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Not even sure the NWP will open at all if McClure Strait doesn't get unblocked at the western end somehow, currently choked with heavy multiyear ice...
I'll say 13.5 M km^2 by the "eyeball" method.
Toggle Commented Feb 4, 2012 on 2012 Maximum Area Pool at Arctic Sea Ice
You forgot to make green in your spreadsheet September 1 and 7-9 in the year 2006 with their positive values
Toggle Commented Sep 12, 2011 on First uptick IJIS at Arctic Sea Ice
It would be interesting, let's say, if you assumed average ice displacements over the winter, to make a map showing how little multi-year ice we will have next spring
Toggle Commented Sep 11, 2011 on 2011: Arctic oddities at Arctic Sea Ice
Looks like spring of 2012 is going to start out with a S**T-TON of first year ice...will be interesting next year for sure...
PIOMAS is now at a record low absolute volume (Big surprise....)
Also, the ice albedo effect is grossly exaggerated in most popular discussions - after all, the seasonal timing of snowpack establishment and retreat in the N Hemisphere landmasses also seems quite stable (and snow has more albedo than ice with melt ponds). This is in large part because ice and snow have lower albedos in the infrared. Since 50% of the energy content of solar radiation is infrared at wavelengths > 710 nm , thinking only in terms of visisble-light albedo is at best misleading and at worst a delusion!
Toggle Commented Aug 19, 2011 on Polar ice caps can recover at Arctic Sea Ice
OF COURSE there will be ice in the winter. After all, in our present climate even the Great Lakes (U.S.), Gulf of Bothnia(NW Europe) and northern Caspian Sea (Middle East/Asia Minor) are NOT "ice free" in the winter, despite having MUCH, MUCH milder and shorter winters than the Arctic. If we get 1000 ppm, my intuition is the Arctic Ocean will be the way Hudson Bay is now - ice-free for a few months and up to 1m ice thickness in late winter/early spring...
Toggle Commented Aug 19, 2011 on Polar ice caps can recover at Arctic Sea Ice
PIOMAS has just released an updated version of their "seasonal outlook" showing this year ending up just a hair above 2007, but ending on June 30, and assuming "average" conditions from July 1 onward. If the next week or two is sunny over almost the entire Arctic Ocean, and we get the right wind patterns later on (e.g. in late July or in August), I guess we might beat 2007, but in any case I think it will be a close call.
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Jul 9, 2011