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Al from Oz
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Remember I said previously that this 'bullish reactionary impulsive rally as part of the overall Bearish corrective rally could continue for another week or two, even a month or two', well on friday 7 August strong performance if the $SPX comes back to "kiss" its previous resistance oscilation at 1002.4 to 1005 level (above 1000 level) then the $SPX could explode to the upside with even more power than we have seen in the last month. This is the "4 bites at the cherry" and "'retrace kiss away" phinominon in concert at a whole 1000 point level which is unprecidented. Notice we have just gone through 10K on the Dow, it took 4 attempts on the same day. I expect it to oscilate a little at this level. Its a conventional pattern in whole 10 point or 100 point level that we saw between 2003 and 2008 on most Bullish markets. Add to that we are at a very signifigant whole even 1000 point level, not just a unit 10 point or 100 point level but 1000 pointlevel and we could see an extreamly powerfull but short lived rally to the upside $SPX 1045 Points (5% move) or $SPX 1149 Points (15% move) Bear in mind due to the continuously high volitility readings we are seeing and have constantly seen over the last 2 years there has been no sign of abaiting volitility let alone capitulation so the Major trend which is DOWN is still DOWN as we have not seen these manditory signs. That being said for the moment there is a consolidation of powerfull bullish allignment happening from many different sectors. If I use Joe DiNapoli's DiNapoli Level analysis (because its the quickest "ball park" manual (calculator) based analysis method to use on these minor trend patterns. The $SPX 9th March '09 Interday Low of @ 665.8 points as Point A The $SPX 12th Jun '09 High of @ 946 points as Point B, and the $SPX 10 July '09 higher Low of @ 879 points as Point C, Then we can project a contracted objective point (COP), an Objective Point(OP) and an Expanded Objective Point (XOP) COP =.618(B-A)+C which = $SPX 1045 Points OP = B-A+C which = $SPX 1149 Points XOP = 1.618(B-A)+C = $SPX 1315 Points Look at the ludicrous volitility on the day after the SPX closed on SPX 1045. It was huge. SPX 1149 will be the same. Dont let any nincompoop tell you we are at the end of the "manic depressive market phase" . http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/28/markets/thebuzz/index.htm Just watch the stupid increase in volitility again as we get closer to 1149. Heaven help us all if we should get an explosive bloww of tops move after 1149 to 1315. Its a long way from 1315 down to below 665. For anyone who doubts just go to the home of the Dow Jones log in and scrutinize the historical volitility levels. Map them on a time base if you want. The volitility hasn't washed out. Theres still lots of silly money that will get wacked.
Toggle Commented Oct 15, 2009 on ZZ Top at Planet Yelnick