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oops! that should be overestimating
I've suspected all year that piomas may be underestimating the mass of the ice, that is much of it formed from snowfall and freezing fog from above, rather than solid ice from below. So instead of solid ice we have a 'layer cake' of snow and ice disinclined to topple or sustain melt ponds, and prone to break into small floes and be blown around easier. Yet to be convinced i'm right but still suspect it.
Some cracking movies here, now how do I slow them down.
Toggle Commented Jan 19, 2014 on Bromine, chlorine and mercury at Arctic Sea Ice
jdallen_wa From above "Molecular chlorine concentrations peaked in the early morning and late afternoon, and fell to near-zero levels at night. Average daytime molecular chlorine levels were correlated with ozone concentrations, suggesting that sunlight and ozone may be required for molecular chlorine formation." so not entirely my speculation, though I did wonder about the definition of early morning and late afternoon with 24 hour daylight. My figures work at 52N so are not altogether comparable.
Toggle Commented Jan 17, 2014 on Bromine, chlorine and mercury at Arctic Sea Ice
We're wired up using copper compounds, mercury is easily substituted for copper atoms in these compounds, mercury may or may not fire and relay any signal or may delay the signal firing it later at random, copper reliably relays signals received. This way lies madness. IIRC the Ozone hole is worst in the morning before 10:00 and repairs itself up until about 16:00 so I wonder if this has something to do with UV or does Ozone also inhibit any other part of the EM spectrum?
Toggle Commented Jan 17, 2014 on Bromine, chlorine and mercury at Arctic Sea Ice
That should have been here
Ostepop1000 My amateur way of understanding this is that the compaction takes place on a small scale,look here and you'll see the wind driven eddies are smaller as you go north, and in the far north as you approach the axis of rotation become more or less a blur on the margins. In 2007 with the high pressure, and the wind opposing the ocean circulation large numbers of local compaction events took place. This year with persistent low pressure and the wind reinforcing the ocean currents, the ice is continuously dispersing. Further and I'm much less confident about this, in the compaction events the ice was driven north, from a high energy state in terms of the earths rotational speed to a lower one, and thus tended to melt to preserve equilibrium, this year the opposite is taking place, that is once the inertia imparted by the wind drives the ice too far south it tends to freeze. So what happens when/if we get a high pressure system?
.75 m^2K I view this as very conservative, looking at this graph, which to my mind is tracking the mean more than predictive, looking at the residuals shows despite the numbers/records we've had 2 years of reverting to the mean/recovery! Personally I prefer the green line in this graph, since it looks more realistic for the beginning of the curve, and I would like to see the residuals for that line, which would show a more pronounced recovery still. Again ignoring the numbers, but eyeballing all the graphs on ASIG, seems to indicate entering new territory around D230, so lets say Aug. 21 for a new record, based on the 4 common elements of the melt season graphs, which are the initial curve around peak ice, the following 2 slopes which change around the solstice and the slowdown/recovery curve from early sept. to the equinox. Once established the 2 slopes tend to persist albeit with deviation, and this years post solstice slope is particularly steep, across the graphs, indicating, to me at least, the possibility of entering September in record territory. I think we have a new regime in the disguise of the old.
.75 +/-1, 30 years,3 first interested in 76 when it didn't rain[daytime] for 5months 3 weeks and then rained for a week ,if memory serves, stopped flying in 83 'til 99 when i considered situation lost, have since joined the lunatics in their wanton consumption. Relied on my subconscious,[ what i thought when i woke up] after following every lead and considering every hypothesis/assertion, here and elsewhere, as time permitted. I'd be surprised to enter September above 3.8, the only variable too difficult to take any account of is the model NSIDC uses, so I expect to be wrong.
0 When I look at this graph I see the red line as the new mean and as such the last two years can be seen as recovery years, so this year could see a radical drop, the balance of probabilities suggest that lots of snow cover led to a late freeze at depth and consequently poor ice quality of FYI. Without a shred of hard evidence I believe lots of fresh water left through Fram with the ice replaced by warmer Pacific /Atlantic waters. Once the FYI begins to melt I expect it to be rapid leaving vast areas for the breaking up MYI to get blown into and isolated in, leading to it too rapidly melting. If this process isn't largely underway by July 25th then I may change my view.
Schism now expected north of Ellesmere
Toggle Commented Mar 16, 2013 on Crack is bad for you (and sea ice) at Arctic Sea Ice
"if you can call something with a few inches of freeboard a wall" that's a few X 9inches below giving a haven for warmer water to 'hide+refresh' from the flow below. On the USNavy site signs of the lift off of the thick ice from the central archipelago area are growing and anytime soon the first permanent lead may open somewhere like 130W 72N.
Toggle Commented Mar 15, 2013 on Crack is bad for you (and sea ice) at Arctic Sea Ice
A-Team fwiw my view is that the retreat of Nares from the south is due to the pressure of PW/AW? from the north undermining the ice as it breaks through, that means it would have to be very energetic at Lincoln, which predicates a rapid thaw of the whole channel, and even as I say it I don't believe it, but can't think of a plausible alternative. If it was coming from north of Banks is.through to Devon is. you'd think it'd be exhausted likewise through Nares but from where to the south? zero possibilities. So on a balance of probabilities basis I'd guess PW halted by the thick ice of the pyramid turning south. But don't quote me.
Toggle Commented Mar 14, 2013 on The cracks of dawn at Arctic Sea Ice
Following up to my previous comment above, it took about 20 days last year from the beggining of signs of [imho] bottom melt at Banks island until there was an opening formed between there and Mackenzie bay, given this is much earlier in the [melt?]season lets give it 30 with nuetral weather so around the 28th+/- but before the 10th of April even with unfavourable weather until we see the same this year.
Toggle Commented Mar 13, 2013 on The cracks of dawn at Arctic Sea Ice
With the cracks still propagating northwards and the ice in it's very fractured state, checkout Chris R.s post at 21:38 above, I still think a record low is likely. It's only one feature, but I compared this image and this image one, just looking at the western aspect of Banks island to see how early the thinning was, but 70 odd days ahead?
Toggle Commented Mar 12, 2013 on The cracks of dawn at Arctic Sea Ice
On the 5th at 23:55 I wrote"If my guess above has anything to do with reality i expect the Alaskan bays to begin melting from close to the shore outwards, same in Mackenzie bay and adjoining areas," "Banks island too" More ambiguous but somethings going on. There's also signs of an acceleration north of Barrow, and although the thick ice against the central coast[s] of of the archipelago appears to be growing I suspect this is just the prelude to it lifting clear in the tides over the next few days. "Also if it makes it to Morris Jessup it will turn south hug the coast and separate the ice from the coast. Not too sure of the last might break through the archipelago instead, but give it 3-4 days." Too difficult to see anything clearly related here but I remain convinced that the Pacific waters are eroding the seaward edges of Chris's Puramid and driving the AW beneath it. Tides more usually see the sea pulled towards the moon and then relax back in an elastic fashion, returning pretty much to where it was. Due to the particular geography of Bering strait any water passing through is too energetically charged to pass back again and thus we get pulses [of maybe 2-3 hours] of inflow twice a day and with the new moon tomorrow we should expect them to be larger. So I expect the cracks to start getting wider the pyramid to shrink and the channels through the archipelago to become more active. All that said I find it difficult to beleive this would be happening if the winds were'nt driving so much out of Fram
Toggle Commented Mar 11, 2013 on The cracks of dawn at Arctic Sea Ice
Not all the cracks are caused by the same mechanisms, those which follow the cotidal lines in direction are most likely caused by EKE and opened due to bottom melt, they are fed by an ongoing supply of energy and thus stay open and widen. Others that get the same energetic input are where a change in ice thickness occur, plus any incidental cracks that open and coincidently appear to follow [more or less] the cotidal contours, having thus created their own impedance. I expect those cracks closer to perpendicular to the above to be short lived given the conditions above the ice. The melt I anticipate is also going to arrive from below [if my guess is correct]but must first force the water in situ out , in the case of Mackenzie bay that means sqeezing it out laterally to either side of banks island before the process can properly get underway. So I expect Banks island to show melt first. If prevailing conditions change a rapid freeze over will, of course, occur.
Toggle Commented Mar 6, 2013 on The cracks of dawn at Arctic Sea Ice
If my guess above has anything to do with reality i expect the Alaskan bays to begin melting from close to the shore outwards, same in Mackenzie bay and adjoining areas, Banks island too. Also if it makes it to Morris Jessup it will turn south hug the coast and separate the ice from the coast. Not too sure of the last might break through the archipelago instead, but give it 3-4 days.
Toggle Commented Mar 5, 2013 on The cracks of dawn at Arctic Sea Ice
Chris I meant that the cracks were formed as a consequence of tidal forces, and that once opened they would set the ice free to rotate [especially where the cracks ran lattitudinally] Without the cracks I would expect the thin ice to be in the wind shadow of the thicker ice and for localised turbulence to largely prevent the wind gaining purchase. Although with such an extensive high no doubt some smaller cracks and compression would occur, but if nothing was going on below I'd expect the openings to be short lived, in current conditions. A-Team wow right back at you for all the stuff you do, and thanks.
Toggle Commented Mar 3, 2013 on The cracks of dawn at Arctic Sea Ice
Fwiw I think its tidal here's why, the moon was at it's northernmost extreme for this months cycle late 19early20feb plus the full moon on the 25th That said I don't think it would happen without a high/low system positioned to drive water out/in through Fram /Bering straits respectively, or possibly both. So my guess would be a large body of water was driven out of Fram [possibly twice a day for a week or so] inducing a flow in from the pacific. The pacific water would be fresher thus lighter and although the first flush would be from under the ice in the strait the rest would previously been south of 60degN and thus have a kinetic speed due to the earths rotation of 519miles per hour whatever its apparent motion, at 75degN it 's speed would be 268miles per hour and thus it would be writhing with an excess of kinetic energy of 100+ meters per second. To be energetically "comfortable" this/these bodies of water would "want" to flow east and be as far from the axis of rotation as possible, that is south or surface. They would be induced to flow to replenish the waters lost through Fram, and would set off like a slowmo bolt of lightning, the current heading north, but with a rotational [clockwise] energy in each wave perpendicular to the flow [like magnetism when a current flows in cable]. So like a huge log rolling beneath a wave and heading east due to its rotational momentum, but since its heading north picking up more potential energy on the way. To expand the electrical analogy I think a cross section though the flow would show it surrounded by smaller induced contraflow vortices wrapped around it like armoured cable, but I can't 'get' which way these are wrapped or their number, but 7 +, and these act like small centrifuges concentrating the heat at the top, and the salt downwards, and I think carry potential energy in the opposite direction to the main current and that this interacts with the main flow. I'm pretty sure this vortice thing goes on down at least a further level too and that the electicity/magnetism analogy holds at every level. As these waves rotate clockise+ eastwards at the surface [well as close as they can] any impediment such as thicker ice will potentially halt their progress, the potential energy then erodes the ice and gets dissipated north /south until a breakthough/backup occurs/arrives when the surface is broken or it dives under the ice and proceeds. Of course beneath this the circumpolar current of atlantic waters continue to flow with their wave systems not aligned to the surface waves but still shedding heat upwards as they in their turn begin to head north again as they approach the Canadian archipelago. Just as the motion of the southern water leads to an excess of energetic potential when it goes north,thus forcing it east, so as the northern ice heads south it 's apparent motion lags behind the earths rotational rate and thus it heads west, or clockwise [out of Fram?] and has to acquire energy or freeze harder? [ot, the only place with no evidence of this is the western shore of Ross sea ] I was sort of expecting something like this around the 10-15th of April [at the earliest], if local weather conditions at Fram/Bering were conducive, but was expecting that to seperate the myi from the coast of the archipelago, once detatched I expected it to rotate clockwise and begin to dissapear out of Fram, leaving no safe harbour [in the coarse inverted topography of the m.y.mechanically impacted ice] for the fresh water from arctic rivers when they begin to flow. archive typical This fresher water would then likely end up flowing through to Baffin. Thats a game changer. Anyway that's my amatuer guess, typical action of EKE but writ large.
Toggle Commented Mar 3, 2013 on The cracks of dawn at Arctic Sea Ice
Steve I've been watching and thinking about this since Waynes post in october when he pointed out that despite the satelites telling us sea ice was forming, the conditions were not right, that is although the sea was cold enough air temps were above -11C and he suggested we had snow cover. Consequently a thin insulating layer protected the ocean and sufficient time passed for the summer melt waters to be flushed out. I'd say it's a racing certanty that most of the fresh water has been flushed out, but I don't always win my bets.
Toggle Commented Feb 12, 2013 on Open Thread February 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
kinetic energy is difficult to imagine to begin with, so try this thought experiment. Take a sphere, [football/basketball size], filled with water and have it tied to a pole say with a 4m length of string, set it in frictionless motion so it orbits the pole, now halve the length of the string, and imagine it is constrained from doubling its orbital speed, it will describe a sine wave about the path of its orbit so that this oscilating line equals in distance the old orbital circumference. It will also be rotating about its own axis twice as fast as previously. Its not a football/basketball, its a ballon and all the tensions of its new state will be expressed on its surface, actually its more like a big soap bubble. Of course the radius from the center shifts far more subtly but if 85N =R1 80N=R2 75N=R3 and 70N=R4 and that takes you from Canada's north shore to the top of Greenland this study moves through just 4deg. Unless we get a massive build-up of ice soon the atlantic waters which appear to have flushed out the protecting layer of fresh water from beneath the ice sheet are going to destroy any ice clinging to the archipelago/greenland coast. Just as the apparent motion of ice/water heading north is eastwards so the apparent motion of ice/water heading south is westward, or clockwise,[and curiously has to gain energy or freeze] so once the ice disconnects from the coast it will be set free to rotate and exit through Fram strait, as A-Team has already spotted it doing on the Piomas thread.
Toggle Commented Feb 11, 2013 on Open Thread February 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
Sam I think that this year we've 'seen' the fresh water normally retained beneath the mechanically processed thick ice leave through Fram and with it the old normal, I feel we're on watch through the very cusp of drastic change. Of course there's no certainties but I fear I'll be more suprised by a 'normal' sort of year than something extraordinary, possibly beginning as early as aprils new or full moon, depending on local weather conditions then and no great build up of ice mass meanwhile.
Toggle Commented Feb 10, 2013 on PIOMAS February 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
Bob D there's an archive here
Toggle Commented Feb 5, 2013 on Open Thread February 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
2013 down under
Toggle Commented Jan 29, 2013 on 2013 Open thread #1 at Arctic Sea Ice