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Michael Locker
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Going back to the old way would make it more difficult for recalcitrant offenders to clog the site with ad hominem attacks. But the new system is not without its drawbacks. To use an analogy from the markets... The "bulls" would be in favor of a short term correction that would give you a chance to see if this market floats. In other words, do you want to let this play out a bit more and let the markets tell you what to do? Or do you want to second guess the markets and decide now? What wave are we in and what is your confidence level? It would be interesting to note what people's thoughts are on the privacy/safety issue, which might tell you where we are in the big picture of social mood. Would it be possible to track comments from those who believe commentator participation is reduced by the policy or whether there are benefits? Peter Kendall has provided fascinating analysis of things as seemingly trivial as movie genres and clothing styles and they are as insightful for me as anything. I take note of what I see around me and attempt to mentally label the ripples of mood, whether they be more lipstick worn by secretary in front lobby or new hairstyles or whether barbershops crowded or relatively empty. The bear picture (it looked like a raccoon jumping a stream, but the absence of a tail confirmed bear) seems to me a sign that, at least on a short-term basis we are nearing a bottom. Bear photographs tend to represent latent bullish sentiment when they are in a natural context. I do not believe this was photoshopped. I believe the photographer prompted the animal to jump the way it did and, possibly, used threats or cruelty. The result is a haunting, searing image. But at what price? I do not know for certain. I remain optimistic about the prospect for using filtering on posts when personal attacks are the issue, but I will chime in with MY two cents and say perhaps wait a week or so and see where we are before --like the bear-- you "jump in."
I am not sure if we are going to have an "imminent crash" as I put it earlier. I am looking for a big (greater than 40%) downside move in most markets but it may take days or even a month. Like the brown bear, I am not inherently attuned to keep my positions despite contrary evidence (the definition of insanity as someone once put it). I am interested in the pattern of spikes in the image posted above and wonder if they might symbolize the pain that many who have been caught on the wrong side of the bull have felt. The bull (symbolizing those looking for moves to higher levels) may just have his day! We shall see. I am not a blind Precther follower but I will admit that he was right in 87! My god was he right!!! He has been wrong almost always since but, again, even if you are down 99% by following his advice you might just have a chance to make it up if you invest wisely etc.
Toggle Commented Oct 24, 2009 on More Real Estate Nonsense UPDATED at Planet Yelnick
Thanks to all of you for your advice and amplifications. The image above (of a bear of unspecified type) epitomizes the ambivalence many of you seem to be feeling. Some of you are looking for a run to 10300. Others expect Precther to be vindicated with a return so large and fast that it makes his 98% loss record irrelevant in the long run. Hulbert may have noted that PRecther loses 15+ percent a year but Hulbert does not realize that, even with only 2% of your capital remaining, well placed bets will put you ahead of the curve should the imminent crash take markets down fast and hard and put other portfolios in the trash bin. I, for one, plan to take advantage of the imminent crash and ferocious decline with the same zest of the bear in the photo. I will be "jumping" for joy when my puts and shorts make me wealthy while others are mired in the "stream" of losses and despondency. That photo is priceless. It will be a real "I told you so" in a couple of days when this Top of all Tops has become apparent to the avergage Schmo in the street!
Toggle Commented Oct 23, 2009 on We May Have Just Topped at Planet Yelnick
Ah! She has just pointed out it lacks tail. This is a bear. sorry about so many posts but very haunting/strange image
Toggle Commented Oct 23, 2009 on We May Have Just Topped at Planet Yelnick
For what it's worth, my wife thinks raccoon also but not sure about staged. She told me to write that she thinks Elliott's Wave is garbage! Happily, I have my own mind of things.
Toggle Commented Oct 23, 2009 on We May Have Just Topped at Planet Yelnick
Or are we to believe a raccoon can jump 8' into the air for no apparent reason near a hazard (water)?? And a photographer happened to be there to catch this once-in-an-eon moment???!
Toggle Commented Oct 23, 2009 on We May Have Just Topped at Planet Yelnick
Looking at photo again I believe it is staged. I believe racoon was pushed off (unseen) platform or stump to try to get an unusual photograph. I'm not a tree hugging vegetarian sort but I would certainly add my voice to NOT supporting this by using photo. Raccoons are intelligent and obviously have emotions and no doubt being tricked or harmed by trusted owner is not good!
Toggle Commented Oct 23, 2009 on We May Have Just Topped at Planet Yelnick
My computer screen is very small but I am concerned about four features of animal in picture. 1 - dark band across eyes 2 - seems smallish 3 - very light colored fur (which is more in line with a grizzly which is a bear most definitely NOT small) 4 - extremely agile If you say it's a bear I will defer because as I say my screen is small and resolution may be poor. But I am thinking raccoon. I don't think it makes a huge difference (although you lose "bearishness" connotation) because act of jumping back in retained in any case. Am I the only one who thinks we are dealing with a raccoon? Do you know where I could see photo larger or in context? Perhaps there is another similar animal in cropped portion.
Toggle Commented Oct 23, 2009 on We May Have Just Topped at Planet Yelnick
Okay, thank you, very helpful. so 1. Important top IS in. 2. Animal is a bear --water symbolizes significant short position. Bear also symbol of one who expects decline in market. 3. We will have a down move over the next week (5 trading days?) that will be sharper than the previous 5 days. You did not mention other averages like transport Wilshire etc. I find it hard to imagine that they will hold up while the Dow SAP and Naz are collapsing. Do you agree?
Toggle Commented Oct 23, 2009 on We May Have Just Topped at Planet Yelnick
I am trying to get a sense of things. Could someone please correct me if I am wrong? 1-- The top was not put in for some indices but was in for the Dow before yesterday (Weds) as per Yelnick post above. A very important (possibly muliyear?) top was probably put in today on Dow. 2-- Tomorrow will be a very strong down day (presumably a very large-scale Wave 2?). Is this the gist of what has been posted above? Also, is that a raccoon or a bear and what is significance of trying to cross stream? Thank you.
Toggle Commented Oct 23, 2009 on We May Have Just Topped at Planet Yelnick
I'm excited that the top is probably in. But a bit puzzled because we closed near the highs for the day. Was the top the intra-day high? Also: is this a multi-year top?
Toggle Commented Oct 22, 2009 on We May Have Just Topped at Planet Yelnick
Yes, it painted a gravestone doji or, as we used to call 'em in the shops, a double reverse head-and-necktomy. Plus, the golden mean retrace is telling us that this inflection point may just be the last before a "Pyromaniac's Delight" sets up for 2010. Closely related to, but only complementary to, the Hindenburg Omen, it means a fierce interspersion of gentle cascades and shallow upward thrusts. We shall see. Right now, I am standing aside. I will stand inside next week and outside if things begin to heat up in the A/D line.
Toggle Commented Oct 22, 2009 on The Zoran Project at Planet Yelnick
This market is toast. By that I mean hot, buttery toast whose aroma will waft up just as the Dow, Nasdaq, S and P, and bonds will continue to rise. The economy is recovering, sanity is returning, and The US is as safe as anything. Where are you going to put your money? Japan?? Look at their national debt! I trust Obama and Geithner. Hochner, not so much.
Toggle Commented Oct 21, 2009 on Prechter Says The Top Is Close at Planet Yelnick
You can think of the herd as focusing on a particular guru. Roubini was the guru of 2008. Prechter had his 15 minutes in 1987. Try to become familiar with peripheral economists and market watchers and picture them on the front page. If you can do it, you might want to start taking positions based on their models.
Toggle Commented Oct 21, 2009 on Prechter Says The Top Is Close at Planet Yelnick
I will be nibbling on puts when I see more euphoria. I don't mind seeing lots of bears but I want the bulls to be gloating more and I want to see more people totally believing the recession is over.
Toggle Commented Oct 19, 2009 on The New Normal at Planet Yelnick
jest havin fun hope you and your portfolio are fine
Toggle Commented Oct 19, 2009 on The New Normal at Planet Yelnick
... , Ned Bushong, whose dying words were, "When do the bulls start their celebration? Where's the volume?" Onlookers sighed and shook their heads sadly as poor Ned bled to death, but were grateful it came faster than the demise of his slowly, inexorably bleeding portfolio.
Toggle Commented Oct 19, 2009 on The New Normal at Planet Yelnick
... and it just dropped off 100 Dow points and sped off safely.
Toggle Commented Oct 19, 2009 on The New Normal at Planet Yelnick
You have told me what HAS happened. Now tell me what WILL happen. Should I buy REITS? Houses? How will they do over the next year? How about over the next five years? Please let me know your opinion. Thanks.
Toggle Commented Oct 15, 2009 on Real Estate Strikes Back at Planet Yelnick
I don't think the buy and hold crowd looks stupid. For one thing, many buy and holders essentially entered the market more than ten years ago. For another: Dividends haven't been high but they've been about as good or better than bank accounts. That said, I look for a crash/market shutdown/hyperinflation/economic catastrophe scenario eventually. Maybe in twenty years or so.
Toggle Commented Oct 14, 2009 on ZZ Top at Planet Yelnick
Yeah, I'm happy to celebrate! I sold most of my long position today and will hold onto about a third of it. I have been bullish since the spring and, thankfully, I've been right. Still bullish over the next year but neutral over the next few months.
Toggle Commented Oct 14, 2009 on Missed My Dow10K Bet By 6 Weeks at Planet Yelnick
Michael, you may be right but this runup has been pretty extraordinary and we are surely due for a scary pullback before too long. There are quite a few coalescing problems in the world --I think Pakistan will be moving to the lead story, for example-- and one of them is bound to coalesce the random ripples of public fear into a self-reinforcing shape.