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Hans Gunnstaddar
Always look to the data
Interests: walking, talking, thinking, pondering, conjecture
Recent Activity
I understand, DK. That said, you have been very close two consecutive seasons, at least by my standards. Good luck on adjustments to the formula.
Toggle Commented Aug 31, 2018 on PIOMAS August 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Before June, RD, you were asked what your prediction was for the 2018 melt season and you replied you would have the necessary information for that prediction in early June. On 6/6, your prediction was 4.84, then after some posts by Wayne you adjusted it down to 4.5. Then in July you raised it to 5.19. If your formula has the necessary inputs to determine a prediction in early June, then that's your prediction and it remains at 4.5.
Toggle Commented Aug 30, 2018 on PIOMAS August 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Ok, accepted, and now we will see what August has in store, as today is Aug. 1st. I have no prediction this year, just fascinated by the unfolding situation.
Well, Wayne, We'll have to agree to disagree. Warm air pouring in over the Arctic as Scribbler describes would have a contributing effect on sea ice melt. How could it not? Also, warm air over the ESAS might have had a contributing effect but not as noticeable as what happened recently in the Beaufort.
Yes, Wayne, I'm sure other factors as you describe helped contribute to that melt event. One thing worth noting from the video is at 1:24, freeze that frame and you can see the anomalously warm waters of the Pacific feeding right into the middle of the above normal heat band on the Western coast of North America. The ocean feeds the hot weather, ending up contributing to melt in the Arctic.
R. Scribbler has a new YouTube video linked below, attributing the recent Arctic melt to above normal temps along Western North America, including East Alaska, Beaufort coast. Looks like a whole lot of ice in the Beaufort ready to liquefy. Those melt day numbers you linked, Wayne for those recent days in July are huge! Your early June prediction of this year's extent being similar to 2012 is much more likely now. You could be right, but more weeks ahead to see how it turns out. I have to admit, I'm getting a bit concerned. Record high temps in many areas of the NH and now Arctic melt speeding up this fast in July after a slow start. Seems like warming is now capable of shifting into higher gears.
Toggle Commented Jul 26, 2018 on PIOMAS July 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice The following day's extent graph does show it dropped a little closer to 2012.
Toggle Commented Jul 14, 2018 on PIOMAS June 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice Black & white Bremen link shows some black (ready to melt) areas in Baffin Bay, where Arctic ice meets the Atlantic, and big areas in Kara & Chukchi side of ESAS. Black areas building recently, so we could see a move by extent graph closer to 2012 in the next few days.
Toggle Commented Jul 13, 2018 on PIOMAS June 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice Wayne, 'Extreme Heat Event in Northern Siberia and the coastal Arctic Ocean This Week' By Meteorologist Nick Humphrey on July 2, 2018 "This isn’t typically what I would write about in this blog, as I typically cover threatening ocean storms. However, this has implications for the Arctic Ocean and possibly mid-latitude weather. An extreme heat event for this particular region…with high temperatures of greater than 40 degrees F above recent normals…will impact the coast of the Arctic Ocean (specifically the Laptev Sea and Eastern Siberian Sea) Wednesday-Friday. This will generate maximum daily temperatures as high as 90-95 degrees near the open ocean coast!" "I’ve looked over the European model and there appears to be general agreement over the intensity and timing of this extreme event. It is absolutely incredible and really one of the most intense (forecasted) heat events I’ve ever seen for so far north." Should be interesting to see how this plays out.
Toggle Commented Jul 3, 2018 on PIOMAS June 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
At say 4.9 a prediction of 5.4 is off by 1/2 a million square kilometers and that's keeping in mind it was a prediction for the average of Sept., which is much more forgiving than a prediction of the minimum, whatever date in September that happens to land on. Let's say we're determining if a prediction is accurate by way of using the Sept. average, but since that is more forgiving, let's say the range of accuracy needs to be within .25 million square kilometers, then .5 is double that standard and thus inaccurate.
Toggle Commented Sep 20, 2017 on PIOMAS September 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
"Rob Dekkers pred is for Sep NSIDC right?" I don't recall. My post was in reference to discussions Rob and I had early in the melt season, particularly as it pertained to the comment 'happy medium' - an inside joke he would get. That's why I put lol, as in let's have a laugh over it. (Disclaimer:) But that isn't to say the topic of what is happening in the Arctic is laughable, on the contrary it is very serious.
Toggle Commented Sep 20, 2017 on PIOMAS September 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Best, latest minimum extent estimate from that link is 4.47 which is close to 1 million less than the vaunted Rob Dekker's prediction (5.4), but 2 million above mine, so looks like you get the nod, Rob, but still in the 'happy medium' - lol.
Toggle Commented Sep 18, 2017 on PIOMAS September 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice Ok, I found that YouTube Video by Jennifer Hynes (distinctive voice) and part of it is on Mantle methane. Take a look first at 1:08:40 which shows a methane emissions chart with high levels of emissions from the Laptev Sea (from earthquakes occurring along the Gekkal Ridge, resulting from increased seismic activity from isostatic rebound of Greenland from less mass holding it down). Watch it from there if you like or you can jump to 1:11:35 and see a red dot she's pointing to on a map where there have been high levels of methane emissions from the Gekkal Ridge. That spot appears to line up well with the polynya in question (from earlier posts).
Hi Rob, yes, saw that first in the link Jim provided and also in your link. That certainly is possible. Would be nice to go to that location and do some on site research to try and confirm, but haven't got access to a research vessel - lol. By the way, congrats on your more accurate prediction of this years melt vis a vis above average snowfall. CAB ice held on Pacific side much better than I expected with how fast it was declining earlier. Wonder if the repeating 5 year cycle would have hit a new low if there had been average snowfall. This is all good though because it dodges a bullet or as you put it a possible cannonball with how low volume had gotten during winter. More time to deploy more renewables.
"A case could be made that 2012 and perhaps 2013 had a persistent polynya in a fairly similar place to 2017's. However there's little support for the polynya occurring every year, which restricts the space of possible explanations." How about seismic activity along the Ridge is not constant, but instead random. Coincidentally the polynya just happens to be located directly above the Gekkal Ridge? I think this is one to keep an eye on. There is a woman with a very distinctive voice (but I can't recall her name) who did a YouTube Vid on GW, and I can't find it now, but she suggested mantle methane was rising along the Gekkal Ridge and had a map showing the location and it is the same location as the polynya. I'm going to keep trying to find it. Ok, everybody ignored my mantle methane, Gekkal Ridge theory about a round open water area. Well, it's still there. Look at the above link and then enlarge the view (control +) and you'll see it's about as round as could be expected considering that area is surrounded by high concentration ice. If it isn't methane bubbling up opening that part of the ice or clathrate methane, remaining in that exact same location week after week, then what is causing it? This is about the arctic so hopefully on topic enough, although not directly related to the guest post. Indulge me for a moment for an interesting observation. If you look at the above link you'll notice a round wide open expanse of water along the Gakkel Ridge, in an area of ice concentration that is otherwise at much higher concentrations. In a YouTube Video I saw a while back there was mention and a map showing a spot along the Gakkel Ridge that has in recent years supposedly been emitting mantle methane, and I think it coincides with that open water location. My question is this; Once the seasonal melt reaches a certain point in which the ice has been weakened, could rising methane bubbles push away the ice to form a round shaped open area? I ask in part because that same round area has been there for a few weeks now. Below is a map showing the Gakkel Ridge.
Interesting thread, thanks Jim. 'First tanker crosses northern sea route without ice breaker' The specially-built ship completed the crossing in just six-and-a-half days setting a new record, according to the tanker's Russian owners. "The 300-metre-long Sovcomflot ship, the Christophe de Margerie, was carrying gas from Norway to South Korea. Rising Arctic temperatures are boosting commercial shipping across this route."
"Would be interesting to see August 2012 or even Aug 2016 version to get sense of how much changes in last month of melt season." I agree, gkoehler. Looking at current conditions would be much more informative and comparative if there were past year examples for that same date/period of time, in my opinion particularly with ice concentrations. Comparative views are often done in updates but would be even better if available on a daily basis. I sometimes see something that looks unusual from memory of previous melt seasons but have no way of knowing for certain if it is. But maybe we just don't know where to seek out that information?
Toggle Commented Aug 17, 2017 on PIOMAS August 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Several months ago there was a discussion as to what was causing CO2 numbers out of Hawaii to increase to ~3 ppm added per annum vs. the usual 2.2 average. Below is a link with info. answering that question: "Record rates of atmospheric CO2 accumulation during 2015 and 2016 correspond with large belches of carbon from tropical forests as a result of severe heat. Elsewhere, this added burst of carbon did not go unnoticed. And measurements from NOAA’s Earth Systems Research Laboratory indicates that rates of atmospheric carbon accumulation sped up as El Nino and global warming based heat baked the tropical lands. During 2015, rates of atmospheric carbon accumulation accelerated to their fastest pace on record — growing at 3.03 parts per million per year. And in 2016, the second fastest rate of atmospheric CO2 accumulation on record was recorded — 2.98 parts per million per year. This compares to an average 2.2 parts per million annual accumulation that’s primarily driven by fossil fuel burning."
Toggle Commented Aug 14, 2017 on PIOMAS August 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Neil T & Hans G: "Notice anything about the periodicity with which the humps seem to appear?" Yes, the undulating 5 year repeating cycle and with the 4th year, 2016, being as low as it was, I figured a new record low extent for this melt season, 2017. At present 2012 is lower and dropped quite a bit during August/Sept., so starting to look like it might not set a new record extent low, but it's not done yet as 2 meter waves and storms will make their mark.
Toggle Commented Aug 5, 2017 on PIOMAS July 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Should be interesting to see the effect of those waves - thanks for the link, Jim.
Toggle Commented Aug 5, 2017 on PIOMAS July 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice,73.64,443 Take a look at: 1) the area of wind circulation out in the orange color coded area of the Pacific with a wind speed of 64 km/h & temp. of 27.2C that then feeds into; 2) an area of circulation in the Bering Sea (close to the Chukchi), with wind speeds up to 30 km/h at 8.2C feeding; 3) directly across the CAB, and into another area of circulation right above the north pole, with wind speed up to 28 km/h with a temp. of 0.0C. Temp. in those 3 locations goes from 27.2C to 8.2C to 0.0C.
Toggle Commented Aug 4, 2017 on PIOMAS July 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice