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Better Trader
Recent Activity
Potential pattern on the DAX
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I thought yesterday’s high was the top, this is no longer the case, today the rally extended. This wave is wave (v), it is long and it is nearing an end. But I am not sure how to label the third wave inside wave (v). May be it was yesterday’s... Continue reading
Posted 2 days ago at Better Trader
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The stock market and the economy are driven by sentiment
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Last week we closed our short on FTSE 100. The index rallied again and we went short again, we closed the trade today and took 187 pts profit. I closed the trade because I am not sure what the S&P 500 will do next. Not all the indicators are in... Continue reading
Posted May 17, 2020 at Better Trader
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US retail sales plunge at record pace
Retail sales in the US sank 16.4 percent from a month earlier in April of 2020, worse than forecasts of a 12 percent drop. It is the sharpest decrease in retail sales ever due to the coronavirus pandemic which forced Americans to stay at home and many businesses to close.... Continue reading
Posted May 15, 2020 at Better Trader
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10Y yield consolidating before a major breakout
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The 10Y yield is trading sideways, I think the rally in March was wave (iv). Yields should decline to complete wave (v). But we have seen in March that when the Fed launches these huge stimulus programs investors fear that bonds are not safe and yields can surge, and when... Continue reading
Posted May 13, 2020 at Better Trader
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Worst jobs report in history
The US economy lost 20.5 million jobs in April, less than market expectations of a 22 million cut, and after declining by 870K in March. It is the largest drop ever, bringing the employment to 131 million, its lowest level since February 2011, due to the coronavirus pandemic and consequent... Continue reading
Posted May 8, 2020 at Better Trader
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Number of Americans filling for unemployment benefits rises again
The number of Americans filling for unemployment benefits was 3.169 in the week ended May 2nd, compared to a revised 3.846 million in the prior week and market expectations of 3.0 million. source: tradingeconomics.com Continue reading
Posted May 7, 2020 at Better Trader
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Bear markets follow a natural path
I have been spot on on the FTSE 100 this year. The reason it is working well on the FTSE 100 is because we are in a bear market and bear markets follow a natural path. They closely follow an Elliott wave cycle, so easier to predict than a manipulated... Continue reading
Posted May 6, 2020 at Better Trader
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US 10Y Yield update
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US 10Y yield is consolidating like a descending triangle, this implies a bearish breakout is imminent. There is no fear of a dollar collapse, so no fear bonds will collapse, therefore high probability the 10Y yield will fall. Plus the economy will contract further, a debt deflation is underway, the... Continue reading
Posted May 5, 2020 at Better Trader
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US jobless claims: over 30 million unemployed
The number of Americans filling for unemployment benefits was 3.839 million in the week ended April 25th, compared to 4.442 million in the prior week and market expectations of 3.5 million. This brought the total reported since the beginning of the coronavirus crisis to over 30 million, suggesting layoffs have... Continue reading
Posted Apr 30, 2020 at Better Trader
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Big drop in US GDP in the first quarter
The US economy shrank by an annualized 4.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020, ending the longest period of expansion in the country's history, an advance estimate showed. It was the steepest pace of contraction in GDP since the last quarter of 2008, much worse than market consensus of... Continue reading
Posted Apr 30, 2020 at Better Trader
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Potential pattern on gold
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Posted Apr 29, 2020 at Better Trader
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Charts and the fundamentals
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I find that when I combine Elliott wave analysis and fundamental analysis (the economy/earnings) my forecasts are more accurate. Understanding the economy is important, not only for buy and hold investors but also for short term traders, because it helps to confirm the Elliott wave pattern. Sometimes a move can... Continue reading
Posted Apr 24, 2020 at Better Trader
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US jobless claims above 4 million
The number of Americans filling for unemployment benefits was 4.427 million last week, bringing the total reported over the past five weeks to over 26 million, equivalent to 16% of the labor force. This means that the 22 million jobs created during the employment boom which started in September 2010... Continue reading
Posted Apr 24, 2020 at Better Trader
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US manufacturing PMI falls sharply
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The IHS Markit US Manufacturing PMI fell to 36.9 in April of 2020 from 48.5 in March, below market expectations of 38. The reading pointed to the sharpest contraction in factory activity in 11 years amid the cancellation or postponement of both domestic and foreign orders following the coronavirus pandemic... Continue reading
Posted Apr 24, 2020 at Better Trader
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Another big rise in US jobless claims
The number of Americans filling for unemployment benefits was 5.245 million in the week ended April 11th, down from the previous week's 6.615 million and compared to market expectations of 5.105 million. The latest figure brought the total reported over the past month to 22 million. source: tradingeconomics.com Continue reading
Posted Apr 16, 2020 at Better Trader
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Counter trend rally in the dollar
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Today's rally in the dollar is an impulse wave, it must be the first leg of the counter trend move, this leg is wave a. The counter rend is in three wave [a,b,c], therefore the dollar will pullback to complete wave b, this will boost EUR/USD and S&P. After the... Continue reading
Posted Apr 15, 2020 at Better Trader
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Sharp fall in US retail sales
Retail sales in the US plunged 8.7% month-over-month in March of 2020, following a downwardly revised 0.4% drop in February and worse than market forecasts of a 8% drop. It is the biggest decline on record, in a sign that the coronavirus impact on the economy may be harder than... Continue reading
Posted Apr 15, 2020 at Better Trader
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Massive profits in the last two months
Now that markets are no longer manipulated we are accumulating large profits on our trades +933 pts in the last two months on the FTSE 100. Today I have a message for both ex-members and those who have never subscribed to my service. If you are a trend follower it... Continue reading
Posted Apr 7, 2020 at Better Trader
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In the end Elliott wave analysis wins
In the past when I said that the stock market would crash, I was referring to the Elliott wave pattern. If you study this pattern you will know that a major correction is due. I don't know with certainty that the current correction is the start of the crash, we... Continue reading
Posted Mar 11, 2020 at Better Trader
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China Services PMI collapses
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The Caixin China General Services PMI plunged to a record low of 26.5 in February 2020 from 51.8 in the prior month, amid company closures and travel restrictions due to the damaging effect of the coronavirus on the economy. Continue reading
Posted Mar 4, 2020 at Better Trader
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US manufacturing PMI near contraction
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The IHS Markit US Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.8 in February of 2020 from 51.5 in January, below market expectations of 51.5, preliminary estimates showed. The reading pointed to the slowest expansion in factory activity since August as output growth was the softest since last July, with firms stating that... Continue reading
Posted Feb 21, 2020 at Better Trader
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US industrial production in decline
Industrial production in the US fell 0.8 percent year-on-year in January of 2020, following a downwardly revised 0.9 percent decline in the previous month. It is the fifth consecutive annual decrease in industrial output. source: tradingeconomics.com Continue reading
Posted Feb 14, 2020 at Better Trader
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US bond yields are sliding
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I thought the 10Y yield would fall, not only because the pattern is bearish, but the spread of the coronavirus will cut global growth. People are too complacent about the coronavirus, when the economic data is released in the next few weeks expect some downgrades. The Elliott wave pattern is... Continue reading
Posted Feb 7, 2020 at Better Trader
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The US economy grew by 2.1%
The US economy grew by an annualized 2.1% in Q4, the same as in the previous period and market forecasts of 2.1%, advance estimates showed. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), federal government spending, state and local government spending,... Continue reading
Posted Jan 30, 2020 at Better Trader
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Gold may pause before moving higher
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The sharp fall in yields recently coincided with a rally in gold. The slide in yields in not yet over, the sequence should be in five waves [i,ii,iii,iv,v] before we see a rebound. This five-wave sequence is wave (iii). there is more downside in the 10Y yield which means more... Continue reading
Posted Jan 28, 2020 at Better Trader
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