“I've been surprised that housing hasn’t recovered more robustly than it has. In part, I think it reflects very tight credit … for any borrower that doesn’t have really pristine credit …” - Fed Chair Janet Yellen, FOMC Press Conference, December 17, 2014 In my May UCLA Economic Letter, I... Continue reading

In my November UCLA Economic Letter, I consider when the Fed may increase the federal funds rate. As was widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently announced the end of its current round of asset purchases, which began two years ago and left the Fed holding $4 trillion... Continue reading

In my August UCLA Economic Letter, I discuss the Fed’s interest-rate policy under Chair Janet Yellen. Since the onset of the financial crisis in 2007, the Fed has taken extraordinary steps to support the economy and financial markets. Seven years later, a gradual return to more normal policy is now... Continue reading

Contrary to the prevailing view that only borrowers with pristine credit records can get a mortgage these days, many risky loans are still being made. A new index published by the International Center on Housing Risk at the American Enterprise Institute shows that many of today's mortgages would not perform... Continue reading

My latest Real Clear Markets op-ed, "It Would Be a Shock If the Fed Were To Change Its Policy," examines the record of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy action. Continue reading

Assuming Janet Yellen's nomination is confirmed as the next chair of the Federal Reserve, she will be stepping into one of the toughest jobs in America. In my latest LA Times op-ed, "Storm Clouds for the Fed," I suggest that we move on to more important issues: the daunting challenges... Continue reading

President Obama could soon announce his nominee to replace Ben Bernanke as the Chair of the Federal Reserve. Larry Summers, the Harvard professor and former Treasury Secretary with strong ties to the Obama administration, appears to be the favorite over Janet Yellen, the current Fed Vice Chair. In my September... Continue reading

The media and the markets have trouble predicting when the Fed will reduce its purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities under the Quantitative Easing (QE) program. Confused observers have been concerned that it will come sooner than the fall. In my June 2013 UCLA Economic Letter, I explain that it... Continue reading

My Real Clear Markets op-ed, "QE: A Guide For the Perplexed," discusses Wall Street's recent price swing and the media's confusion after Chairman Bernanke's Capitol Hill testimony on the the economy, monetary policy and the Fed's intentions for the stimulus program. Continue reading

Discussions about the economy tend to focus much more on the Fed’s latest program to stimulate spending and the drama on Capitol Hill than on the potential for the economy to generate higher income over the long haul. In April's UCLA Economic Letter, “How Fast Can the Economy Grow? That... Continue reading

The final lap of the Bernanke era at the Fed has begun. His current term as Chairman ends next January, and the odds that he would stay on for four more years are close to zero. What should his legacy be? You can read my recent op-ed in Real Clear... Continue reading

In my recent op-ed in Real Clear Markets, I argue that it hasn't and offer a proposal that would give the Fed more leeway to ease policy. Continue reading