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Scott
Saint Paul
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Wouldn't a data point that's 8 SD below the mean actually be a 16 sigma event? If it's a normal distribution, the odds of seeing an occurrence 8 below should be the same of seeing one that's 8 above, for a total of 16 sigma.
I'm not a science guy, but I use statistics to model demand for capacity in medical facilities, and a lot of patient arrival and demand is described pretty well by a normal distribution. Every demand curve I've built for inpatient beds and emergency beds is almost always a normal distribution (the range of census levels is contained within +/- 3 SD from the mean). In 20 years, I've never seen a hospital that had a range of 8 SD, and that includes some really small hospitals (which have bigger swings).
Also, if I'm not mistaken, that's why the management tool 6 sigma is called 6 sigma. Every event would be expected to fall within + or - 3 sigma from the mean, for a total range of 6.
So, if we are off by 8, that's actually a 16 sigma event, which is even scarier than an 8. It's like an amplifier that goes to 11, but even more insane.
The 11th Key Science Moment of 2016
Regular readers of the Arctic Sea Ice Blog will be aware that Neven has, not entirely successfully, been "on sabbatical" for a while. During that time assorted inaccuracies about Neven himself and about the state of sea ice in the Arctic have been propagating through both "social" and "mainstrea...
Neven,
Thank you so much for what you have done. Your even-keel and thoughtfulness have always set you and your blog apart, and are very much appreciated.
Good luck with the house, educational efforts, and at achieving the balance you are looking for.
Best wishes,
Scott
Sabbatical (I hope)
I've alluded to it a couple of times already, but I'm really going to take a break from blogging, as I have been struggling with an Arctic burn-out since 2012. On the one hand it's caused by everything that has been and still is going on in the Arctic. The learning curve, the excitement, but mo...
Welcome back, Neven. You've been missed.
Interesting times up north, indeed. Jim Pettit's graphs also just updated, with the Sea Ice Area maximum/minimum bar chart a fascinating read, as well as the line graph that overlays past years' melt as if they started at today's extent.
If this year continues as 2012 did, we set a huge record, but nowhere near ice free...about 2MM square kms remain. If melting proceeds from here at the pace it did in 2007, we also set a new record, but not by much. No other year generates a record.
That said, there's a lot of warmth projected over the next week, and a lot of dark water (more than ever before at this early date) absorbing the now prevalent sunlight.
Thank you again for providing us with this amazing set of resources.
Beaufort final update
This isn't a final update as such, because I will certainly be mentioning events in the Beaufort Sea in upcoming ASI updates. But it is the last in a series of blog posts I have written (one, two and three) about this unprecedented event that started over 6 weeks ago and has led to a heavily cra...
And the day after Robert Scribbler's post went up, the University of Bremen map looks like something straight out of June. Huge cracks in green and blue are everywhere, apparent melt north and east of Svalbard, Nares Strait has a huge pool of open water, Hudson's Bay is opening up, the CAA has pockets of melt and open water. Amazing. I know that map can shift day by day, but many of these features have been visible for several days now. I fear we are in for an interesting summer.
Cryosat-2 confirms: sea ice volume is low
Last month I made a comparison of CryoSat-2 sea ice volume distribution maps for the 2015/2016 Winter analysis, but it was off because the dates didn't exactly match. Better images have emerged during this year's General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (more on that later this week): ...
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Apr 19, 2016
Neven, here in Minnesota we have a saying that is of little value and always applicable: It could be worse. At least it wasn't a sewer line that broke. Good luck with the cleanup.
PIOMAS January 2016
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: As of December 31st total sea ice volume, as modeled by PIOMAS, is still lower than it was in pre-201...
Re: Explosive growth
If you look at the map, it all comes pretty clear what happened. That obviously can't be right.
PIOMAS August 2015
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: As I wrote last month: It all depends on the weather in the coming weeks, of course, but according t...
Gergyl,
We have seen a similar change here in Minnesota. March has historically been our snowiest month. Now it's January. The theory is that January has warmed enough to now allow for bigger storms (warmer air holding more water vapor) while March has warmed so much that a lot of its snow is now falling as rain.
Early record, late record
10 days ago I posted a blog post called Mad max. The title - referring to a very early maximum sea ice extent - ended with a question mark, because it was far from sure whether the preliminary max reached on February 15th would remain standing. This is because of the oscillatory nature of the f...
A-Team,
I'm confused by the ice surface temperature information in your last post. How can the ice surface temperature be 12.8 or 15.9 degrees C? Is that Farenheit? Or am I missing something.
I wish my first comment was a little more enlightening, but as a somewhat mathematically and scientifically literate lay-citizen, I figure I'm better off reading and asking simple questions than opening my mouth further and removing all doubt as to my ignorance.
Thank you, Neven for this blog. I appreciate what you and everyone else here does.
Perception of the Arctic
There was a time, not too long ago, when I didn't know the Arctic existed. Sure, I knew there was a North Pole and that it was cold there, but somehow I always thought that the Arctic and the Antarctic were the same thing, that someone had forgotten to add the Ant-. And of course, polar bears ...
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Mar 23, 2013
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