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>>This market is toast. By that I mean hot, buttery toast whose aroma will waft up just as the Dow, Nasdaq, S and P, and bonds will continue to rise<< Michael L.; Curious. Why close 2/3rds of your long positions on October 14th then? I'm not a Hochner fan either by the way.
Toggle Commented Oct 22, 2009 on Prechter Says The Top Is Close at Planet Yelnick
Well I'm stopped out of my NDX positions at morning low. Looking for SPX/DOW to make new highs unconfirmed by NAZ/NDX. If this takes place the trusty Hochner contrary play still works. Yelnick: >>trying to short before the top is a Vegas play.<< I TOTALLY AGREE Jing: >>see a correction and then a new high in select indexes, with the kind of divergences you talked about. Kind of like July - October 2007 setup.<< THAT'S WHAT WE CAN HOPE FOR BUT AM FLEXIBE AND OPEN TO OTHER POSSIBILITIES.
Toggle Commented Oct 21, 2009 on Prechter Says The Top Is Close at Planet Yelnick
Michael, Jing, Michael L. same conclusions here sad to say. Are you aware there are 2 distinct EWI websites? Yes and often times they have opposing outlooks on the same markets for similar time frames. Never understood any legitimate reasoning for this and was very disillusioned with EWI after repeated queries with no real answers from anyone there. Jing regarding A/D line, I've noticed that too. Based on past experiences this could go on for a while but it's definitely a good clue I've learned to take seriously, it's one of the indicators that helped me pull off an awesome 2008 and a pretty decent 2009 so far. A few other things are missing for me though. Close to a long term top I'm used to seeing DOW and SPX make new highs with NDX and sometimes NAZ failing to do so. Also use to seeing more 52 week lows compared to highs than current levels. What do you think?
Toggle Commented Oct 21, 2009 on Prechter Says The Top Is Close at Planet Yelnick
Thanks Yelnick; I should take time to read everything right? My schedule has been whack this last week or so. Hochner thinks it will subdivide higher?...hmmm... I hate it when we coincide, it has been cake going counter his top count. Will tighten my stops. If he's/I'm right, it shouldn't matter. If the usual turns out to be true I'll be getting out a bit higher than I would otherwise —can't lose.
Toggle Commented Oct 21, 2009 on Prechter Says The Top Is Close at Planet Yelnick
Please diregard the LAST line of the previous post
Toggle Commented Oct 20, 2009 on Prechter Says The Top Is Close at Planet Yelnick
Normally, enthusiastic support for Bob's preffered count would cause me to do the opposite —in this case relax stops on my 7½ month old NDX longs. Unfortunately, my "M Theory" shows potential for a market turn between Oct 18, 2009 to February 2010. Unfortunately, as "N Theory" mentioned earlier, it's too early to tell how big/small a turn. Since Bob is an intellectual he could be off in his timing by months to years so does anyone know what Hochner is STUing at this point? it would becorrection or an from Oct 18th - Feb 2010.
Toggle Commented Oct 20, 2009 on Prechter Says The Top Is Close at Planet Yelnick
Jing; How long have you been an EWI subscriber?
Toggle Commented Oct 20, 2009 on Prechter Says The Top Is Close at Planet Yelnick
Sorry Jing; I read the article on Saturday and it was dated Oct. 19, 2009. I didn't realize it had been out that long. I've been on the road and lost track of time I guess. Looks like more upside on Tuesday also? I must say I am now a nervous bull. In November my NDX long positions will be a Fibonacci 8 months old, probably not a bad time to exit if not stopped out by then. Good luck to you.
Yelnick; My bad. I re-read the article and It read a bit diferently after a full night's rest. I still have a gut feeling about this that keeps gnawing at me that has made me a nervous bull. We'll have to see what happens. I'm tightening my stops a bit more just in case at any rate. With dollar bulls at 3%(?) some kind of surprise out of left field wouldn't surprise me.
Bernanke Article in Bloomberg: Bernanke says fed will begin increasing interest rates. This would strengthen dollar and may be a catalyst for a top in markets. We'll see how market reacts. See Jing NDX may just gap down Monday and your DJ30 count may still be viable. let's see what happens.
I show the major trend in the U.S. major indexes can top anytime from now to Feb 2010. I can definitely see Dow going higher but dollar not necessarily that much lower if at all. I don't have a bullet-proof E-Wave count to substantiate this at the moment but it doesn't invalidate the possibility. Elliott is a great tool but not necessarily the best tool at every point in time. I think dollar at 50 is still at least 2 years away.
Sure thing. Don't throw away your DJ30 count just yet though. Look at it with that other data point in mind instead. NDX could morph into something impulsive yet. I've seen stranger things happen. Only thing you could say for sure is the DJ30 count is somewhat weakened by this at this moment. NDX could be at the start of a 1-2, 1-2 ready for a gap down on Monday. One step at a time with caution and you'll stay safe and on top of things. I personally don't care if I miss wave 1 down and wave 2 up. Would rather wait to jump in at start of a wave 3. A lot safer and you save a lot of bad/costly false alarms. Catch my drift? Good to know you are open to learning and that idiots like Dorkoteo are an insignificant minority.
Jan/Doroteo/Gartman you still smell like ass —even after washing your rear end for over 3 hours. Go wash up some more. Ever since Neely had his way with you you just haven't been the same —you poor idiot, there is just no disguising your offensiveness.
Toggle Commented Oct 16, 2009 on The Psychology of This Market at Planet Yelnick
Jing good observation but NDX is usually the first to faint in these situations. If Dow is heading south first, odds are higher that this is a correction with more upside to come. No disrespect intended just food for thought and something to keep an eye on?
Yelnick, thanks for the historical rundown. My awareness of Prechter started in 2000 and have not seen much strength. The strength of his convictions is not something you can trade off of. I'd rather see an unbiased conviction based on real world developments or something a bit more practical. After all Elliott developed E-Waves as a tool to help understand MARKET behavior. Your input helps but you know how it is, one has the most reality with what oneself has actually experienced. To me E-Waves is just another TA tool and if at times it isn't the best tool to get the job done I leave it and go grab something else. Many Ellioticians use E-Waves too much like a divining rod or an oracle. Prechter himself has written that he is able to see an e-wave pattern in everything. To me if the result is unpredictable it may be evidence to the contrary. That being said I am willing to take an unbiased look. The good call in Feb 09 is a start but only a start.
Spirit; Thanks for sharing I'm short on time right now but I will read your link later on. I guess you're saying earlier that Prechter made a good call in February of closing his SPX short? I agree. I just wish I had the certainty that it wasn't just luck because every time he called a top in 2003, 2004 and I've heard from others in 2005, he was also very certain. What do you think?
Michael; I believe it. What I experienced from 2000 to 2004 was pretty obsessive. From 2000 to 2002 it served him as it was in alignment with the trend but when the up trend took hold he and Hochner just kept on plowing on obsessively. That kind of behavior originates deep from within so I can totally seem him doing that in 1993 as well. A year ago, a subscriber posted on this blog how his famous October 1987 call actually went down. Turns out he gave his subscribers the "heads up" after the fact and so was useless to them in terms of getting out of harm's way. Prechter himself recognized in an EWT that I read somtime in 2004(?) that he has been ineffective at reading the markets since 1987.
Jan/Doroteo/Gartman you smell like ass. Go wash up
Toggle Commented Oct 16, 2009 on The Psychology of This Market at Planet Yelnick
Jan/Doroteo you smell like ass. Go wash up
Toggle Commented Oct 16, 2009 on The Psychology of This Market at Planet Yelnick
Vipul: Understand. I just haven't traded spx at all in 2009. so don't have anything useful for you at the moment. In countertrend moves I find NDX tends to lead up and often rolls over first as well so I've kept focused on it throughout 2009. Time permiting, I'll take a look at SPX some more and if I come up with something substantially better I'll let you know. Sorry. As far as Gann's quote, it keeps ME out of trouble, so it's workable for me to over emphasize it.
Toggle Commented Oct 16, 2009 on The Psychology of This Market at Planet Yelnick
>>Why do you claim that I am Gartman or Jan Diage? Doroteo Arango<< Your sister told me plus both of you smell like ass
Toggle Commented Oct 16, 2009 on The Psychology of This Market at Planet Yelnick
Keep hiding Fartman or you'll get stepped on some more.
Toggle Commented Oct 16, 2009 on The Psychology of This Market at Planet Yelnick
Gartman=Jan Diage=Doroteo=Some poor fool too insecure to use his real name sfter losing all his money and blaming everyone other than himself for it. What a pathetic loser.
Toggle Commented Oct 16, 2009 on The Psychology of This Market at Planet Yelnick
Jan Diage is Doroteo Arango and he is upset because he got taken advantage of by Neely. What a looooooooosssssseeeeerrrrrrr. I think I'll tell your sister about your problem
Toggle Commented Oct 16, 2009 on The Psychology of This Market at Planet Yelnick
Too bad for you I don't give a Damn
Toggle Commented Oct 16, 2009 on The Psychology of This Market at Planet Yelnick