This is wayne's Typepad Profile.
Join Typepad and start following wayne's activity
Join Now!
Already a member? Sign In
Recent Activity
Doc Snow I doubt that sea ice attracts a lot of world wide attention, primarily because very little known death and destruction comes out from it, sensational news worthy items it is not, might as well have ice melting on the moon. I never failed pointing out that no sea ice in a huge area around the Pole would attract some news, but then after the 2nd or 3rd summer this happens, pleasure yachts will be sailing small circles around the world in a few seconds, a new added tourism attraction cruise will surely arise. However, here is the twist, a different lesser in strength cryosphere changes world wide atmospheric circulations, ensuing death and destruction, of not only humans, but a multitude of living organisms. In the future these murder victims will be publicized with galore news channels transmissions, but the culprit will be left a mystery, at least for those who choose to burry their critical thinking.
Toggle Commented Aug 1, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Very correct Jim as usual, A more refined definition would be that the current circulation pattern is normal , while the long lasting June 30 steady anticyclone, just passed, exacerbated a massive exodus of sea ice towards Fram, while the current Gyre based Low pressure reverted the flow. Strong winds explain this as well: The 50K a day JAXA melt numbers are about to get bigger shortly.
Toggle Commented Jul 31, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Interesting in terms of the Geophysics yes, not enough for the fake skeptics in realizing that they were horribly wrong about AGW. It reminds me of current Covid pandemic, unless truly epic death and lifestyle changes happen, deniers doing nothing, business as usual types, sway and encourage some same ilk leaders to continue their tragic wrong ways. At any rate, current melting makes all but certain 2012 record shattered. You need look at how it happens nearly live, namely by the warmed open waters lethally engulfing sea ice:
Toggle Commented Jul 24, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
This current Arctic Ocean long lasting anticyclone has significantly accelerated this years all time liquefaction of sea ice. Turns out to be a twist in this story, thinner sea ice may be why this High is till present: Astounding images came through of sea ice melting nowhere near open sea water.
Toggle Commented Jul 19, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Current high speed melt pace is giving some specific fusion geometries not readily seen otherwise: The chances of 2012 still being all time lowest extent at minima, dwindle day by day.
Toggle Commented Jul 17, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
The North Pole was particularly veiled by clouds despite the long lasting Arctic Ocean High Pressure. Got a look at it now and it has no signs of pack ice due to compaction, but plenty lake ponds, the North Atlantic front has a lot of different ice melting dynamics as well.
Toggle Commented Jul 16, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
We can readily see the record speed of sea ice vanishing, particularly at the Atlantic front, especially when the clouds are thin and sea ice pans are hopelessly surrounded by warm open water:
Toggle Commented Jul 13, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Doc Snow, it is not speculation, you can see the clearer cleaner air practically every where on Earth, enjoy it while you can, bluer skies, "whiter sunsets" with not so red horizons at dusk, there are also tons of measurements about this.... Calamity! This is it for 2012 record, I confirm my April Projection, of less sea ice than 12, likely none at the Pole. The projection did not include this "warm" High ideally located with likely Russian origins amongst other reasons. Neven is doing good resting from too much work, twice the man when the break is over :)
Toggle Commented Jul 8, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
If there is any doubt about sorry state of Arctic sea ice, gaze how quickly the thickest sea ice got pushed away from Canadian Archipelago NW shore in less than 24 hours. Again further signals of current massive melting:
Toggle Commented Jun 29, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
The lesser degree of Covid-19 related worldwide industrial activity worked Earth's climate system two ways, one favouring lesser particulates hence a slow down in the snow melting process, secondly accelerating sea ice melt when most of the snow cleared: Here we have example of what a lot of snow does, it causes a false sense of sea ice consolidation, when in fact it created thinner sea ice between the thicker pans and so we see here the result, a very loose pack well past the Atlantic front, it does not look good for sea ice yet again.
Toggle Commented Jun 24, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Wow the North Pole is the Cold Temperature North Pole. Exactly like foreseen, also projected but not mentioned, it will be hot, everywhere but for a few places, like rainy Norway. How hot? if the CTNP is at the Pole nothing pretty much will drive weather to move far away from the Pole. Absent strong circulation currents gives yet another warmest year in history, with the expected by many GC models its nefarious effects. So when I project a High (in April) to be straight over North American Continent in June July, it will not move fast, with all the weather (or super heat) it will give. Mean time back at the exploration ranch, a surprise from Jupiter, always a fun place to wonder and wander about considering Earthly troubles: There is a suggestive visual link between sea ice melting patterns "Goodbye Waves" and Jupiter's upper atmosphere. Despite what Elon Musk thinks, we have a better chance living off the moons of Jupiter, I fancy Europa, than bombarded by constant deadly radiation. Imagine watching Jupiter masterpiece colours from your living room window :)
Toggle Commented Jun 15, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
I remember travelling on sea ice, quite a pleasant wonderful sensation, until thick snow masks the just frozen leads. A very dangerous scene. And so is the case for 2020, with sea ice seemingly melting at a significant rate, all while not seeing the thinner sea ice spots quite well. That is the key in judging the melting pace. Where are the leads? While we wait to see them more, land offers a different melting race, the snow cover vanish, of which 2020 is in the "lead" , funny how this sounds:
Toggle Commented Jun 5, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
I guarantee it wont be so quiet soon, there are many geophysical features combining to make 2020 seriously challenge 2012 minima extent. One is lots of snow, an illusion giver, who knows if instruments depict correct sea ice thickness when there is a lot of snow? With greater snow cover the sea ice is naturally thinner. 2 is general circulation, quite different than last year, mainly driven by a rapidly shrinking Polar Vortex. How dissimilar? Arctic 25 May had warmest density weighted atmosphere since 2012, despite the albedo cooling plenty of snow cover. There is also something which has contributed to the sea ice ice overall being thinner, it must be the upper Arctic Ocean temperature column. So expect in coming days a rapid disintegration of sea ice extent, that's when the snow carpet finally mostly sublimates, lifts the illusion and announces the visual onset of the strong melt season.
Toggle Commented May 26, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Cleaner Atmosphere + likely biggest N.H. Ozone Hole in recorded history + Polar Vortex center settling over the North Pole = Super summer melt Here I log its beginning: Not that cleaner air is bad, but as a matter of coincidence, a pristine atmosphere at middle of summer, after years, decades of polluted particulate air spells further doom, might not have been so if the economies grinded to a halt last September.
Toggle Commented May 13, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
The #1 event in the High Arctic at present is the adiabatic nature of upper air profiles, numerous, very early on the season. The other is the JAXA map North Atlantic melting pattern, very similar to my hand sketch seen here: This is the first part of annual projection to read first done before JAXA colours.
Toggle Commented May 1, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Jim, My methods will be orthodox or standard when someone else practices them :) Speaking of my strongest technique requiring a lot of work, the refraction of the vertical sun disk, if I had an alarm bell, I would ring it very loud now. The sun disks are expanding fast, as I write this, in the West - Northwest sector from center of Arctic archipelago. Never observed likewise since 2003 and thousands of such observations, this sector usually had glacial cold atmosphere since it is from a just risen and low High Arctic sun . At any rate predictions are finally all done for the record: my predictions over the years were quite good about everything except sea ice extent, but hurray I was right last year.... I might be getting a hold of it. One must read this one first: before going into details.
Toggle Commented Apr 27, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
I have corrected the software glitch: more details are slowly coming out:
Toggle Commented Apr 24, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
2 months passed already, with multiple daily observations at crucial late winter period, giving this first report: This projection foresees a departure in general circulations. It does not look good for sea ice again, the data was observed during extreme events. IN addition, consider the lessening of pollution world wide a time to contemplate the truer colours of sunsets as well. You might be shocked. But lesser particulate pollution means more sea ice melting and warmer temperatures where you live, another shock in the making. More finer data on the next report by week end.
Toggle Commented Apr 21, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
The likely lowest extent in history of the lower in altitude Arctic Polar Vortex has been occurring this winter: Some similarities with 2012 pattern has been noted. The colder surface temperatures within the CTNP's are quite interesting as well, , again part of a newer climate surfacing.
Toggle Commented Mar 13, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Love your Graphs Jim, however there is a missing one, inspired by a well known paper , it is safe to say that loss of sea ice thickness releases more energy from the Arctic Ocean. Let's say as an example 7 million square kilometers new ice compared to pre 80's, giving heat from a conservative estimate, say 10 watt/m2 extra heat in the atmosphere, 70,000 Gigawatts , all this straight to the lower atmosphere loaded with extra green house gases. This missing graph would represent the precise calculation of energy from the sea ice surface as it was and as it is now. No small graph. Such a display would illuminate the very reasoning of which I surmised a shrinking Polar Vortex.
Toggle Commented Feb 25, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Jim and Shalom to Judah Yes not surprising on the thinness, it is locally much thinner despite prolonged cloud free skies in what was total darkness. Now I need to have a clearer picture of the nature of CTNP size and strength, it will take 2 months. Sorry about the coming rain!
Toggle Commented Feb 22, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Have you ever heard of the "8 Omicron" midwinter Polar Vortex pattern? It exists, take a look: The 8 pattern is not happening in 2020 , making predicting coming weather much easier, unfortunately for rain soaked places throughout the Northern Hemisphere, it does not look any dryer at all. Only here on a website dedicated to Arctic sea ice will you read such discoveries, because they stem from studying sea ice.
Toggle Commented Feb 21, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
"There hasn’t been much in the way of cold air intrusions into mid latitudes or warm air intrusions into the Arctic." Hear hear Jim That is because the Polar Vortex was an is smaller, not only because sea ice over all morphology is mainly thinner, but all oceans sst's , except the Pacific equator being particularly warmer. But 2019-20 winter keeps on distancing itself from preceding 8 or 9 winters. In terms of circulation: different.html With unfamiliar circulation features , quite uncommon. The coming melt season will be exceedingly interesting.
Toggle Commented Feb 11, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Well Jim, As the Polar vortex shrinks in extent, there has been quite exciting action: Sure to fool the run of a mill fake skeptic, but otherwise I continue to observe unusual weather patterns, counterintuitive, deeply cold, mainly smaller zones, the biggest feature of this winter was Alaska being the good old cold Alaska. But this may mean a consolidation of the Polar Vortex into a more compact area, expressed in no better way than more sea ice extent with respect to recent previous years......
Toggle Commented Feb 1, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
A record shattering Cold Temperature North Pole vortice exists over Ellesmere Island at present. This is extremely interesting, remember the film "Day after Tomorrow" , it portrayed something similar, but very badly maimed the meteorology. A Cold center can usually thrive when weather is stable, the stability here is from enhanced Anthropogenic Warming. There was another failed theory, the "Iris Effect", by professor Lindzen at MIT. This theory called for heat to escape to space when Earth got too warm. The problem with the Iris effect theory, in terms in what is happening now, is the real current Iris is way too small, swallowed by a sea of warming. Thinner sea ice has also played a role here, it shifted the CTNP back Eastwards over the Archipelago, much apt to deep freeze easily.
Toggle Commented Jan 3, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice