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Stuck in a rut
Interests: Very eclectic
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There is one topic that is missed entirely related to permafrost and carbon release and that is wildfires in the Arctic. These create weather systems, darken ice, pump tons of carbon into the air, and farther degrades the permafrost and releasing carbon much much faster then normal release would take. I do not believe there are very many models that deal with the release of that carbon that take wildfires into consideration.
Toggle Commented Jun 2, 2016 on Crisis in the Cryosphere at Arctic Sea Ice
"New cause of exceptional Greenland melt revealed As Robert Fausto of the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, lead author of the study, says, "When we were analysing our weather station data, we were quite surprised, that the exceptional melt rates we observed were primarily caused by warm and moist air, because ice sheet wide melt is usually dominated by radiant energy from sunlight. " Posted by: Colorado Bob | April 02, 2016 at 22:27" Not sure why the big surprise. Granted in the era of stable weather systems almost all the melt did come from sunlight as the systems in play moved mainly west to est with little northern movement until they hit Europe. In the past few years all that has changed. You now are getting continuous major systems running up the east coast of NA and onto Greenland with lots of heat and moisture. This was predicted to happen decades ago. The surprise may be how soon it is starting to happen. As with all things pertaining to the Arctic, it is now becoming a case of it being more a surprise we do not see a shocking result then a shocking result.
Toggle Commented Apr 4, 2016 on Winter analysis addendum at Arctic Sea Ice
@ John C: Can not remember when or where Neven pointed out a problem developing with that graph and just did a quick edit of his own. As what has happened in the past with many other graphs, the originators and/or others that use those graphs just carry on with whatever the blog or forum has done until someone else comes along and resets the scale. Ganted it would be nice if the original authors fixed things right, but it does show what kind of influence the blog and forum have in the world the Arctic studies. Congrats on influence :)
Toggle Commented Apr 2, 2016 on Winter analysis addendum at Arctic Sea Ice
@Jim Hunt: exchange Waves for Breakers Barrow Battered By Big Breakers (try saying that 3 times fast).
Toggle Commented Aug 28, 2015 on Arm's race (and a storm) at Arctic Sea Ice
For all who may have trouble with typepad. A while ago I had problems related to typecast not liking my email address. Got one from and since then have not had trouble. It does seem typepad does have issues with email addresses. Could be a case the way they talk to each other to confirm addresses are real. Finding other online accounts could solve your issues. As for Wadhad. He does have a reputation of putting himself into tight corners which journalists love. He should also have a blacklist of any paper he should not talk to. DM would be at the top of my list along with any paper Murdoch is associated with as assassination journalism is their hallmark. BTW all the attention DM article is getting is exactly what they are looking for and will continue doing it as long as they get the attention they are after. In regards to the topic on hand, depending on how much heat has thinned out volume and how the ice that is left withstands what is becoming traditional Aug weather (very stormy), the 'thick' ice could start acting like FYI and under those conditions disintegrate into small enough pieces that very little heat is needed to make them disappear. How much is left in the end will depend on two factors. 1) Is the thick ice thick enough to withstand stormy weather, and will Aug bring enough stormy weather to impact what ice is around sufficiently to greatly influence the final extent/area numbers. IMO I believe a) Aug will not have one big storm but a series of mid to small one that when you total the effect will be the same as one Big storm. Also I believe there is enough heat in the Arctic and around the Arctic that will get pulled into the Arctic, that the melt season could continue on into Oct. Unthinkable? Who in 2014 would have bet that max could have come as early as it did in 2015?
Although very against the drilling the is a very political issue at stake that has not been discussed that much and that is establishing Arctic sovereignty. You have both the russians and the Chinese making big moves to establish control over the Arctic and therefore Canada and the USA must make counter moves otherwise China and Russia will dictate what happens in the Arctic and that will be very bad news all around. Again do not agree with the move but can understand the political chess match moves as I believe is the real issue at stake.
Toggle Commented May 17, 2015 on Bill McKibben nails it at Arctic Sea Ice
I saw a very good illustration of a tipping point. You are going down river ahead of you is a raging falls. You know it is there, but you can not see it. You have 3 choices 1) depending on your exact definitions of possible events, get out of the river (this one is arguable as a possibility as time events may not allow it. 2) turn around and go back up stream. 3) continue down stream. The tipping point is not when you go over the falls, the tipping point is the spot when the force of the river prevents you from making to shore on time, is too powerful to go back up stream, and therefore the inevitable will happen in that you will go over the falls. As you do not know where the edge of the falls is where that tipping point is, is unknown. The only time you know you have reached the tipping point is when you go over the falls despite your best too late efforts to make choice numbers 1 and/or 2.
Neven: I do understand your position on weather, but because of the blocking patterns, the resultings troughs and ridges, are we not starting to get season long weather patterns that in effect determine the outcome of the melt from the beginning of the melt/freezing season from the start? Granted if you just look at a day to day look there is still great variability, but over all are we not starting to see predominate patterns over the season? You mentioned summers of 2013 and 2014 as a case, but there is also the case of last winter where the ridge and trough basically stood in one spot over North America for almost 3 months and that pattern sent storm after storm deep into the Arctic Ocean for most of that time greatly affecting the ability for that area to freeze at all. I guess what I am trying to say is that have we come to a point where once a particular weather pattern is being established we can almost predict what the melt season will end up as, just because weather patterns themselves are becoming so long lasting? "Is anyone else impatient to see what the rest of this decade will bring?" Of two minds on that. Like how you get fixated on watching a train wreck when it is occurring, and then the great sadness of what great loss we have witnessed. On top of that when and where the next collapse will happen.
Toggle Commented Apr 29, 2015 on EGU2015, my impressions at Arctic Sea Ice
Sam: Could it possibly have been compacted ice mounding up that did not freeze in a solid mass and is now breaking apart? Or is it a possibility of rotten ice that was thick and now weather action is acting on it?
Toggle Commented Apr 24, 2015 on CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness maps at Arctic Sea Ice
D_C_S: Sorry about putting words in your mouth, but I was just drawing what I thought inevitable conclusions over a period of centuries. Is it extreme to think that over 400 years the avg global temps will rise by over 10C? Is it extreme to them conclude that the supply of clean fresh water which is in dangerously short supply in most of the world will be greatly reduced because of that heat and the demands humans will place on it as humans need more water the hotter it gets? Is it extreme to think that in 400 years the sea level will rise by over 10 feet? If all of these questions get answered with a no it is not extreme then then impact on human life will be very extreme and this is the reasoning. Lack of water will mean lack of food as food requires water to be produced. Lack of food and water always results in mass migrations. Mas migrations always result in stresses in places to live. All these factors usually result in violence of one sort or another which usually results in more disruption in food, water and habitation supplies. On top of that disease will also become a very deadly force. Up to now in human history these events have occurred on a local or regional level and have been contained within that area. We must remember that these disruptions when large enough also include loss of large amounts of local knowledge such as what happened at the fall of the Roman Empire when it was known to a very high degree the polar and equatorial circumference distances of the earth. In the next 400 years though this will affect the entire globe. The question then becomes how many will die from these disruptions? Not only that will the violence be just the efforts of containing or moving on the migrations or will they spill over into efforts of disrupting those that have enough for themselves to ensure that they no longer have anything either? History is replete of examples of all these things occurring and to believe that somehow in the next 400 years with all the disruption that will happen we will avoid a repeat of history I believe is pure fantasy. The only way I can see of avoiding all this is to get CO2 back to 300ppm within the 100 - 200 years.And get year round ice covering a minimum of 75% back on the Arctic Ocean.
Toggle Commented Apr 23, 2015 on CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness maps at Arctic Sea Ice
"With Cryosat, we're now able to provide users of the Arctic with information on sea-ice thickness in rapid fashion, which will be a step change from what has gone before." I will give him that it is a major step up from all previous attempts, but Arctic ice is a very complicated creature an thickness alone does not even begin to tell you what you need to know about working and travelling in the Arctic. You can travel at almost max speed in in that is metres thick over long distances because it is so rotten the get sunk by a small (by surface area) by a berg the Cryosat can not show because it is very hard ice. Saw a doc following a very experienced Inuit hunter. There was an area he walked on the he prodded the ice ahead of him with his long spear before he took his next step. On the surface it looked all the same, Cryosat would have treated it all the same. His spear told him where to go and where to avoid. Tech is great, but do not exaggerate what it is capable of otherwise you can kill people in the Arctic. And for the rest of us I think it still will not tell us the full picture and the Arctic will continue to spring many more surprises.
Toggle Commented Apr 20, 2015 on CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness maps at Arctic Sea Ice
Cincinnatus- In one of the following links, Dr. Suzuki was asked about the future of the earth. His answer is the earth will be fine like any other time big changes in earth's past has happened. The problem is - WE WILL NOT BE AROUND. We will all be wiped out by the changes that are coming our way unless we get our act together. I think you somehow believe we will survive all this. Most of us believe there is actually no way we can, or if we do a very very small number. I am of the latter camp. In fact, I tend to believe that we have a very small window of time to get it right then nature will ensure that we will be one of the extinct species when the new era gets established.
Toggle Commented Apr 20, 2015 on CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness maps at Arctic Sea Ice
Not to say if I agree with it or not, but do remember in the US a group boarded a ship and dumped its cargo (which included tea) into Boston Harbor protesting the tea tax. And a horrifying (to me anyway) possibility and justification of environmental damage comes from this article I saw. "Oil is known to have a calming effect on seas. “Aran islanders used to take a can of oil out rowing with them in case they got caught in heavy conditions,” said Dr Ward."
Toggle Commented Apr 7, 2015 on PIOMAS April 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Then of course between the US and Europe you can have either 10,000 or 10.000. In Canada where it can not decide if it is Us following or European you have both. Reason, Quebec follows French numbering system. Scary thing about PW is that his predictions are based upon what he himself has seen in the Arctic rather then basing it on what satellites see. He has been one of the very few that has seen the ice both from on top and from underneath. Not only one or two times but many times. There is one point though, if you had the perfect melt season, with high temps little cloud and strong wind blow out the Fram, how long would the ice that is there last? Basing on the examples of the last two seasons, likelihood is very low, but were they the norm or were they outliers of new weather?
Toggle Commented Apr 6, 2015 on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
You can find everything if you aim towards the 2nd star to the right and fly till dawn. To the topic at hand, the max is all in, the question now becomes, how much wind and in what direction, cloud, and how much undermelt will we get this year, thereby giving us an idea how much ice is left at the end of the melt season. The other part of the equation which is becoming even more important is how much melting will happen on the Greenland ice sheet and how much more destabilization will occur.
Toggle Commented Apr 2, 2015 on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
@ARogers: Barentz had about a month there where there were between 2-3 cyclones hitting almost every single day. All of them following the Gulf Stream which means a fair amount of heat involved. Remember somes Arctic weather scientist reporting from a ship in that area stating she had never known of such a great number of large storms hitting as often and for such a long time.
Toggle Commented Mar 30, 2015 on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks JG. Do realize that when it comes to weather Nfld has a great variety. That is why I was getting a little confused as to the real story.
Toggle Commented Mar 26, 2015 on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
DR: Science does not evolve based on what has already occurred. It evolves by presenting "speculation" based on reasoning, then if it comes out correct many times then that reasoning has proven validation. If proven wrong then you change your reasoning. If all you are concerned about is people laughing at you because you got something wrong, science is not the area you should get involved with.
Toggle Commented Mar 26, 2015 on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
@Ostepop How do you define speculation. To someone with little to no knowledge calling today may still be speculation. To someone whose lifelong study has been this subject it is a slam dunk. Example: You hear a funny noise in your car, you and your friend both of whom have little knowledge about cars can take a guess at the problem. That is speculation. A competent mechanic on hearing that noise can usually tell you exactly what the problem is. Why? Expertise. Give these people at NSIDC the credit they do deserve. They did not get their degrees out of a cereal box. In fact I suspect they knew the max was in the bag at least a couple of weeks ago. They just wanted to be 99.9% certain of it before they called it. In the science field that is as certain as you can get about anything, and notice they still gave themselves a back door..
Toggle Commented Mar 26, 2015 on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
Should have looked more. Nfld also is generally buried. Officials are hoping for warm days and cold nights until snow is gone, otherwise Atlantic Canada Provinces could all have a disastrous spring with floods.
Toggle Commented Mar 24, 2015 on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
Nfld hasn't had as much snow, but many storms packing winds in some locations over 100kph. Indicative of the stormy weather hitting the edges of the ice pack in the last many weeks.
Toggle Commented Mar 24, 2015 on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
Have family in that area and they have had a LOT of snow. Given right conditions though that can disappear fast and cause major flooding.
Toggle Commented Mar 23, 2015 on The Ns are calling the maximum at Arctic Sea Ice
Sorry! Thought someone mentioned A 2011,2012, But then maybe is was not you calling it but everyone else.
Toggle Commented Mar 18, 2015 on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven has been burned a few years where all the numbers said the max had been reached and no way could anything happen to it. The Arctic then said SURPRISE!! And that include sudden upsurges in the last half of Mar. That is why Neven has imposed that rule.
Toggle Commented Mar 18, 2015 on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice In search of an Arctic 'holy grail' “Thickness is the holy grail of sea ice knowledge,” said Ben Holt, a scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. “Sea ice has been one of the most important indicators of global warming. But sea ice thickness, this really important variable, is hard to measure. It’s spatially variable – it grows in some places and has been deformed in others. There’s also a snow cover, and some instruments see just the tops of the formations, which are snow.” There is a compounding problem. Any study that deals with thinning ice tends to use data 2-3 years and older. Reasons for this include, data collection,analysis, write up, then peer review and analysis and that is not done overnight. End result maybe you end up with the year 2012 as their most studies, and we all know what happened then which could then skew some conclusions. As has been stated many times. The Arctic is always full of surprises. But then that is what makes it so much fun to watch.
Toggle Commented Mar 17, 2015 on PIOMAS March 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice