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Elizabeth Ashcroft

Glasgow

Emeritus Professor in Economics and previous Editor of Economic Commentary, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde

Interests: Scottish economy, devolution, economic forecasting, regional economics and policy, Scottish media, macro-economic policy, public finance, acoustic guitar playing, Newcastle United

Recent Activity

Stars Fell on Stockton

Many apologies to my readers for not posting anything for the last two years! The result of the BREXIT referendum and my retiral from the Fraser of Allander Institute led me to retreat from economics and the Scottish economy. But I haven't been idle. I decide to work on and... Continue reading

Posted Aug 17, 2018 at Scottish Economy Watch

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Brexit and the Scottish Economy: don't panic but do worry!

In this blog I shall set out some notes on the nature and direction of the impact of Brexit on the Scottish economy. The Fraser of Allander Institute will be revising its forecasts of Scottish GDP growth, job creation and unemployment in the coming weeks in the light of Brexit... Continue reading

Posted Jun 27, 2016 at Scottish Economy Watch

2

Brexit: Bad for Europe, disastrous for Britain

My contribution to today's New York Times debate is here. Continue reading

Posted Jun 20, 2016 at Scottish Economy Watch

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Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary - June 2016

A belated post summarising our latest Economic Commentary. I Overview In the latest Economic Commentary we note that Scotland’s economy has recently flirted with recession with growth of 0.2% in 2015q4 – the latest data point – and -0.1% in 2015q3. Scotland may yet fail to escape recession in the... Continue reading

Posted Jun 20, 2016 at Scottish Economy Watch

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FAI Economic Commentary March 2016

Unfortunately, a bout of sickness has delayed me posting a summary of the latest FAI Economic Commentary. Here it is, and apologies for the delay: I Overview In our latest Economic Commentary we note that Growth in both the Scottish and UK economies is set to slow further with falling... Continue reading

Posted Mar 9, 2016 at Scottish Economy Watch

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Punching above our weight

On Wednesday of this week - 9 December- the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published its annual update of Gross Value Added (GVA) and GVA per head for the Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics (NUTS) 1, 2 and 3 regions and nations of the UK. This is a useful... Continue reading

Posted Dec 11, 2015 at Scottish Economy Watch

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No End to Austerity

Several UK newspapers today trumpet the Chancellor's Autumn Statement yesterday as heralding the end of austerity. Nothing could be further from the truth. Chart 4.10 in the Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR) Economic and Fiscal Outlook shows the size of the state in Britain continuing to shrink dramatically. From around... Continue reading

Posted Nov 26, 2015 at Scottish Economy Watch

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Scottish Labour Market in July-September 2015

The latest labour market data show the situation up to end September. The data clearly show the slowdown that has recently occurred in the Scottish economy. Some comfort can be perhaps be obtained from the latest quarter's data, which could be interpreted as showing that the slowdown is coming to... Continue reading

Posted Nov 13, 2015 at Scottish Economy Watch

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Business rates and the Scottish economy

Magnus Gardham writes in the Herald on Tuesday 10 November that 'Some of Britain's biggest retailers have warned stores could be forced to shed jobs in Scotland unless business rates are overhauled. Boots, Marks & Spencer and John Lewis are among 40 firms and business organisations that have called for... Continue reading

Posted Nov 12, 2015 at Scottish Economy Watch

1

Never say never?

I see the well-known economist and FT columnist John Kay has suggested that the financial services sector in Scotland will never recover from the failure of its two largest banks at the height of the banking crisis in 2008. Specifically, John Kay is reported as saying that “We’re never going... Continue reading

Posted Nov 9, 2015 at Scottish Economy Watch

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Podcast - Fraser Commentary - November 2015

For those who can stand it the latest podcast for the Commentary is here (click on picture): Continue reading

Posted Nov 6, 2015 at Scottish Economy Watch

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Fraser Economic Commentary - November 2015

I Overview In the latest Economic Commentary we note that Growth in both the Scottish and UK economies is slowing and in the second quarter a gap opened up between Scotland and the UK. The chained volume measure of GDP rose by 0.1% in Scotland in the quarter, while UK... Continue reading

Posted Nov 6, 2015 at Scottish Economy Watch

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Fraser Economic Commentary - June 2015

I Overview In the latest Economic Commentary we note that the Scottish and UK economies are continuing to grow and recover from the Great Recession. With growth of 0.6% in the final quarter of last year – the latest data point - the Scottish economy has now enjoyed positive growth... Continue reading

Posted Jun 30, 2015 at Scottish Economy Watch

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Government economists and the Scottish Government

More on the Scotland on Sunday news story and my article, which is also included in my last post. My paper criticises recent work by Scottish Government economists in the Office of the Chief Economic Adviser (OCEA), which purports to show that increased productivity, investment and exports will raise the... Continue reading

Posted Mar 15, 2015 at Scottish Economy Watch

3

Home rule fiscal autonomy ‘doesn’t add up’

The news story in Scotland on Sunday about my article is here. The article itself does not appear to be on the Scotland on Sunday website yet, so here it is: On March 9th the Scottish Government published a news release "Greater gains from more fiscal control" The release claimed... Continue reading

Posted Mar 15, 2015 at Scottish Economy Watch

3

What GERS 2013-14 tells us

The latest Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) published today with data for 2013-14 is hardly a revelation. Scotland is shown to have a net fiscal deficit of -8.1% of GDP - when a geographical share of oil revenues is assigned to Scotland - while the UK deficit is -5.6%.... Continue reading

Posted Mar 11, 2015 at Scottish Economy Watch

3

Why we should be concerned about further planned austerity

In the latest Fraser Economic Commentary we discuss the threat to the Scottish and UK economies of the UK Coalition's current plans to increase the pace and scale of austerity over the next 4 years. The Institute for Fiscal Studies in their IFS Green Budget 2015 highlight the scale of... Continue reading

Posted Mar 4, 2015 at Scottish Economy Watch

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Why the fall in the price of oil could benefit the Scottish economy.

The underlying basis for the estimate in Fraser of Allander Institute's latest Economic Commentary that the fall in the price of oil could raise Scottish GDP growth is given in the box below: Continue reading

Posted Mar 4, 2015 at Scottish Economy Watch

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Fraser Economic Commentary - March 2015

Our latest Economic Commentary, which was published today can be accessed here. A summary of our findings and forecasts is provide below: Overview The Scottish and UK economies are now recovering at a reasonable rate from the greatest economic shock since the 1930s. This recovery, slowed by the UK Coalition... Continue reading

Posted Mar 4, 2015 at Scottish Economy Watch

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Are the new jobs as good as the old?

The latest labour market data for Scotland, which were the subject of yesterday's post allow us to examine the type of jobs that are on offer, or are being taken up, in current conditions. The chart below shows where we are. In general terms, what we see is a shift... Continue reading

Posted Feb 20, 2015 at Scottish Economy Watch

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Jobs and unemployment in Scotland and the UK

Following the release yesterday (18 February) of the latest labour market statistics the Deputy First Minister and Cabinet Secretary for Finance, John Swinney, is reported as claiming that: "Scotland is outperforming the UK on all three headline labour market indicators with employment continuing to increase and unemployment down …." While... Continue reading

Posted Feb 19, 2015 at Scottish Economy Watch

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The Falling Price of Oil

The recent significant fall in world oil prices raises several issues and questions. One crucial issue is whether the low price will be sustained. If not, through, for example Saudia Arabia cutting back on production, then any effect on economic activity will be short lived. But it is now clear... Continue reading

Posted Dec 22, 2014 at Scottish Economy Watch

2

Scotland’s Recovery in the Short and Long Run

On November 12th, we published our latest Fraser of Allander Institute Economic Commentary, - sponsored by PWC. On the same day, the Scottish Government published its quarterly accounts for the second quarter under the Scottish National Accounts Project (SNAP). The Commentary, therefore, could only analyse the drivers of Scotland's economic... Continue reading

Posted Nov 27, 2014 at Scottish Economy Watch

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Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary – 12 November 2014

Overview • In the latest Economic Commentary we note that in the first half of the year the Scottish economy delivered strong economic growth, increased job creation and falling unemployment. • However, there are signs that growth may be beginning to slow. Growth in the wider global economy and the... Continue reading

Posted Nov 13, 2014 at Scottish Economy Watch

2

Scottish Jobs and the World Economy

In an earlier post I sought to establish the number of jobs that could be said to depend on economic links with the rest of the UK (rUK). That work suggested that almost 1 million jobs – 962,000 – were linked to the UK through rUK owned firms operating establishments... Continue reading

Posted Aug 25, 2014 at Scottish Economy Watch

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