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The PIOMAS numbers will be most interesting indeed, and I've got a feeling that the maxium this year will be second lowest, perhaps lowest. My SIE minimum estimate is 2,5E6 Km^2 give or take 2 million. Though, I agree with you Wayne that the pattern this year looks very different from last year, thus another year like 2013 looks quite unlikely to me.
Toggle Commented Apr 6, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
Hans, I do not agree that we need another year to play catch up, as we have been playing that game all winter now and consequently have caught up with previous years (PIOMAS). Snow cover extent is currently much lower than last year, as well as most other years, and in my opinion snow cover is perhaps the most important indicator of what the summer melt will look like (much more than ENSO). The summer cyclones are of course the jokers, as I got to learn last year, they can easily screw up any minimum predictions.
Toggle Commented Apr 5, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
Some more stats from Longyearbyen, which is the biggest population center on the Svalbard archipelago. Although a couple of days with lower temperatures have managed to get the 30 day anomaly below 15 C, -1,7 C, which was the average temp during February, is still a spectacular 14,5 C above normal. This also happens to be a new record for February by a margin of 3,9 C (previous record from 2012, with records going back to 1899), and it is also a new anomaly record for any month of the year by a margin of 1,9 C (previous record from jan. 2006). Short term forecasts almost exclude the possibility of a repeat of such anomalies in March, though, more warmth is comming in the medium/long term forecast. Espen. Lack of ice is most certainly contributing to this madness, although I suspect that it is just as much the result, as it is the cause. I personly think stuck weather patterns is to blame.
Idunno. I recall that last time that issue came up for discussion, the conclusion was that the effects created by lack of snow cover in May/June by far outweigh the effect of increased snow cover during winter months. Both because the sheer extent of spring deficits have been larger and because the sun is higher in the sky. And I strongly doubt that local cooling from winter snow will ever be sufficient to retard increased spring melt due to AWG, as we have seen no clear signs of this so far.
Wonderful post A4R. Thank you for sharing. Temps in Longyearbyen, Svalbard continuing into uncharted territory. 30 day mean is currently at 14°C above average. 14°C!!
Toggle Commented Feb 11, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thank you for the Jan Mayen stats Christoffer, note that the temperature there has not been below normal since early December and that the current average is closer to the June normal than any other month. This is a costal climate, but still, insane. The jet stream is really struggling these days, bombarding Arctic with warmth from two sides, while, as mentioned above, leaving Russia and some neighbouring areas in deep freeze. Also interesting to note that China is about to get blowtorched really hard.
Toggle Commented Jan 27, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
You're quite right about temperatures at Svalbard at the moment Colorado, they are extreme. The Norwegian Meteorological Institute publishes a 30 day running average from Longyearbyen Airport as well as several other locations on the islands, 30 day average temps at the station mentioned are currently 9,5C above the 1964-90 average! That is truly extreme, even considering that this is regarded as the fastest warming place on Earth.
Toggle Commented Jan 25, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
jdallen_wa, I was thinking about exactly the same, and I would asume it could have a severe effect in areas dominated by FYI. But how unusual amounts of snow are we really talking about, and does PIOMAS have any similar problems with snow?
I think the number of boiling Lake Superiors is a great parameter, and I say this as a European. Finding a good reference that fits everybody isn't really possible, and personly I don't mind that much either. As far as I know, there is allready a place to discuss this, and I must admit I liked this thread a lot more when the discussions were about everything, but this widget.
As usuall, these were really interesting PIOMAS numbers. Though I think these numbers demonstrates that PIOMAS have a tendency to mimic SIE and SIA numbers more than it should, by overestimating the thickness of thin ice. I don't think such a big stall of volume growth that coincides with a compaction event, and subsequent drop of SIE numbers, can be fully explained in another way. Also interesting to note that huge wobbles are appearing in the jetstream, which is about to cause some really strange weather. On ECMWFs forecasts it almost looks like the cold pole (in 850 hPa hight) is predicted to move down to areas as far South as 50-60 degrees North, over Central Canada, and that arctic air will be flushed all the way down to northern Mexico. At the same time Alaska and far eastern siberia are going to experience some abnormally hot weather. (Perhaps it may effect the refreeze in bering) @NeilT "It undoubtedly saved millions of lives." I respectfully disagree with your attempt of justifying the bobming of Hiroshima, and I'm not going to discuss this any further on this site because of it's "off-topicness", though, I cannot avoid commenting on this clasic excample of "general ignoranse". You can read about the decisive battle that ended WWII here;
Toggle Commented Dec 5, 2013 on PIOMAS December 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
Global sea ice area is reaching it's highest level since the 90s, partly because of ridiculously large amounts of Antarctic sea ice.
Thank you very much for that wonderful link Tenney. It will certainly prove very helpful.
"Anyone want to talk sea ice? Anyone got any ideas about how long the 2013 volume pulse will persist?" I would very much like to talk sea ice again Chris, and I have some vague ideas of how long the volume pulse will persist. My opinion is that the volume gap most likely will be closed by March/February, and the main reason for that is that the average thickness still is hovering around 2012 levels. The way I view it, you will need extra amounts of compacted +3 meter thick ice if you are going to see any long term volume gains, because the winter ice in CAB will freeze 2 meter thick anyway. In other words, it doesn't really matter to volume if the ice in the CAB were 1 meter or 0 at the end of the melt because it will end up freezing ca. 2 meter thick in the winter either way, and most the extra volume this year appeares to be rather thin ice. Maybe, we will even see thickness continue to follow the 2012 line so that volume catches up simultaneously with the extent (not impossible judging by the developement of some previous years), though, it didn't seem to me like the MYI core was dispersed and weakened enough for that to happen, but you never know. Then you have the unknowns, such as weather and Farm export, but if I would make a conservative estimate of a catch up date, I would say 1 March 2014. Of course, my arguments are purely based on my own interpretation of various Arctic statistics rather than hardcore science, so feel free to strongly disagree with my reasoning.
Temperatures hovering between 5-8 C in Inuvik today, which is a full 20 degrees above normal. No wonder why snow deficits in the Canadian Arctic are piling up. Meanwhile the missing cold seems to have ended up in the deep Arctic, around 80 N. Might just be temporary, but forecast seems to suggest a possible pattern change, which would be a little of the trend we have seen for the past years. I've also been noticing the area of abnormally hot water west and north of Svaldbard appearing in DMI's SST models, which happens to be the northern most branch of the gulf stream. I can recall seeing something similar last year at this time, and I'm willing to interpret it as a sign of increased oceanic heat transport to the Atlantic Arctic during autumn months. But to what extent has there been done direct measurements of this part of the gulf stream that could signal to us how heat transport are being effected by the melting sea ice in the Atlantic sector? And could such a phenomenon potentially have any significant impact on future summer melts?
I think you are spot on jdallen, and it will indeed be interesting to see what kind of winter we get in the northern hemisphere this season. Things are not boding well for those who are expecting "normal" conditions I'm afraid. I also cannot avoid noticing how all kinds of data comming from NOAA is left unavailable because of the US shutdown; I guess what is going on in the Arctic is defined as "non essential". How ironic...
Toggle Commented Oct 8, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Siberian snow cover anomalies seem to be soaring, and I must admit I am slightly surprised by seeing this so early in the season. I suspect the chronically wacked up jet stream somehow is to blame for this, but I would appriciate if someone could give us some more insight into what might become a record breaking event.
Toggle Commented Oct 6, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Whenever lakes freezes over in the area where I live, cold and clear skies are not always the things that matter the most, but rather how much snow that falls on topp of the ice. I mean, cold is of course a very important factor, but my experience is that a thick insulating snow cover can prevent the ice from growing properly even in the coldest of times, and vice versa, you don't really need that much cold to grow strong, thick ice if there is no snow on top of it. I wonder to what extent these insulating abilities of the snow might effect the regrowth of sea ice during fall and winter. If, lets say, a storm where to dump a abnormal amount of snow of newly created sea ice, or if snow depth remained 50% above average for the entire winter, how much, if any, would it effect ice thickness and the following summer melt in that particular area?
Toggle Commented Sep 21, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
How increadibly sad it is to watch this "Daily Fail crap" spread all over the world like a runaway virus, poisoning the minds of millions of people. So much for the free press.
Toggle Commented Sep 10, 2013 on IPCC crisis meeting at Arctic Sea Ice
Just saying; If PIOMAS continues as it did in 2007, it will almost catch up with 2012 by November. And if it sticks to the 2009 trend, it will be far below 2011 by the end of the year and far below both 2012 and 2013 by March.
Toggle Commented Sep 7, 2013 on PIOMAS September 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
I must admit that I have a bad record when it comes to making sea-ice-predictions, though, I have to say, that I will be extremely surprised if we were to see an even close to normal refreeze rate during late september and early October this year. The areas north of Franz Josef, that one would expect to freeze early, are perhaps hotter than ever, and the areas of the Central basin, ESS and CAA that would usually freeze in October are allready covered in close to 100% consentration ice. When the relativly small amount of easy-to-freeze ruble have frozen, I expect to see some steep drops in SIA anomaly, especially if that high pressure system decides to stay for a while.
First I would like to ask; what is Mark Serreze's definition of a cyclone? Does virtually every depression going below 1000 pHa count as a cyclone, or do you need to have a low pressure that genetares 25m/s winds? What we have been discussing for the past month, and what many of us have found astonishing, is the strength and sometimes the persistence of the individual cyclone, and the number of which the really strong cyclones have been appearing. Last years GAC was the strongest summer-cyclone every recorded in the Arctic, and this year we have had three cyclones with a minimun pressure just 10 pHa weaker than GAC, one of whom swirled around for three to four weeks. If Serreze says that is not unusual, I simply do not believe him. Though, if he defines even a very weak low pressure system as a cyclone, and counts these strong storms as just another cyclone, then I can very much belive that there is nothing unusual with the sheer number of cyclones this year. But then again that is not the reason why so many of us has declared this season highly unusual.
This cyclone developed with such speed that it may qualify as a bomb cyclone, thus becoming the ABC-2013 :) Actually I think we got time for one more 980 pHa cyclone in the central basin this year. ECMWF keeps spawning powerfull cyclones in its long term forecasts (we have got another one today). Of course, those forecasts are just mere speculations, but as new storms keep popping up in their long term prognosis, the likelihood of one actually comming through becomes quite significant.
Toggle Commented Aug 8, 2013 on Third storm at Arctic Sea Ice
It seems to me that many people are not so worried about GIS because it is surrounded by mountains and therefore can't just slip into the ocean and disappear like the WAIS. However, I still think Greenland can melt really fast, first of all because GIS is not situated on top of a mountain range, like parts of East Antarctica, just surrounded by them. This means that the icecap can flow virtually freely towards any place along the western edge, as the ice melts there, because it don't have to flow through mountains, which again means that the rate of which GIS is going to melt is almost entirely determined by the melt on the edges and not the melt (or lack of melt) on summit camp and the central inland. In other words, the cap doesn't have to melt in place just because it can't all end up in the ocean, it will instead flow towards the warmest area inside the Greenland "mountain ring", and such hot spots are allready popping up on the western edge (Just look at Jai Mitchells map and see how the ice is allready flowing towards the south western edge even though there are no outlets into the ocean there). What I think will eventually happen when the edges have torched for long enough, and when the flow away from the inland has been accelerating for a while, is that the central parts of GIS will start loosing the high altitudes that have kept it cool, because parts of its volume has slipped away (Mind you that only 100 meter loss of altitude leads to almost 1 C of warming). Combine that with some decades more of global warming and the melt will really take of.
According to DMI, the warmest temperature ever recorded on Greenland (records going back to 1958) is 25,5 degrees. So I think we may be looking at a new record.
Another facinating detail that is worth to notice in A-team's animation is how the black and white pole in the foreground slowly reappears from the snow it was almost covered by. I am realy suprised by how fast the snow melts.