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wayne
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A record shattering Cold Temperature North Pole vortice exists over Ellesmere Island at present. This is extremely interesting, remember the film "Day after Tomorrow" , it portrayed something similar, but very badly maimed the meteorology. A Cold center can usually thrive when weather is stable, the stability here is from enhanced Anthropogenic Warming. There was another failed theory, the "Iris Effect", by professor Lindzen at MIT. This theory called for heat to escape to space when Earth got too warm. https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2020/01/coldest-new-years-eve-cold-temperature.html The problem with the Iris effect theory, in terms in what is happening now, is the real current Iris is way too small, swallowed by a sea of warming. Thinner sea ice has also played a role here, it shifted the CTNP back Eastwards over the Archipelago, much apt to deep freeze easily.
Toggle Commented Jan 3, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
And so we now see what happens when the Arctic circulation pattern becomes freakish, record warming in many places of the world, a none white Christmas, with no immediate cooling in sight. How did this happen: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/12/christmas-2019-polar-vortex-shrinkage.html Look no further but in the Arctic, where record thin or no sea ice played and will play a role. The roller coaster temperature not-so-merry-go-round exists, not in Western Europe and North America at present, but does elsewhere. I guess I can tease the fake anti science sceptic's now; the calendar is not wrong, is warm hey? Try to remember if you can?
Toggle Commented Dec 30, 2019 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Robert, Being a staunch critic of PIOMAS at times, I can say it right so far this winter. There was a lot of open water at minima 2019, this created by-Polar Cold Temperature North Poles , extreme cold vortices hovering above each Northern continents. Being as such a CTNP may bring up warmth on one side of it, but cold much dryer air towards the Arctic ocean on the other, which has occurred for about a month or so. This years circulation by CTNP's positioning has rapidly covered the vast open water areas dramatically increasing ice volume particularly on the Pacific sector of the Pole. If you want to literally see a recent strong CTNP (a non rogue vortice) in action watch this: http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/12/pacific-air-meets-atlantic-cloudsover.html It does not mean the coming ice age, but the coming -way to the South-smaller but extremely cold rogue vortices, Southern people will be feeing like the coming ice age in populated areas, sort triggering brilliant people like President Trump to comment to millions about superbly ignorant climatology. All while forgetting how much warmer the overall winter has become, as they are fond in saying "in your neck of the woods" .
Toggle Commented Dec 22, 2019 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
The following article outlines the coming winter outlook for the Northern Hemisphere, it will be laced with rock and roll extreme warm/bottom freezing cold rogue vortices: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/12/warming-polar-vortex-makes-its-internal.html Amongst other geophysics, it also explains that 2007 and 2012 were great melt years by La-Nina's as opposed to 2016 and 19 El-Ninos. Far less clouds during Arctic summers can wipe out nearly all existing Arctic sea ice, especially in current sea ice precarious health, luckily, it seems La-Nina's have not rebounded likewise to post 1998, ironies never stop until the days all good chances run out.
Toggle Commented Dec 17, 2019 on PIOMAS November 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Oh in BC you can easily have 2 close to each other lakes, one sufficiently higher than the other for hydro power. So connect them with water pipeline , nothing new, in Roman times they were aqueducts. These 2 lakes may create a perpetually clean battery, with solar and wind power pumping water up, and B.C. hydro extracting steady power 24 hours a day with water coming down, a nearly forever energy loop. The lakes don't have to be huge, may be artificial, but eco friendly. We have had this solution since just after Nikola Tesla walked around Niagara Falls in the early 1900's. What are we waiting for?
Toggle Commented Dec 10, 2019 on PIOMAS November 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Robert Not if they are made with solar or wind power... :)
Toggle Commented Dec 10, 2019 on PIOMAS November 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Kevin The recent less Dissolved Oxygen in ocean bad news, top with increased ocean acidity, on top of other ongoing climate related disasters makes those who still insist that all is well with polluting, 'business as usual is great', makes them look like the most delusional people in history. Sort like just prior the end of the Roman empire, Romans praising the barbarian hordes as peace loving reformers without a bone of vengeance in their bodies. https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/12/significant-additional-cooling-after.html Ever felt a big chill right after a snow storm?? It isn't just the cold air causing it. Snow sublimation contributes to the cooling. It is sort of a cruel irony that people will tend to feel much colder after more frequent such storms because of the type of warmer snowflakes just fallen. It will not help to sway the fake skeptics about the origins of Global Warming one little bit....
Toggle Commented Dec 9, 2019 on PIOMAS November 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
rights of ...... opps :) is good to be back
Toggle Commented Nov 30, 2019 on PIOMAS November 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
There are lots of unusual gyrations from vortices within the struggling mangled Polar Vortex this fall: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/11/stretched-out-warmed-polar-vortex.html https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/11/arctic-resurrection-lows-passing-baffin.html A massive cloud clearing usually happens from Mid-October, not this autumn https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/11/november-clearance-not-sale-of-arctic.html Finally I have a bone to pick with Canadian professor out of his depth thanks to the fame he somehow acquired by battling the rights transvestites (sounds funny but is no joke). However this is an excellent opportunity to reintroduce basic sun energy facts and to warn others, who one day will have fame, not to let it go to their heads: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/11/a-little-word-on-solar-panels-not-quite.html Also a little word of praise to those like Neven with solar panels on their rooftops. They work even in Canada! I am so proud to say.
Toggle Commented Nov 30, 2019 on PIOMAS November 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Speaking 'bout images, 2019 is on a serious contention path to exceed 2012 super melt. As I wrote months ago, the dye was set during the winter just past: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/06/bye-bye-2012-record-course.html I give 70% likelyhood of 2012 being beaten and a commercial shipping lane near the North Pole to happen.
Toggle Commented Jun 9, 2019 on PIOMAS June 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Noticed your weather being a bit regular? Lots of rain in one place, a lot of sun in other locations? https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/06/stall-all-northern-hemisphere-systems.html The Arctic climate is important, as important as ENSO...
Toggle Commented Jun 5, 2019 on PIOMAS May 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Jim Yea there could be 2 types in the sub-Arctic, but Arctic summer cyclones give seldom surface warmer temperatures than adjoining anticyclones, for the mere reason that permafrost and sea ice double team on the extra clouds albedo factor, when cloudy the energy imbalance favors a cooling on the surface. As opposed to when there is an anticyclone with 24 hour sunlight. You have to spend a night in a tent in arctic summer to know that you need a very large cushion not to feel the cooling from below. In the upper air there can be warm cores, but the surface remains cooler.
Toggle Commented May 30, 2019 on PIOMAS May 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
By the way Jim I thanked you for one word correction on my web page latest article... nisi perfectum
Toggle Commented May 28, 2019 on PIOMAS May 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Another That is the biggest highlight of 2019 to date, the incredible warming of Alaska region for months. Not for a few days, but since late last year. You'd think Alaskans would be loud about this.... There is definitely a consistent higher total precipitable water column, a warming by-product of course.
Toggle Commented May 28, 2019 on PIOMAS May 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Yes Jim It did come from somewhere , likely Alaska, but appeared to materialize spontaneously :) 2012 has something similar to 2019, albeit by the models which call for El-Nino to grow. 2012 had a small El-Nino which dissolved after mid July or so. My opinion agrees with yours, 2019 is worse than 12, so far. There has been substantial wet systems , ie precipitable water seems higher now a days....
Toggle Commented May 28, 2019 on PIOMAS May 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
The current apparent slowing of sea ice extent melt is a by-product of the advent of summer 3 weeks earlier than last year: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/05/early-switchover-warming-signal-slows.html What happens next is strictly a matter of Arctic solar penetration, which in turn depends on how much heat will widen the temperature dew point spread. If summer comes earlier, this spread has a very high chance of being large.
Toggle Commented May 26, 2019 on PIOMAS May 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
There has never been a climate like this in Arctic recorded history: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/05/unrecognizable-in-21-years-warming.html Imagine, only in 20 years or so, we are dealing with unfamiliar climatic features which affect all of us. Only if "all of us" can see and understand this will there be more success in averting even much worser changes.
Toggle Commented May 18, 2019 on PIOMAS April 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
2019 sea ice extent is remarkably dwindling fast despite the fact that current ENSO conditions are very different than el-Nino 2016: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/05/clouded-global-heat-transfers-from.html But 2018 is currently #1 lowest extent, despite having a winter La-Nina, even colder winter spring season than 2019. This means a dispersed heat throughout all oceans are compensating against the usual sea ice extent variations.
Toggle Commented May 14, 2019 on PIOMAS April 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks to TV weather presenters, many know, during winter what happens in the Arctic doesn't stay there. But do they know if it is similar to the summer season? What happens in the Arctic may make your back yard much hotter. https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/05/post-collapse-iii-flipping-summer.html The great Canadian Arctic Archipelago vortice demise has already given or has changed the temperature outlook.
Toggle Commented May 11, 2019 on PIOMAS April 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/05/post-collapse-circulation-model.html 2019 Arctic spring cold temperature north pole (CTNP) collapse has already shown some results, more warming further South than expected a mere day ago......
Toggle Commented May 6, 2019 on PIOMAS April 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Along with 2019 having again today the lowest sea ice extent in history, Arctic tropospheric temperatures are shooting upwards dramatically, suddenly, despite some early spring cooler anomalies: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/05/collapse-caa-cold-temperature-north.html Sudden wide region intense tropospheric warmings come more often in the Arctic. The current one is not forecasted to be short lived. Which is not at all what happened last year.
Toggle Commented May 4, 2019 on PIOMAS April 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi David Although I have personally witnessed a few Sudden Stratospheric Warming events, not often, none gave me a great impression at all.... https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/04/stratospheric-temperatures-ruler-is.html What influences stratospheric temps is ozone, and the stratosphere often does not influence tropospheric temps, the link above shows recent example.
Toggle Commented Apr 28, 2019 on PIOMAS April 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
There is data all over the place Robert..... Look at this: http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=96&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0 The bi-continental splitting in 2 of Polar Vortex is not done because sea ice is frozen hard and somehow warms the Upper Air... This occurs when heat from the sea is joining the rising steady in sky sun to warm the air above the sea ice breaking releasing heat Arctic Ocean. Mean time, I compare NOAA and ECMWF summer temperature projections vs EH2r https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/04/noaa-ecmwf-ai-vs-eh2r-long-range-summer.html The formers depend largely on ENSO, I use both Arctic Polar Vortex and ENSO, let's see who will be right? Last year AI's did not do too well.
Toggle Commented Apr 26, 2019 on PIOMAS April 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Another This is the time to remember, especially at sea ice extent minima. When it may not be at the same rank. It is hardly possible to have historical lowest extent at one period of the year, at any random date and not conclude that extent is at all time lowest, but spreads out by circulation reasons which does not necessarily explain its true condition.
Toggle Commented Apr 22, 2019 on PIOMAS April 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
The biggest story of this spring so is the cooling of the CAA surrounded by warming all over the place. In fact, as the sun rose higher since long night sunrise , the Archipelago's upper atmosphere got colder even to this day: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/04/2019-annual-end-of-spring-and-summer.html Confused? It is all explained in my annual projection of coming weather and temperatures for the Northern Hemisphere , with a special sea ice feature, which beat nearly all models in 2018. As some remember , they did not forecast all time hot summer for a great chunk of North America.......
Toggle Commented Apr 21, 2019 on PIOMAS April 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice