This is wayne's Typepad Profile.
Join Typepad and start following wayne's activity
Join Now!
Already a member? Sign In
wayne
Recent Activity
Speaking 'bout images, 2019 is on a serious contention path to exceed 2012 super melt. As I wrote months ago, the dye was set during the winter just past: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/06/bye-bye-2012-record-course.html I give 70% likelyhood of 2012 being beaten and a commercial shipping lane near the North Pole to happen.
Toggle Commented Jun 9, 2019 on PIOMAS June 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Noticed your weather being a bit regular? Lots of rain in one place, a lot of sun in other locations? https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/06/stall-all-northern-hemisphere-systems.html The Arctic climate is important, as important as ENSO...
Toggle Commented Jun 5, 2019 on PIOMAS May 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Jim Yea there could be 2 types in the sub-Arctic, but Arctic summer cyclones give seldom surface warmer temperatures than adjoining anticyclones, for the mere reason that permafrost and sea ice double team on the extra clouds albedo factor, when cloudy the energy imbalance favors a cooling on the surface. As opposed to when there is an anticyclone with 24 hour sunlight. You have to spend a night in a tent in arctic summer to know that you need a very large cushion not to feel the cooling from below. In the upper air there can be warm cores, but the surface remains cooler.
Toggle Commented May 30, 2019 on PIOMAS May 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
By the way Jim I thanked you for one word correction on my web page latest article... nisi perfectum
Toggle Commented May 28, 2019 on PIOMAS May 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Another That is the biggest highlight of 2019 to date, the incredible warming of Alaska region for months. Not for a few days, but since late last year. You'd think Alaskans would be loud about this.... There is definitely a consistent higher total precipitable water column, a warming by-product of course.
Toggle Commented May 28, 2019 on PIOMAS May 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Yes Jim It did come from somewhere , likely Alaska, but appeared to materialize spontaneously :) 2012 has something similar to 2019, albeit by the models which call for El-Nino to grow. 2012 had a small El-Nino which dissolved after mid July or so. My opinion agrees with yours, 2019 is worse than 12, so far. There has been substantial wet systems , ie precipitable water seems higher now a days....
Toggle Commented May 28, 2019 on PIOMAS May 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
The current apparent slowing of sea ice extent melt is a by-product of the advent of summer 3 weeks earlier than last year: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/05/early-switchover-warming-signal-slows.html What happens next is strictly a matter of Arctic solar penetration, which in turn depends on how much heat will widen the temperature dew point spread. If summer comes earlier, this spread has a very high chance of being large.
Toggle Commented May 26, 2019 on PIOMAS May 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
There has never been a climate like this in Arctic recorded history: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/05/unrecognizable-in-21-years-warming.html Imagine, only in 20 years or so, we are dealing with unfamiliar climatic features which affect all of us. Only if "all of us" can see and understand this will there be more success in averting even much worser changes.
Toggle Commented May 18, 2019 on PIOMAS April 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
2019 sea ice extent is remarkably dwindling fast despite the fact that current ENSO conditions are very different than el-Nino 2016: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/05/clouded-global-heat-transfers-from.html But 2018 is currently #1 lowest extent, despite having a winter La-Nina, even colder winter spring season than 2019. This means a dispersed heat throughout all oceans are compensating against the usual sea ice extent variations.
Toggle Commented May 14, 2019 on PIOMAS April 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks to TV weather presenters, many know, during winter what happens in the Arctic doesn't stay there. But do they know if it is similar to the summer season? What happens in the Arctic may make your back yard much hotter. https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/05/post-collapse-iii-flipping-summer.html The great Canadian Arctic Archipelago vortice demise has already given or has changed the temperature outlook.
Toggle Commented May 11, 2019 on PIOMAS April 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/05/post-collapse-circulation-model.html 2019 Arctic spring cold temperature north pole (CTNP) collapse has already shown some results, more warming further South than expected a mere day ago......
Toggle Commented May 6, 2019 on PIOMAS April 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Along with 2019 having again today the lowest sea ice extent in history, Arctic tropospheric temperatures are shooting upwards dramatically, suddenly, despite some early spring cooler anomalies: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/05/collapse-caa-cold-temperature-north.html Sudden wide region intense tropospheric warmings come more often in the Arctic. The current one is not forecasted to be short lived. Which is not at all what happened last year.
Toggle Commented May 4, 2019 on PIOMAS April 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi David Although I have personally witnessed a few Sudden Stratospheric Warming events, not often, none gave me a great impression at all.... https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/04/stratospheric-temperatures-ruler-is.html What influences stratospheric temps is ozone, and the stratosphere often does not influence tropospheric temps, the link above shows recent example.
Toggle Commented Apr 28, 2019 on PIOMAS April 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
There is data all over the place Robert..... Look at this: http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=96&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0 The bi-continental splitting in 2 of Polar Vortex is not done because sea ice is frozen hard and somehow warms the Upper Air... This occurs when heat from the sea is joining the rising steady in sky sun to warm the air above the sea ice breaking releasing heat Arctic Ocean. Mean time, I compare NOAA and ECMWF summer temperature projections vs EH2r https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/04/noaa-ecmwf-ai-vs-eh2r-long-range-summer.html The formers depend largely on ENSO, I use both Arctic Polar Vortex and ENSO, let's see who will be right? Last year AI's did not do too well.
Toggle Commented Apr 26, 2019 on PIOMAS April 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Another This is the time to remember, especially at sea ice extent minima. When it may not be at the same rank. It is hardly possible to have historical lowest extent at one period of the year, at any random date and not conclude that extent is at all time lowest, but spreads out by circulation reasons which does not necessarily explain its true condition.
Toggle Commented Apr 22, 2019 on PIOMAS April 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
The biggest story of this spring so is the cooling of the CAA surrounded by warming all over the place. In fact, as the sun rose higher since long night sunrise , the Archipelago's upper atmosphere got colder even to this day: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/04/2019-annual-end-of-spring-and-summer.html Confused? It is all explained in my annual projection of coming weather and temperatures for the Northern Hemisphere , with a special sea ice feature, which beat nearly all models in 2018. As some remember , they did not forecast all time hot summer for a great chunk of North America.......
Toggle Commented Apr 21, 2019 on PIOMAS April 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Is light effects caused by gravity induced thin atmospheric layers..... A similar physics outside the B.O. horizon event. Here on Earth, mainly unknown.
Toggle Commented Apr 15, 2019 on PIOMAS April 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Elise Hawkins described the event horizon light has been compressed in thin layers, same here. The light which escaped in the brighter "doughnut " has escaped extermination through a very long journey , The light seen in my pictures are from a long distance, not as long as trillions of miles, but hundreds of kilometers if not a little more. Similar in nature. There is no symmetry as another journey said....
Toggle Commented Apr 15, 2019 on PIOMAS April 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
It was a great day in science nevertheless, but imaging a black hole of M87 galaxy has nothing as exciting than filming similar effects on Polar Earth: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/04/arctic-sunset-like-none-other-prettier.html Keep in mind that very similar refraction optics captured in the Canadian High Arctic offer the tantalizing prospect that black holes event horizons may actually have some colors.
Toggle Commented Apr 11, 2019 on PIOMAS April 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
One conclusion is very simple gkoehler The over all sea ice mass is lesser than estimated. It is very difficult to rely solely on remote sensing and expecting accurate results. A greater effort in proof checking the satellite data is scarcely done.
Toggle Commented Apr 11, 2019 on PIOMAS April 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
That is an impressive Polarview picture Neven I see the thinner ice from last summers open water anomaly, keep in mind, newer sea ice can break more easily than old. The arch is rather jammed with with broken up first year and Nares didn't transport as much MYI as it use too, there was likely no ice jam causing it to freeze over....
Toggle Commented Apr 4, 2019 on PIOMAS April 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Was a little ahead of my time! Jim, Now why? Why is it hovering a lowest all time extent, is because it is thinning of course, but there is a feedback, the thinning gives a different atmospheric circulation, or as we say in these modern days, a different polar vortex shape: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/03/late-winter-2019-major-circulation.html Remember post 2012 greatest melt? The sea ice was very thin but 2013 minima was hailed as a recovery by the usual denial carbon loving maniacs, that was because circulation was changed by the sea ice. 2019 has a different circulation structure which favors a greatest melt again.
Toggle Commented Mar 31, 2019 on PIOMAS February 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
I stand corrected , thanks Jim Thought I read otherwise and did not go back enough I see 2nd place from 2017 by a mere 13K , on JAXA, and 3k more than 2006, essentially #1 lowest shared. Must be shocking to those calling for a recovery, the proper analysis may take more effort, I would really like see 3 meter ice extent data over years. I am sure this is more telling, the nature of analyzing sea ice is a bit more complex than ice or none. The proper overview is like at least 8d chess: winds, sst, mean surface temperatures, snow cover, momentum, currents, thickness intermix, albedo ...... But all sums up as thickness, this simplest interpretation is essential to measure.
Toggle Commented Mar 30, 2019 on PIOMAS February 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Today # 1 lowest extent again Jim No surprise at all, it was lingering about # 1 all the time (precluding thin new sea ice) , thinner sea ice doesn't take much to disappear. There is evidence of a strong favorable for further melting circulation to continue well onto July... Will have more about this soon. First sea ice horizon melt happened about the 20th and the Cold Temperature North Pole has been shrunk well different than preceding few seasons.
Toggle Commented Mar 30, 2019 on PIOMAS February 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Correct to posit Jim I see no evidence of recovery, just the same old confusion about sea ice, like comments precluding how much thin sea ice just formed, mixing +1.5 meter with less than 50 cm. Facts about this is simply amazing: https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/03/north-ellesmeregreenland-biggest-in.html Case in point, open water mixed with much older sea ice at previous minima date just did not got compressed but rather froze , remained much thinner than new sea ice plains, because surrounding older sea ice keeps under laying sea water warmer, a main component of accretion.
Toggle Commented Mar 20, 2019 on PIOMAS February 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice