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The concern I have about Wednesday is given it is Veterans Day volume will be extremely light and who knows how high they can take it. However at the close today, Tony Caldaro said "short-term momentum ended extremely overbought."
Toggle Commented Nov 9, 2009 on Dollar is Not Done at Planet Yelnick
Sorry for any confuson, eventhorizon. I clarified that it was AMZN not AAPL that was upgraded with a target of $160. It was AAPL that traded over $200, not AMZN.
Toggle Commented Nov 9, 2009 on Last Chance is About Over at Planet Yelnick
Don't get me wrong, I am not backing or endorsing Daneric and have observed that he has suddenly become somewhat bullish over the weekend, particularly with respect to the financials. I have tried to poke holes in some of what he says. The Wilshire 5000 has no hope of reaching the retracement levels he points out given the horrendous technical condition of the Russell 2000 and the BKX. Given the BKX hasn't even retraced 21.4%, he comes up with the theory that it is going to rally and lead the market higher. It strikes me that the BKX is simply a classic negative divergence.
Toggle Commented Nov 9, 2009 on Last Chance is About Over at Planet Yelnick
Unfortunately no edit function. I meant AMZN was upgraded on Friday, not AAPL.
Toggle Commented Nov 8, 2009 on Last Chance is About Over at Planet Yelnick
Daneric cautions about a potential upgrade of the financials to spur this market higher in one last gasp. GE was upgraded on Friday with targets of $18 and $19, respectively, by 2 brokerage firms. Although the company is a bellwether, it is a dog. Also AAPL was upgraded with a $160 target. Meredith Whitney's upgrade of GS in July might have saved the market then. God help us if there is an upgrade of GS as a result of "favorble valuation", when the stock is now in confirmed downtrend. The BKX is particularly weak and hasn't even had a 21.4% retracement off its lows. Given 5 more banks failed on Friday and another 400 - 500 may follow suit, how could anyone upgrade the financial sector at this time? Stranger things have happened!
Toggle Commented Nov 8, 2009 on Last Chance is About Over at Planet Yelnick
I agree. Goldman Sachs, particularly, is the canary in the coal mine as is AAPL. Other key stocks to watch are JPM and FCX. I belive AMZN will push higher to $130/131 on Monday and it will come unglued. Look for the US$ to rally and commodities to tank. I have a feeling that the gold bugs will be quite disappointed in the near term, but I could be wrong on that one. There has also been a lot of talk about the low AAII reading at 22% signaling more market upside. I don't know how this poll is conducted. If they are including people who are unemployed, facing foreclosure or in foreclosure or have left the stock marketk forever, than no wonder the readings are so low. It strikes me that despite that reading there is a lot of complacency right now.
Toggle Commented Nov 8, 2009 on Last Chance is About Over at Planet Yelnick
There are also others calling for the market to continue to rally, including Tim Knight over at Slope of Hope. Schaeffer's warns of short covering and the market to move higher if SPX 1080 is exceeded. They view 1100 and 1120 as being resistance and 1040 as being support. I have read that a break of 1040 activates the H&S downside projections. Mark Arbeter of S&P states that a break of 1025 measures to S&P 950. Tim Knight (SOH) is adamant that the market will move higher from here into options expiration and is advising people not to buy put options. He bases his opinion to some extent on 21-day cycles. I have read someone else comment on th 21-day cycle this weekend. Howver, Andre Gratian, who is a cycles guy, says there should be a cycle low on November 13th. I think the market will tank into the 13th/16th, rally the week of OPEX and tank into late November/December 2, which are the dates I referred to above (McHugh/Wood/Swenlin).
Toggle Commented Nov 8, 2009 on Last Chance is About Over at Planet Yelnick
Daneric comments this weekend that he wouldn't be surprised to see the DJIA hit a new high next, unconfirmed by the transports. Tim Wood has an update this weekend on Dow Theory on www.financialsense.com Watch for a closing high above DJIA 10092.20 set on October 20. This is the key, not the intraday #. Watch for a closing high above $TRAN 4045.11 set o October 21. This isn't likely to be hit even intraday in my view.
Toggle Commented Nov 8, 2009 on Last Chance is About Over at Planet Yelnick
I have sent McHugh e-mails recently that he hasn't acknowledged either. I didn't subscribe to him back in 2003. However, in the summer of 2008 he provided a phi-mate turn date for September and warned of a pending crash. His September phi-mate turn date coincided with the start of the September/October crash/decline to the day. In this weekend's newsletter he once again provides the math behind November 9th's phi-mate turn date, which coincides with the important Bradley model date. I like his Hindenburg Omen work, phi-mate turn date calls and comments on the McClellan Oscillator. I believe the July 2008 H&S pattern might have been activated and can't fault McHugh for the call. If you recall, the market continued to flounder after the July 8th bottom. On July 15th, just before Goldman Sachs earnings release, Meredith Whitney came out with an upgrade on GS and the market gapped up that day and never looked back. Her call is what turned the market around. God help us if their is a similar call next week, particularly with Wednesday being Veterans' Day and will likely be extremely light volume. McHugh comments in his weekend newsletter that there was a small move in the McClellan Oscillator on Friday, and there should be a LARGE MOVE in the market on Monday or Tuesday. This call on the MO never seems to fail. Based on the 60-minute stochastics, he suggest that the SPX and DJIA may decline on Monday. His guidance for NDX and RUT is indecisive.
Toggle Commented Nov 8, 2009 on Last Chance is About Over at Planet Yelnick
One of the reasons the market has been more buoyant than expected this year is the positive effects of the 10-year cycle which is now coming to an end, and the newly-rising 6-year cycle. The 30-year trend cycle being in decline is exacerbated by the fact that the 40-year cycle is also in decline. The final "hard down" phase for any cycle, regardless of duration, is roughly the last 10% of the cycle's length. The "hard down" phase of the 40-year cycle is equal to 4 years, ie. 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014. The last 3 years of the current 30-year cycle, ie. 2012, 2013 and 2014, will encompass its "hard down" phase. The 120-year cycle will complete in 2014. The market will no longer have the benefit of the 10 year cycle beyond this year. That will mean that the money supply regulators will have only one more major cycle to work with. The Kress 6-year cycle is still in its ascending phase until 2011, until it peaks. The above references are based on articles Cliff Droke posted on financialsense and safehaven in January and July of this year. Cliff follows the cycles work of Samuel Kress. Several months ago, Tim Wood stated that he expects the next 4-year cycle low to be in late 2011/early 2012. I haven't read or heard anything that has caused him to change his mind. I suspect the latter part of 2011 and beyond is when the wheels will truly fall off the stock market and that may be when we see SPX 400 or lower. In fact, Robert McHugh states that he sees some troubling patterns that suggest that some of the major stock markets could approach ZERO!
Toggle Commented Nov 8, 2009 on Last Chance is About Over at Planet Yelnick
Keep an eye on a confirmed Hindenburg Omen. We haven't had one. As a consequence I do not anticipate a crash near-term. In June 2008 we had a confirmed Hindenburg Omen and had a subsequent crash. We also had a confirmed Hindenburg Omen in 1987. Not positive, but we may have had one in 1998 when we had the brutal correction at the time of the Long-Term Capital Management debacle.
Toggle Commented Nov 8, 2009 on Last Chance is About Over at Planet Yelnick
I omitted a word in the above post. After $181 the word "trillion" should be added. Not billion, trillion.
Toggle Commented Nov 8, 2009 on Last Chance is About Over at Planet Yelnick
I believe that if the US hadn't created the weapons of mass destruction nonsense and invaded Irag in 2003 that there would have been another leg down in the bear market, and Prechter would have been right. The bear market and recession in the eary 1990s ended as a result of the US invading Iraq in the Desert Storm campaign. I am not suggesting that only another war will get the US out of its funk, but stranger things have happened. I also believe that the bear market will not end until 2014 at a minimum and it may last until 2018. There are several problems that remain unresolved and others still developing. To name a few: 1. Alt-A and Option Arm mortgage resets over the next three years will result in increased payments, more forclosures and lower housing prices. 2. Prime mortgages are now becoming a problem. 3. The consumer is becoming single-mindedly focused on paying down debt rather than spending money on things they realize they can't afford anytime soon, viz the $14.9 billion reduction in consumer credit on Friday versus expectations of $9.9 billion. 4. A looming $3.5 trillion commercial mortgage problem. Wilbur Ross was on CNBC earlier this week saying it is a tragedy waiting to happen. 5. An insolvent US financial system. 400 to 500 more banks are likely to fail. 6. The FDIC is already tapping into a $100 billion line of credit from the Treasury, who is bankrupt. More printing presses may be required. 7. An insolvent social security system. 8. An insolvent Medicaid system. 9. etc etc I read somewhere this week that when the US deficit/debt and points 7 and 8 are taken into consideration, the US is $181 offside. That does not take into consideration unfunded liabilities in state and federal pension plans. We may be in a Grand Supercycle decline that will last for years. I recommend members acquaint themselves with the sign posts of Kondratieff winter because we are getting further and further into it.
Toggle Commented Nov 8, 2009 on Last Chance is About Over at Planet Yelnick
Any rally in February 2010 would likely start after wave 1 down concludes; ie. pink (v) of green (i).
Toggle Commented Nov 7, 2009 on Last Chance is About Over at Planet Yelnick
Excellent write-up. The 960 level you refer to is more like 957.50 and would be just above the top of Intermediate A back on June 11th. I think that stopping point would be consistent with what I refer to a pink (iii) of green (iii), ie. the 3rd of a 3rd. It is possible that level is reached in late November/early December, which would coincide with: Robert McHugh's December 2 phi-mate turn date; Tim Wood's trading cycle low of late November/early December; and Carl Swenlin's 20-week cycle low of late November. If that unfolded it would certainly put a damper on Thanksgiving and Black Friday!
Toggle Commented Nov 7, 2009 on Last Chance is About Over at Planet Yelnick
As a result of the rally from the March lows exceeding six months and the Dow Theory trend confirmation, Tim Wood maintains that the secular bear market we are currently in will not resemble either the 1929 - 1932 or 1938 - 1942 experience, but will more resemble the 1966 - 1974 secular bear market. Perhaps it will ultimately resemble none of the above
Another concern from an EW wave count perspective is the labelling of the waves off the July Int. B low of 869.32. I believe many have denoted the end of the 1st wave as being 1039.47. Given the pullback from 1080.15, the wave 3 top, to 1019.95 the wave 4 bottom, there would have been overlap. After this occurred, Daneric relabelled wave 1 to 1018.00 and had an orthodox wave 2 labelling of 991.97, rather than 978.51. In so doing, there was no overlap between waves 1 and 4. Does this work for you, Yelnick?
Apparently Daneric is going to come up with some alternate wave counts this weekend.
I believe I have seen a wave count similar to what you propose, Yelnick. Neither Kenny or Daneric's wave count makes sense to me in that their pink (i) and pink (ii) is so early in the rally. However, I am not sure that I can count 5 waves up to Kenny's black i at 1059.62. At any rate, assuming that is a valid wave count, as you suggest there is more latitude for a valid pullback below Tony's pink (i) of 1079.47 which could be violated in this wave 4 pullback.