This is's Typepad Profile.
Join Typepad and start following's activity
Join Now!
Already a member? Sign In
Recent Activity
The Barrow webcam is showing lots of ice floating by from the East. Phil.
Toggle Commented Apr 16, 2016 on Beaufort quick update at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Bill, I don't know what grok means either! I thought the explanation on the NSIDC was fairly clear, I took it that the equation given was just an example and was more interested in the form of the dependence (~sq rt), than the exact terms.
Toggle Commented Apr 7, 2016 on Winter analysis addendum at Arctic Sea Ice
There's a good page on this at NSIDC: It describes the growth of seaice as a function of FDD, there's even an equation. The relationship is approximately the square root of FDD so with a substantial reduction in FDD over the season then the thermodynamic component of ice thickness growth will be less. To assess this component it would be good to have a graph of the absolute FDD value. Phil.
Toggle Commented Apr 6, 2016 on Winter analysis addendum at Arctic Sea Ice
John, the CT data as published is 2 days behind the NSIDC and Wipneus calculates the upcoming values based on the current NSIDC values. He just does what CT does with the same data, he just does it 2 days faster. Phil.
Toggle Commented Mar 16, 2016 on Mad Max 2: The Arctic Warrior at Arctic Sea Ice
According to the data 2016 is already 4th lowest at 14.73 million km2, just behind 2007's minimum, and almost 350K behind 2011 and record holder 2006 (14.39 million km2, the grey trend line just below the 2011 green trend line). Current global at an annual low of 14.57
adamskj, it happened in 2007. and 2011 Not just the runway either: Phil.
Toggle Commented Apr 15, 2015 on PIOMAS April 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
A couple of years ago a norwegian light catamaran navigated both the northern sea route and the NW passage in one calendar year. It was presented in the media around the globe as a result of an ever shrinking ice cap. Not a word about the hi-tech, lightweight catamaran which was in fact able to sail across solid ice with a slick of sun melted water on top. It was new technology that made the trip possible, Not new melting. But it all was great propaganda for the melting story. Propaganda that no warming advocate bothers to check or to make any fuss about. That's why the warmist establishment is not trusted: there is no will to even check a story or a scientific paper that supports one's own point of view. From the context you are apparently talking about Ousland and his yacht "Northern Passage", in which case your accusations are wrong, no such sailing over ice occurred. Time for you to check your facts:
Toggle Commented Sep 10, 2014 on PIOMAS September 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Also usually the yachts sailing the passage traverse the Cambridge Bay-Gjoa Havn-Resolute leg in late August, plenty of time for that to clear by then.
RE folke_kelm | April 07, 2014 at 08:43 The Russians continued to operate research bases on floating ice since 2003 until last year (SP-40). However they have been having difficulty finding ice floes thick enough to support the bases. Last year's had to be abandoned in May. This year they have decided to stop installing such bases: "Head of the Russian Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring Agency Aleksander Frolov says to RIA Novosti. “The last floating stations have been placed far from the Russian sector of the Arctic, almost in the Canadian sector. At our side there is practically no ice.”"
Toggle Commented Apr 7, 2014 on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
During the 70's there was ice age scares and we had 1 low sunspot solar cycle and a very cold AMO. In popular magazines but the scientific consensus was more properly represented by H H Lamb in the summary of his book "Climatic History and the Future": "It is to be noted here that there is no necessary contradiction between forecast expectations of (a) some renewed (or continuation of) slight cooling of world climate for a few decades to come, e.g., from volcanic or solar activity variations: (b) an abrupt warming due to the effect of increasing carbon dioxide, lasting some centuries until fossil fuels are exhausted and a while thereafter; and this followed in turn by (c) a glaciation lasting (like the previous ones) for many thousands of years."
As Svalgaard among others have shown the trend in PMOD is due to sensor degradation, his recommendation is: "“What I would do is to use PMOD until 1996 and then calculate the quantity D = – 0.002836 t + 0.00093266 t^2 – 0.00010134 t^3 W/m2, which is the degradation of PMOD where t is the time in years since 1996, then calculate PMOD(t) – D(t).” If you do that the significant reduction in solar output goes away. Phil.
lateintheday My limited understanding of the wavelengths stuff is that the absorption bands for CO2 are at the longwave end of the scale and that this corresponds to a very cold temperature, such as that found at top, or near top of atmosphere. I suppose what I'm asking is, if the distribution of OLR at the poles from the lower troposphere level is therefore more heavily biased to wavelengths that CO2 absorbs. The shift in the emission band to longer wavelengths is small, a somewhat higher fraction of the band will be in the CO2 absorption band but the total emitted will be will be more effected, perhaps about 50% less than at 25ºC. Phil.
Toggle Commented Sep 20, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
For those of us not expert in photographic reconnaissance, is there a current update on the scenic Nares Strait? Here's a shot from MODIS from yesterday, showing the break up near the mouth of the Petermann glacier, looks like it will break-up over the next couple of days.
Toggle Commented Jul 24, 2013 on Nares Express is ready to leave at Arctic Sea Ice
I noticed on Modis today that there's significant break-up south of Banks so the W end of the NWP is starting to open up.
Neil the current radar animation (3 days) is even more dramatic!
Yes Neil the daytime temperatures in the 50s have certainly hastened the surface melting. The radar animation is quite interesting too, up until last night the fast ice extended out to about 5km but overnight it has cracked about 2km offshore and started to move. Presumably one of the offshore pressure ridges that held it in place has melted enough to release. Phil.
Andy Celsius himself set 0ºC as the boiling point of tap water and 100ºC as the freezing point. "Other way 'round my friend, other way 'round." No the original poster is correct, after Celsius's death Linneus reversed it! Strange but true.
Toggle Commented Apr 19, 2013 on Perception of the Arctic at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi guys, I just saw this on CNN and thought it may be of interest. Does anyone have any more details? Phil.
Toggle Commented Mar 29, 2013 on Melting of the Arctic sea ice at Arctic Sea Ice
If you think about PIOMAS, if the ice cracks and spreads by say 1%, initially you have the same SIA, but once the ice in the cracks freezes the SIA will increase by 1%. As regards volume as the cracks freeze the volume must also increase, but the growth rate will be faster because the build up of surface ice will be faster than growth under the existing ice for thermodynamic reasons. Phil.
Toggle Commented Mar 18, 2013 on Crack is bad for you (and sea ice) at Arctic Sea Ice
Based on the Barrow site it's ~1ºC/0.1m of ice, so the fresh cracks should be about 0.7m thinner, assuming no snow. Thermal conductivity of ice is ~2.3W/m K so I make that ~23W/m^2 conducted through the ice. Phil.
Toggle Commented Mar 14, 2013 on PIOMAS March 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
A-Team, Wow, this is a great and very detailed image! If I am reading it right, it seems many of the "fresh" cracks have a temperature of -22.5C, while neighboring ice is 7-9 degrees colder. I was wondering with the ice temperatures displaying like this, if it would be possible to calculate how much heat convection/freezing is going on in those cracks, or if it would be necessary to have air temperatures to assess the heat release? If you know the conductivity of ice it should be possible to calculate the difference in thickness for example as well as the heat loss. Phil.
Toggle Commented Mar 14, 2013 on PIOMAS March 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
I am far from a global warming denier. You can look at my other posts. I believe in following the facts though. Nobody on this forum predicted we would have record volume gain this winter. This is an unexpected fact. Hardly unexpected, it was virtually inevitable following a record minimum! Failure to do so would have severe implications for this summer. Phil.
Toggle Commented Mar 12, 2013 on The cracks of dawn at Arctic Sea Ice
Wet ther that looks like a beautiful example of a Von Karmann vortex street, well spotted! Phil.
Toggle Commented Mar 7, 2013 on The cracks of dawn at Arctic Sea Ice
SATire, your blind faith in the market economy to achieve the optimum solution is touching but unrealistic. I find the idea that the German population is divided between those who only drive their cars in cities and those who only drive on the autobahns surprising.
Toggle Commented Feb 23, 2013 on Open Thread February 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
SATire, read what I said, a diesel hybrid, I did not mention an SUV. From your description of driving in Germany such a hybrid would be perfect
Toggle Commented Feb 23, 2013 on Open Thread February 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice