This is www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000035525134's Typepad Profile.
Join Typepad and start following www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000035525134's activity
www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000035525134
Recent Activity
"Yes, these models can be improved. And it is not even unclear where they need to improve. "
well, you its hard to get Ice right as long as
absolute temperatures are off..
Here is the spread in models, not in ANOMALY, but in absolute temperatures.
http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/files/2015/12/hawkins_sutton_bams_fig1.jpg
this is for GCMs..
2016 Mega-Dipole
As reported in the last ASI update, the forecast Dipole has now set up. Yesterday's last analysis chart provided by Environment Canada, at 18Z, showed the high pressure moving in via the Bering Strait at 1037 hPa, while a rapidly weakening storm that had moved in from Siberia (lowest central pre...
" I always explain the range of possibilities, even if they seem far-fetched at that moment."
de lurking..
That captures EXACTLY why I read you every day. It's what I expect from a good analyst and you never fail to deliver..
re lurking
2016 Mega-Dipole
As reported in the last ASI update, the forecast Dipole has now set up. Yesterday's last analysis chart provided by Environment Canada, at 18Z, showed the high pressure moving in via the Bering Strait at 1037 hPa, while a rapidly weakening storm that had moved in from Siberia (lowest central pre...
This blog is a treasure. I read it several times a day and forget to thank you. So, let me remedy that.
Thank you.
2016 Arctic cyclone, update 1
As announced in ASI 2016 update 5 a very large cyclone is raging in the Arctic, as we speak. According to Environment Canada the storm's current central pressure is 970 hPa, but it was 968 hPa 12 hours ago, which is probably the lowest it will go. I've combined the weather map with yesterday's U...
"Apologies to Mr Mosher, but that's why I had the caveat about "teaching you suck eggs"
haha, no apologies required.
@Jim Hunt, thanks for the link. I lurk at neven's place. So much to learn I just keep my mouth shut.
I was kinda surprised that folks haven't "taken" to the approach of using SST under the ice.
Anyway, this whole DMI escapade just makes me angry. Months back a commenter on Lucia's Rank Exploits pointed me to the chart and demanded an explanation ( as if it were my data). It was pretty clear that the chart was broken, but I didn't even think to give any one a head's up. That won't happen again.
Grasping at uncorrected straws
I rather not give too much attention to fake skeptics, or climate risk deniers as I like to call them, but lately they are somehow finding it in themselves to come up with stuff that they think disproves Arctic sea ice loss. I've already posted about MASIE annual average nonsense (about which t...
"I read some buoy data and it seems that sea water temperatures are rock solid steady during the dark season... But I have not seen all of the data."
When we were doing our global product one of the things I puzzled over was this.
Global products are a combination of SST and SAT.
But then there is ICE? What to do?
A) estimate SAT over ice ( treat the ice like "land"
B) Estimate the SST under ice.. Treat the ice like frozen water.
In the end we did things both ways, but in estimating the SST under ice we just used a constant ( so the effect on the global trend is slightly downward )
In any case, if I got a pointer to some data to look at I would appreciate it...
Not that any differences will have a "impact" on the science. This is just one of those details..
Grasping at uncorrected straws
I rather not give too much attention to fake skeptics, or climate risk deniers as I like to call them, but lately they are somehow finding it in themselves to come up with stuff that they think disproves Arctic sea ice loss. I've already posted about MASIE annual average nonsense (about which t...
"I suspect he's cranky cuz his life's work - his surface station heatsink theory- is going nowhere fast. Hausfather et al's comparison of USHCN (ClimDiv) to USCRN pretty much shot his whole AGU 2015 poster/paper out of the water before it ever saw print."
yup..
Grasping at uncorrected straws
I rather not give too much attention to fake skeptics, or climate risk deniers as I like to call them, but lately they are somehow finding it in themselves to come up with stuff that they think disproves Arctic sea ice loss. I've already posted about MASIE annual average nonsense (about which t...
"Second, from the model-driven viewpoint there's the unsurprising problem of models not exactly matching the (surface) temp data. That's because theres natural variation. "
The dont match in a variety of ways for a variety of reasons. Here is how they do not match.
1. They get absolute temperatures wrong with a spread of 3K. This means they will get any type of temperature driven process (like melting ice ) wrong.
2. They get the land ocean contrast wrong
3. They get arctic and antarctic amplification wrong.
4. They get the response to volcanos wrong and the rebound wrong.
5. We know that higher sensitivity models are ruled out by observational constraints.
6. They get the tropospheric warming wrong.
Some of these, as you should be able to tell, are utterly unrelated to getting natural variation correct.
At best the models let us know that there is trouble ahead. But we knew that already from simple energy balance considerations. The problem is that people rely on them as some sort of argument closer. They are not.
Freezing season 2013/2014 open thread 1
Here's a first open thread for this freezing season, which will be followed by monthly instalments. I apologize yet again for having been so inactive on the blog. I'm the kind of person who shuts off certain activities when being too busy with momentarily higher-priority stuff, but with the exte...
Actually the Curry paper has some interesting data sources ( Russian ) that I havent come across before..
and an interesting testable prognostication.
"We found that the stadium-wave signal propagates through four different stages of
climate regime evolution. Each stage reflects a particular behavior or a particular set of sub-
process interactions. And at each stage, activity is heightened in a particular geographic region.
600 At all stages, seeds of regime reversal are embedded within the collection of sub-processes
regulating the Arctic freshwater balance, thereby subtly and incrementally imposing ‘curbs’ on
the prevailing trend of sea ice coverage, assuring an inevitable regime reversal years in the
future. These negative feedbacks modify the Arctic freshwater balance through: i) sea ice related
shifts in the Arctic Front and associated zones of precipitation and continental runoff; ii) ice-
605 cover associated sea-level-pressure changes that reorganize winds and thereby direction of
freshwater and sea ice export between the Arctic Basin and marginal seas; iii) modified influx of
warm, saline water into the marginal seas, particularly in the Atlantic sector; iv) and Pacific
atmospheric circulation anomalies negatively feeding back onto the Atlantic freshwater balance
609 through remote modification of precipitation regimes."
Freezing season 2013/2014 open thread 1
Here's a first open thread for this freezing season, which will be followed by monthly instalments. I apologize yet again for having been so inactive on the blog. I'm the kind of person who shuts off certain activities when being too busy with momentarily higher-priority stuff, but with the exte...
Eli makes a good point.
Jeff Id tried to make a similar point by looking at the ice loss above 72N ( as I recall) That is,every year all the ice below 72N always melts out, so he looked at melt above 72N. kinda interesting it cause a brief kerfuffle but its interesting to look at
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2012/04/03/sea-ice-code/#more-13512
ASI 2012 update 3: international daily data day
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) and Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2011 period (NSIDC has...
neven & crandles,
are you guys going to enter the "sweep stakes" this year with a estimate of the minimum?
ASI 2012 update 3: international daily data day
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) and Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2011 period (NSIDC has...
www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000035525134 is now following The Typepad Team
Nov 16, 2010
Subscribe to www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000035525134’s Recent Activity