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vukcevic
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Mr. Reynolds We are all entitled to our opinions, expressed privately or publicly. As far as peer review publishing is concerned, I have no such ambitions, or even illusions. My aim is to make others aware of minor but real ‘points of contention’, that may conflict with whatever happens to be ‘applauded’ at the time.
Re animation: A-Team : It looks 'explosive' because of this 324,000-fold time compression…… It looks to me however like the event has a natural central track of development (see below) that is more of a rhumb line than a meridian (except for penultimate frames where it bends northwesterly)…. Good points SSW coincides with Tolbachik, Kamchatka’s volcano eruption during December 2012
Here are important points to consider: - NOAA SSW animation: http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSW2012-13.gif - Total absence of SSW in the Antarctica since 1978 : http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/10mb6590.gif - Volcanic distribution of live volcanoes above 55 degrees of latitude in both hemisphere http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/maps/world.png In a way of reply to: Kevin O'Neill I analysed 6 events in 6 resent years, all show coincidence between Kamchatka eruptions and the SSWs, there were two more since. Presenting 100% correlation on 6-7 events it is not going to give any enhanced credibility to the hypothesis. Btw, it is not a paper as a such, it is a set of observations meant to be a prompt for a further research to those inclined to do so. Greenland ice deposits (volcanic ash and dust) do not fall down from stratosphere, they are deposited by precipitation from clouds at a much lower altitude http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SatelliteLoop/hinpole_None_anim.gif R. Gates: It is not intention to ‘rain on your parade’, but it appears to me that you have knowledge and scientific skill (that I do not have), which if channelled in a proper direction could make significant contribution to science. Chris Reynolds: As you may be well aware ‘windmills’ literal or verbose are currently all the rage. Forgive me, but I can’t recall your name, even less when you ‘dealt with Vukcevic’, but I will take your word for it, unless you are Chris Colose (Chris Colose evaluated this http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET1690-1960.htm as good as counting the cows of Idaho) http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/04/unforced-variations-april-2012/ Good luck to you all.
I have voiced contrary opinion to Mr Simpson’s finding’s elsewhere, I would only repeat following: There are strong indications that the north hemisphere's SSW is initiated by volcanic eruptions in Kamchatka peninsula. It is likely that after the volcanic eruption’s dome of warm air punctures the tropopause opening a ‘plug hole’ into the stratosphere, which then may let large volume of the warm Pacific air to pour into the stratosphere. Mr Simpson cherry picks his animations by choosing 10hPa altitude, by which time SSW origin is lost; however lower altitude e.g. 50hPa clearly show location of the initial burst, as shown by this copy of a NOAA’s animation. http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSW2012-13.gif with more details here http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NH.htm Mr Simpson states: Small and infrequent SSW's do occur over the south pole, but, as you'll see, there are precise reasons why they are mainly a Northern Hemisphere phenomenon, displaying yet one more reason why the planet is biased toward the advection of energy toward the North Pole versus the South Pole (but more on this later). Not exactly correct: Since 1979 or. 33 years of satellite age data, not a single SSW is recorded in the south hemisphere, see max trace at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/10mb6590.gif One obvious reason is that Mt Erebus volcano would have to erupt strongly in the Jun-September period, but it has not done so. Hypothesis is no good if it is valid only 50% of the time. p.s. past events: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/56/34/77/PDF/SSW.pdf
Neven Idea for your Gravatar http://poljoprivredaiselo.com/2010/08/neven-dekorativan-i-ljekovit/
Toggle Commented Sep 9, 2012 on Minimum open thread at Arctic Sea Ice
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Sep 9, 2012