29”) number in the Fibonacci sequence (514229 or “F29”) and multiplying by the synodic lunar interval or 29.5306 day. So, the square root of 514229 is 717.0976 X 29.5306 = 21176.32 days. Take 4 key dates in 1929 add 21176.32 days and you get the comparable date in 1987 in relation to that crash year: I discovered and have not seen it written elsewhere that 2009 preliminarily appears to be reflecting the Spiral Calendar dates in 1987 and 1929. So what? It’s easy to project any of the Spiral Calendar Fibonacci computations forward…..just math. And you can take the 4 dates in 1929 and project them by every Spiral Calendar sequence you won’t get a single date in 2009. But you can with 1987. The 25th (“F25”) Fibonacci Spiral Calendar sequence gives you the four dates explained in the above Excel chart in 2009; July 11, 2009 (significant low), October 16, 2009 (final highest high in the crash year), November 23, 2009 (secondary high before a crash) and December 10, 2009 (crash). So, you can make a 1987 projection to 2009; what makes this other than pure numerology? Nothing. Any extrapolation of history to the future is numerology absent physical or deterministic mathematical support. Gaussian statistics (bell curve) and variants, even given widely accepted causal rationalization, is numerology; it’s just very persuasive and accepted. The Spiral Calendar projection is different only in that it is not very persuasive. There isn’t a whiff of causality. But there are two ‘conincidents’ that preliminarily support these projections. First, F29 interval between 1929 and 1987 is 21176 days or 58.0 years and the F25 interval from 1987 to 2009 is 8088 days or22.1 years. Their relation is .381, a near perfect and highly prominent Fibonacci relation. Second, July 11, 2009 is the first of four projected dates, is now behind us AND IT WORKED. July 11, 2009 should have been a prominent low next preceding the final highest high before the crash. Recall on July 11, 2009 everyone was following the unconfirmed head and shoulders top and vastly expecting a crash. It didn’t happen. Instead, July 11, 2009 was a clearly significant and widely unanticipated bottom (July 11 was actually a Saturday and July 10 was the bottom). I’ve updated a chart I posted September 25 and this is what the IMPLIED FRACTAL looks like to date: If one had noticed this 4 date projection on July 10, 2009, you would have gone long to October 16, 2009 (not followed the H&S fiasco) and would have made, yet to be determined, but probably greater than 24% on an unlevered long trade. Then you would have gone short to sometime in early November and long into the 3rd date of November 23, 2009 (the F25 projected secondary high before the crash). Here’s an idea of the proportions of price change between the four dates (note that I’ve added a fifth date, namely the first bottom after the highest high): So, IF October is a valid projection, the 1929 and 1987 models would indicate a substantial first wave decline of 10% to 17%. I think it could be greater than either because we are in the last stages of the peak crash season (as documented by Stephen Puetz, Chris Carolan and Peter Eliades). December 10 is late for a crash. And, many Ellioticians believe the projected wave commencing after October 16 is at a very high degree of Elliot Wave trend; EWI would show it as intermediate (1) of primary circle 3, of cycle c, of supercycle (a) of grand supercycle (IV). Three notes of caution. Chris Carolan has not identified his own Spiral Calendar projection from 1987 to 2009 as significant, either by oversight or has dismissed it. I cannot confirm it either way despite efforts to contact him and his followers. Carolan’s website shows his computation based on 2007 and 2008 dates as indicating a top on October 11, which has not worked (more than one day off at this point). Second, Carolan originally noted the coincidence of 1929 versus 1987 dates in relation to the number of new moons following the spring equinox but distilled his thinking in terms of Fibonacci and synodic lunar intervals. 2009 is one moon greater than 1929 and 1987 so that gave me pause when I first considered these dates. I’ve rationalized the contradiction in noting the true computation is not relative to the equinox but it is a Fibonacci computation in lunar intervals. Third, this is the purest form of numerology; not hint of causality. So, all we have is four dates and two “coincidents”. If I’d projected this six months ago, and said it would occur BECAUSE of a .381 relation in the years between 2009 and 1987 divided by the years between 1987 and 1929, I’d say the chances of four monument dates in 2009 being successful would be incalculable. If I’d noted that item and July 11, 2009 turned out to be a successful projection, I might say the odds of the other 3 being successful were within the realm of number system but still negligible. But, since we are narrowing in on October 16, 2009 and despite the emotions in the last months since July 11, 2009, it is still viable. I am very interested. If October 16, 2009 prints a new recover high (or October 15 or 19), I will be giving far greater weight to the implications of this model. I’ll be expecting an Elliot Wave primary 3 of cycle c to begin very soon thereafter. Granted it’s only an intermediate 1 of primary 3, but it can be crashworthy IMO. Remember the character a c wave is that it is not expected by anyone; certainly, with a blowoff top in the making today, October 14, 2009 on top of INTC and JPM earnings, who expects a crash? But who expected, on July 11, 2009, that the market would not have fulfilled the great head and shoulders top de jour of that date much less been 24% higher three months later? Good luck, Jim