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Gerg
Brissy
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Buoy 300234062785480 air temperature: http://gergs.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Buoy_300234062785480.png
Temperatures were close to zero back in November, but that's not midwinter!
North Pole temperature anomaly (big)
Forum member jdallen started speculating about it on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum a few days ago, Robertscribbler then posted a blog about it two days ago, and this was followed by a piece on the Washington Post website yesterday, and today it's mentioned in a Slate article about all the crazy weat...
The volumes that Wipneus obtained from the CS-2 data team are plotted here:
http://gergs.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/PIOMAS1.png
Pretty close, except mid-winter. Details here:
http://gergs.net/2013/07/northern-sea-ice-update/piomas2/
CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness maps
Yesterday at one of the EGU 2015 poster sessions I had a short chat with Tommasso Parrinello, the ESA's CryoSat-2 mission manager. He told me lots of useful improvements have been made in the past couple of months, and if all goes well the satellite can remain operational up to 2020 (no guarant...
Volume: tks Wipneus; method?
CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness maps
Yesterday at one of the EGU 2015 poster sessions I had a short chat with Tommasso Parrinello, the ESA's CryoSat-2 mission manager. He told me lots of useful improvements have been made in the past couple of months, and if all goes well the satellite can remain operational up to 2020 (no guarant...
"This result could not be produced by random factors."
Not quite. The sample size is just one election. You're postulating that, for the first few groups on the ballot, those nearer to the left edge get a progressively higher vote on iVote than in the general count. Effectively you're suggesting that, for the first few positions, there's a trend in the difference between iVote and the general vote depending on the group position. That's indeed how it looks: http://gergs.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/iVote.png
If we said that the trend extends out to 6 groups so that it gets down to zero somewhere between groups E and F, then it actually looks to be statistically significant (p ~ 2%). But -- and it's a big but -- that would be serious cherry picking; there'd be lots of other "single sample" anomalies that might have drawn our attention here, but aren't considered in such a significance estimate.
Even if the trend were just as postulated (6 groups long including the zero at the end), the probability of seeing a trend that big by chance alone is about 1 in 50, if the underlying process ("i-voting") contained no trend difference at all.
There'd be better ways of estimating the probability of seeing something like what you've highlighted, but they would need additional data. Maybe you know someone who could have a proper go at it ... or maybe we just wait for a few more "samples".
COMMENT: The nice trend line on your graph is invalid as you miss two-thirds of the ballot paper columns. I also included the Labor, Liberal/National and Green data as we have long experience of knowing these parties have differences by vote type, yet you've included these parties in the trend line and I don't think they should be there.
You are better to use groups where there is little variation by vote type. It is fascinating to compare groups D and H, groups with minimal support. D has an iVote surge but H doesn't.
When I tried iVote there were 6 columns displayed on the screen, A to F, which I think help explains the finding that the effect drops after 6 columns.
Maybe there is a 1 in 50 chance of this being produced randomly, but no one will take the risk again. There's enough in this one example to suggest electronic ballot papers should be presented to voters in a different manner.
If you really wanted to test the statistical probability. the solution is to use more data points. Compare iVote by electorate and see if the pattern is consistent. Compare the iVote support for a low polling party with its support by poling place across the state.
Does Electronic Voting Increase the Donkey Vote?
While security fears always get a regular airing in debates about electronic voting, another question that has so far escaped attention is whether electronic voting itself can change who people vote for. We have known for decades that the structure of paper ballots has an impact on the way peopl...
Nnnnevin ... more n's than any other network, or at least more northern nous: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9GZuT3HN6Y
The Ns are calling the maximum
Here's a quick update on everything related to our good friend Max. In the past couple of days organisations like the NSIDC, NASA and NOAA have announced the annual event of the Arctic sea ice pack reaching its largest size at the end of the freezing season. This has been picked up widely by the...
Plotted above of course (with nice star field), but it's perhaps worth remembering what late summer Antarctic sea ice actually looks like (from ClimateReanalyzer.org):
http://pamola.um.maine.edu/DailySummary/frames/GFS-025deg/DailySummary/GFS-025deg_NH-SAT5_SEAICE-SNOW.png
That is that there's hardly any ice at all except in the lee of the Peninsular. The source of the variability is pretty obvious, and the likely source of the increase in variability is not hard to glean.
Shock news!
There is no shocking news, really. I'm just emulating a way of news reporting as seen in recent months by folks trying to play down the long-term shocking news of Arctic sea ice loss. You know, paid climate science disinformers like Benny Peiser who claimed that the poles aren't melting, twisti...
The August 1922 DNI sea ice chart is here:
http://brunnur.vedur.is/pub/trausti/Iskort/Jpg/1922/1922_08.jpg
...and in context here:
http://gergs.net/2013/07/more-northern-sea-ice/1920-1939/
The red sea ice markings north of Spitsbergen might even be Hoel's assuming the Norwegians and Danes shared data. The marks indicate clear water extending to about 81.5°N, as do other markings immediately to the east. There was no satellite, and air survey is not likely, so these records are probably from close ship survey.
Ever sailed to 85N?
Despite this being the second melting season that rebounds from the spectacular sea ice loss event of 2012, there have been some notable events that characterize this melting season. We may have already become used to these events, but may do well to remember that they were much rarer before 20...
Thanks; here's yet another (very slightly different) view: http://gergs.net/2013/07/northern-sea-ice-update/
PIOMAS July 2013
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: The slow start of this year's melting season has had a dramatic effect on sea ice volume. After goin...
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