Just a comment on solar panels.Here in New Zealand we do not have a subsidised system so I produce a bit more than I use, to pay for the grid and it balances out with me paying just a few dollars for the year. Best investment I have made.. In speculating about the final extent fot the season, Will the El Nino arrive early enough to affect the total extent?

Jennifer Francis puts up a very convincing argument concerning the lack of ice affecting the jet stream and I am convinced she is right. However this science was not on the horizon five years ago and it makes me wonder what else could be about to happen that we not know about. Even after this dreadful period,when we were hoping that the jet stream would release its hold and move on it would appear that it is returning. Could it become a semi permanent feature? It would be devastating if it was.

Of all the outcomes from climate change the loss of Arctic ice would be the fastest. Lose the ice and get the results that autumn. No hanging around for fifty years waiting for Greenland to melt. Lose the ice, get a drought, or a flood. Serious disruption to farming and food production in the Northern hemisphere.

Of all the climate change problems the loss of Arctic sea ice is the most immediate and the resulting changes to northern hemisphere weather is instantaneous. Three years ago this whole set of research was unknown and the sea ice was an academic problem. If the weather changes dramatically it will disrupt food production and be disastrous for this crowded part of the World.

Its too late in the summer for any obvious spectacular outcome this season but the chewed up ice will still be there. Next season these patches will be like first year ice. This problem has not gone away and the ice is very unstable. The flood of fresh water coming from Siberia will probably freeze quickly but what is it going to do to the Gulf Stream. It's a complicated and many faceted system.

Could someone please explain why a cyclone makes the Arctic colder. I associate cylcones with low pressure warm air.

Kate. I don't want to be unkind to Australians who are nice people but the fact is 70% of newspapers are Murdoch owned and the TV is either Murdoch or Packer. I spent some time in Queensland and could see the resources being taken from the ground and exported. This is what gives Australians there high standard of living and I believe they are the richest people in the World if you count the benefits for ALL the people. People don't understand that with a carbon tax it is not a case of pay up and keep burning. It is only an interim stage before we stop burning it all together. And that's what Australia and the USA have not grasped and will have to face up to. Probably in the next thirty years.

I have just been to Australia which is heavily committed to coal both for export and consumption. The Murdoch owned press has blamed the carbon tax on the decline in the countries income and so both parties are committed to cancelling it. Australia is probably one of the most vulnerable countries in the World when it comes to climate change but they have a good life selling coal and are unwilling to face the truth.

A well deserved article. Yours is one of the clearest and well presented web sites on the Arctic and a canary in the cage for climate change. I hope the popularity does not attract the wrong type of contributor.

I hope you don't mind me repeating myself but I worry that the loss of Arctic sea ice could be the first fast acting tipping point that could have serious affects to our weather.If we had a quick (quicker) break up of the Arctic ice, say down to 1 mill sq Km in five years it would seriously hamper food production in the North.

The melting of the Polar ice and the changes it brings to the jet stream and the weather in Europe, Russia, China and the USA are, I believe, potentially the the fastest and most threatening tipping point there is. If the ice goes the weather is affected the same autumn and this leads to crop failure. My cousins are farmers in the UK and they are having a tough time now and it has hardly started, I live in NZ now and we are affected less than most countries but we are not immune. http://www.climateoutcome.kiwi.nz/

The chart that worries me to most is the sea ice. It worries me because it could represent a tipping point and change the weather in the Northern hemisphere within ten years. If the ice extent drops to one million square kilometres we may as well call it ice free. We are already seeing big changes to the weather and the dramatic ice melt is only a few years old. We don't need to wait forty years for the CO2 lag the heat and the weather from the ice loss are within months. The other one, that is not shown is NASA's sea level rise for the last two years. Ten mm a year and not slowing.