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wayne
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I guarantee it wont be so quiet soon, there are many geophysical features combining to make 2020 seriously challenge 2012 minima extent. One is lots of snow, an illusion giver, who knows if instruments depict correct sea ice thickness when there is a lot of snow? With greater snow cover the sea ice is naturally thinner. 2 is general circulation, quite different than last year, mainly driven by a rapidly shrinking Polar Vortex. How dissimilar? Arctic 25 May had warmest density weighted atmosphere since 2012, despite the albedo cooling plenty of snow cover. There is also something which has contributed to the sea ice ice overall being thinner, it must be the upper Arctic Ocean temperature column. So expect in coming days a rapid disintegration of sea ice extent, that's when the snow carpet finally mostly sublimates, lifts the illusion and announces the visual onset of the strong melt season.
Toggle Commented yesterday on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Cleaner Atmosphere + likely biggest N.H. Ozone Hole in recorded history + Polar Vortex center settling over the North Pole = Super summer melt Here I log its beginning: http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2020/05/history-of-recent-rogue-vortice-from.html Not that cleaner air is bad, but as a matter of coincidence, a pristine atmosphere at middle of summer, after years, decades of polluted particulate air spells further doom, might not have been so if the economies grinded to a halt last September.
Toggle Commented May 13, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
The #1 event in the High Arctic at present is the adiabatic nature of upper air profiles, numerous, very early on the season. The other is the JAXA map North Atlantic melting pattern, very similar to my hand sketch seen here: http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2020/04/annual-spring-summer-autumn-northern.html This is the first part of annual projection to read first done before JAXA colours.
Toggle Commented May 1, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Jim, My methods will be orthodox or standard when someone else practices them :) Speaking of my strongest technique requiring a lot of work, the refraction of the vertical sun disk, if I had an alarm bell, I would ring it very loud now. The sun disks are expanding fast, as I write this, in the West - Northwest sector from center of Arctic archipelago. Never observed likewise since 2003 and thousands of such observations, this sector usually had glacial cold atmosphere since it is from a just risen and low High Arctic sun . At any rate predictions are finally all done for the record: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2020/04/2020-annual-spring-projection-in-more.html my predictions over the years were quite good about everything except sea ice extent, but hurray I was right last year.... I might be getting a hold of it. One must read this one first: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2020/04/2020-annual-spring-projection-in-more.html before going into details.
Toggle Commented Apr 27, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
I have corrected the software glitch: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2020/04/annual-spring-summer-autumn-northern.html more details are slowly coming out: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2020/04/2020-annual-spring-projection-in-more.html
Toggle Commented Apr 24, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
2 months passed already, with multiple daily observations at crucial late winter period, giving this first report: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2020/04/annual-spring-summer-autumn-northern.html This projection foresees a departure in general circulations. It does not look good for sea ice again, the data was observed during extreme events. IN addition, consider the lessening of pollution world wide a time to contemplate the truer colours of sunsets as well. You might be shocked. But lesser particulate pollution means more sea ice melting and warmer temperatures where you live, another shock in the making. More finer data on the next report by week end.
Toggle Commented Apr 21, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
The likely lowest extent in history of the lower in altitude Arctic Polar Vortex has been occurring this winter: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2020/03/2020-lower-polar-vortex-shrank-by-85.html Some similarities with 2012 pattern has been noted. The colder surface temperatures within the CTNP's are quite interesting as well, , again part of a newer climate surfacing.
Toggle Commented Mar 13, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Love your Graphs Jim, however there is a missing one, inspired by a well known paper , it is safe to say that loss of sea ice thickness releases more energy from the Arctic Ocean. Let's say as an example 7 million square kilometers new ice compared to pre 80's, giving heat from a conservative estimate, say 10 watt/m2 extra heat in the atmosphere, 70,000 Gigawatts , all this straight to the lower atmosphere loaded with extra green house gases. This missing graph would represent the precise calculation of energy from the sea ice surface as it was and as it is now. No small graph. Such a display would illuminate the very reasoning of which I surmised a shrinking Polar Vortex.
Toggle Commented Feb 25, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Jim and Shalom to Judah Yes not surprising on the thinness, it is locally much thinner despite prolonged cloud free skies in what was total darkness. Now I need to have a clearer picture of the nature of CTNP size and strength, it will take 2 months. Sorry about the coming rain!
Toggle Commented Feb 22, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Have you ever heard of the "8 Omicron" midwinter Polar Vortex pattern? It exists, take a look: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2020/02/winter-2020-breaks-8-omicron.html The 8 pattern is not happening in 2020 , making predicting coming weather much easier, unfortunately for rain soaked places throughout the Northern Hemisphere, it does not look any dryer at all. Only here on a website dedicated to Arctic sea ice will you read such discoveries, because they stem from studying sea ice.
Toggle Commented Feb 21, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
"There hasn’t been much in the way of cold air intrusions into mid latitudes or warm air intrusions into the Arctic." Hear hear Jim That is because the Polar Vortex was an is smaller, not only because sea ice over all morphology is mainly thinner, but all oceans sst's , except the Pacific equator being particularly warmer. But 2019-20 winter keeps on distancing itself from preceding 8 or 9 winters. In terms of circulation: http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2020/02/now-that-is-strange-really- different.html With unfamiliar circulation features , quite uncommon. The coming melt season will be exceedingly interesting.
Toggle Commented Feb 11, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Well Jim, As the Polar vortex shrinks in extent, there has been quite exciting action: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2020/02/spectacular-surface-cyclone-with-no.html Sure to fool the run of a mill fake skeptic, but otherwise I continue to observe unusual weather patterns, counterintuitive, deeply cold, mainly smaller zones, the biggest feature of this winter was Alaska being the good old cold Alaska. But this may mean a consolidation of the Polar Vortex into a more compact area, expressed in no better way than more sea ice extent with respect to recent previous years......
Toggle Commented Feb 1, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
A record shattering Cold Temperature North Pole vortice exists over Ellesmere Island at present. This is extremely interesting, remember the film "Day after Tomorrow" , it portrayed something similar, but very badly maimed the meteorology. A Cold center can usually thrive when weather is stable, the stability here is from enhanced Anthropogenic Warming. There was another failed theory, the "Iris Effect", by professor Lindzen at MIT. This theory called for heat to escape to space when Earth got too warm. https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2020/01/coldest-new-years-eve-cold-temperature.html The problem with the Iris effect theory, in terms in what is happening now, is the real current Iris is way too small, swallowed by a sea of warming. Thinner sea ice has also played a role here, it shifted the CTNP back Eastwards over the Archipelago, much apt to deep freeze easily.
Toggle Commented Jan 3, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
And so we now see what happens when the Arctic circulation pattern becomes freakish, record warming in many places of the world, a none white Christmas, with no immediate cooling in sight. How did this happen: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/12/christmas-2019-polar-vortex-shrinkage.html Look no further but in the Arctic, where record thin or no sea ice played and will play a role. The roller coaster temperature not-so-merry-go-round exists, not in Western Europe and North America at present, but does elsewhere. I guess I can tease the fake anti science sceptic's now; the calendar is not wrong, is warm hey? Try to remember if you can?
Toggle Commented Dec 30, 2019 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Robert, Being a staunch critic of PIOMAS at times, I can say it right so far this winter. There was a lot of open water at minima 2019, this created by-Polar Cold Temperature North Poles , extreme cold vortices hovering above each Northern continents. Being as such a CTNP may bring up warmth on one side of it, but cold much dryer air towards the Arctic ocean on the other, which has occurred for about a month or so. This years circulation by CTNP's positioning has rapidly covered the vast open water areas dramatically increasing ice volume particularly on the Pacific sector of the Pole. If you want to literally see a recent strong CTNP (a non rogue vortice) in action watch this: http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/12/pacific-air-meets-atlantic-cloudsover.html It does not mean the coming ice age, but the coming -way to the South-smaller but extremely cold rogue vortices, Southern people will be feeing like the coming ice age in populated areas, sort triggering brilliant people like President Trump to comment to millions about superbly ignorant climatology. All while forgetting how much warmer the overall winter has become, as they are fond in saying "in your neck of the woods" .
Toggle Commented Dec 22, 2019 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
The following article outlines the coming winter outlook for the Northern Hemisphere, it will be laced with rock and roll extreme warm/bottom freezing cold rogue vortices: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/12/warming-polar-vortex-makes-its-internal.html Amongst other geophysics, it also explains that 2007 and 2012 were great melt years by La-Nina's as opposed to 2016 and 19 El-Ninos. Far less clouds during Arctic summers can wipe out nearly all existing Arctic sea ice, especially in current sea ice precarious health, luckily, it seems La-Nina's have not rebounded likewise to post 1998, ironies never stop until the days all good chances run out.
Toggle Commented Dec 17, 2019 on PIOMAS November 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Oh in BC you can easily have 2 close to each other lakes, one sufficiently higher than the other for hydro power. So connect them with water pipeline , nothing new, in Roman times they were aqueducts. These 2 lakes may create a perpetually clean battery, with solar and wind power pumping water up, and B.C. hydro extracting steady power 24 hours a day with water coming down, a nearly forever energy loop. The lakes don't have to be huge, may be artificial, but eco friendly. We have had this solution since just after Nikola Tesla walked around Niagara Falls in the early 1900's. What are we waiting for?
Toggle Commented Dec 10, 2019 on PIOMAS November 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Robert Not if they are made with solar or wind power... :)
Toggle Commented Dec 10, 2019 on PIOMAS November 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Kevin The recent less Dissolved Oxygen in ocean bad news, top with increased ocean acidity, on top of other ongoing climate related disasters makes those who still insist that all is well with polluting, 'business as usual is great', makes them look like the most delusional people in history. Sort like just prior the end of the Roman empire, Romans praising the barbarian hordes as peace loving reformers without a bone of vengeance in their bodies. https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/12/significant-additional-cooling-after.html Ever felt a big chill right after a snow storm?? It isn't just the cold air causing it. Snow sublimation contributes to the cooling. It is sort of a cruel irony that people will tend to feel much colder after more frequent such storms because of the type of warmer snowflakes just fallen. It will not help to sway the fake skeptics about the origins of Global Warming one little bit....
Toggle Commented Dec 9, 2019 on PIOMAS November 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
rights of ...... opps :) is good to be back
Toggle Commented Nov 30, 2019 on PIOMAS November 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
There are lots of unusual gyrations from vortices within the struggling mangled Polar Vortex this fall: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/11/stretched-out-warmed-polar-vortex.html https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/11/arctic-resurrection-lows-passing-baffin.html A massive cloud clearing usually happens from Mid-October, not this autumn https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/11/november-clearance-not-sale-of-arctic.html Finally I have a bone to pick with Canadian professor out of his depth thanks to the fame he somehow acquired by battling the rights transvestites (sounds funny but is no joke). However this is an excellent opportunity to reintroduce basic sun energy facts and to warn others, who one day will have fame, not to let it go to their heads: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/11/a-little-word-on-solar-panels-not-quite.html Also a little word of praise to those like Neven with solar panels on their rooftops. They work even in Canada! I am so proud to say.
Toggle Commented Nov 30, 2019 on PIOMAS November 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Speaking 'bout images, 2019 is on a serious contention path to exceed 2012 super melt. As I wrote months ago, the dye was set during the winter just past: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/06/bye-bye-2012-record-course.html I give 70% likelyhood of 2012 being beaten and a commercial shipping lane near the North Pole to happen.
Toggle Commented Jun 9, 2019 on PIOMAS June 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Noticed your weather being a bit regular? Lots of rain in one place, a lot of sun in other locations? https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/06/stall-all-northern-hemisphere-systems.html The Arctic climate is important, as important as ENSO...
Toggle Commented Jun 5, 2019 on PIOMAS May 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Jim Yea there could be 2 types in the sub-Arctic, but Arctic summer cyclones give seldom surface warmer temperatures than adjoining anticyclones, for the mere reason that permafrost and sea ice double team on the extra clouds albedo factor, when cloudy the energy imbalance favors a cooling on the surface. As opposed to when there is an anticyclone with 24 hour sunlight. You have to spend a night in a tent in arctic summer to know that you need a very large cushion not to feel the cooling from below. In the upper air there can be warm cores, but the surface remains cooler.
Toggle Commented May 30, 2019 on PIOMAS May 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
By the way Jim I thanked you for one word correction on my web page latest article... nisi perfectum
Toggle Commented May 28, 2019 on PIOMAS May 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice