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Bosbas
New Jersey
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In Physics Today (Oct 2013), a nice summary:
"The Arctic shifts to a new normal"
by Martin O. Jeffries, James E. Overland, and Donald K. Perovich
http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/PT.3.2147
Pinpointing the minimum
UPDATE September 16th: Given another uptick and the current weather forecast, I'm ready to call the minimum for IJIS SIE V1 on September 12th at 5,000,313 km2. Apparently the high was too big and the pressure gradient too low to prolong things (see below). --- This blog post should perhaps ha...
@Allen,
"if we quickly stop using fossil fuels we will back away from the tipping point and things will return to say 1950 regimes."
When we stop the emission tomorrow, the current trends in sea level rise and temperature change are going to continue for probably a couple of decades, just to respond to the current 400ppm CO2 level (and I am not mentioning the temp rise due to the change in aerosols when we stop emitting them).
The CO2 concentration was around 310 in 1950; it is my understanding that it will take very long (>100s of years?) for nature to get us back there.
Second storm
There's another storm brewing in the Arctic, the second this year after PAC-2013, the persistent Arctic cyclone that stayed in place for weeks on end and caused the first half of the melting season to be very slow. And also the second storm after last year's Great Arctic Cyclone, the iconic im...
The IJIS graph hasn't been updated the last 2 days. Hopefully tomorrow they catch up.
PIOMAS June 2013
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: After starting the year as the lowest on record, the 2013 trend line is now 425 and 901 km3 above th...
"Growth systems with significant delays in their feedback loops are virtually guaranteed to collapse."
Help me understand this better - how can it be determined whether the feedback loops are slow; compared to what?
The Four Charts That Really Matter
Guest post by R. Gates Recently on Judith Curry's blog, a guest post was submitted by DocMartyn which was a rather nicely (from a math perspective) done extrapolation of past tropospheric temperature trends and cycles out to 2040 and beyond. It was essentially a nice job of, as he put it, "gra...
2.2 m km2 sept avg
Larry, great initiative;
The whole arctic seems to me to be unstable, transitioning to a new state, so and such it seems possible that we get a new minimum this year.
I find it difficult to estimate the rate of re-freeze; it tends to be high in recent years.
@Erimaassa - could you check the math? My calculations show 26% - not 0.026%
Crowd-Source Prediction of Minimum Arctic Sea Ice
How does the collective wisdom of Arctic Sea Ice blog participants compare with expert scientific analysis in forecasting the September sea ice extent? This question seems worth exploring with a crowd-source experiment. You are all invited to submit, as comments to this post, your best guess for...
My thoughts went to Jim's "impossible hamster" when I read the message from our CEO that we "only experienced single digit revenue growth in Q1 - these are challenges we must overcome".
A new round of vids
I have all these tabs open in my browser with videos about Arctic sea ice. At a certain point my browser wil crash and I lose all those tabs, so it might be best to just post them here in case you haven't seen one of them. I'll kick off with the latest vid on Peter Sinclair's Climatecrocks blog:...
Andy, so it is you we hear playing the piano? That shows many talents!
Ice cube volume video
Andy Lee Robinson fired up his super computer to produce the video below, and during rendering composed the soundtrack to go with it: I think it's his best one so far.
Lodger,
Thanks for explaining the Daisyworld. I was completely lost when I stumbled on that term.
PIOMAS April 2013 - extra update
The Polar Science Center has released some extra PIOMAS gridded data that allows smart bunnies like Wipneus and Chris Reynolds to show how ice thickness is distributed around the Arctic. Here's a thickness distribution map made by Wipneus that shows the difference between March 2012 and March th...
Talking about ENSO, reminds of what happened last year:
“This is one of the most challenging outlooks we’ve produced in recent years because El Niño decided not to show up as expected,” said CPC deputy director Michael Halpert
I wonder if they have an explanation for this?
The cracks of dawn
I was hesitating whether I should write about this (besides my personal combination of busy/lazy) for a couple of days, because the Arctic is such an amazing place that it's easy to get carried away. When you see something for the first time, it's tempting to go: "Oh my Gawd, that haz got to b...
I read this recently:
As 21st century technology strains to become ever faster, cleaner and cheaper, an invention from more than 200 years ago keeps holding it back. It's why electric cars aren't clogging the roads and why Boeing's new ultra-efficient 787 Dreamliners aren't flying high.
We need to leapfrog the engineering of making of batteries
Open Thread February 2013
The previous open thread has gotten full enough, so here's a new one. We might want to kick off with this animation made by commenter A-Team: His comment: Don't miss this -- it's happening right now, by the hour -- so head on over to 80N 150W. A huge fracture has been opening a bit east of B...
Espen wrote (Feb 11):
Lots of crushed sea ice North of Nares Strait (Kennedy / North West Greeenland), it seems to develop hour by hour:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/kennedy.php
... and it seems to me to be still developing. Is this a normal process this time of year?
PIOMAS February 2013
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: The good news is that the 2013 trend line is showing an uptick. The difference with 2012 and 2011 i...
Very nice Andy! Thanks for sharing.
CryoSat-2 reveals major Arctic sea-ice loss
We knew that observations by the CryoSat-2 satellite were by and large confirming the modeled data from the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center, because of the recent publication in GRL of Laxon et al.'s CryoSat-2 estimates of Arctic sea i...
Yesterday I watched on NASA TV “Science Uncut: Arctic on the Edge?". I took away from it that things are changing in the arctic, and that we can expect a seasonal ice free arctic in the summer around 2100. To me, that all seems pretty far away, considering the changes in the arctic we saw in the last couple of years. Is there a disconnect between scientists and reality, or did I misunderstand the message?
Open Thread February 2013
The previous open thread has gotten full enough, so here's a new one. We might want to kick off with this animation made by commenter A-Team: His comment: Don't miss this -- it's happening right now, by the hour -- so head on over to 80N 150W. A huge fracture has been opening a bit east of B...
@Bob
"micro-solar systems installed at a rate of over 1,000 per day."
And the world population growth is about 200,000 per day.
That makes it a really big effort.
2013 Open thread #1
I was planning on writing posts more regularly, but reality forbids. So here's an open thread for all of your off-topic banter. source: Space Daily Will be back next week when I get an Internet connection in our new apartment. There's plenty to write about: that science report, the lower albe...
Buddy - "another year or two of record setting melting on Greenland" ... I doubt something that is happening far from home that is not felt directly will trigger a change; only an empty supermarket at home, or a major river running dry close to home or anything else that is widely felt can cause a change in behavior - and only after the fact. There is no better driver in promoting fuel efficient cars then an increased price of fuel - warning of higher fuel prices just doesn't do the trick.
The real AR5 bombshell
The whole fake skeptic propaganda effort disguised as 'leak' is boring me to death, but of course it's interesting to have a sneak peek preview of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and see what they will have to say about Arctic sea ice. Geoff Beacon from the Brussels Blog already had a g...
@Paddy, Crandles
This is caused by the way these numbers are calculated. In one of the other threads out here is an in depth explanation. It is basically caused by the 15% threshold - if a grid cell has >15% of ice, the cell is considered to be 100% of ice. If that block is for 6 days (>15% of the month) filled with >15% of ice, then for the month, it counts as 100% ice. Suppose that block of ice floats from grid cell to grid cell, that single block of ice can make 5 grid cells count as 100% ice for the monthly figure. The daily figure would show 1 grid cell of 100% of ice during each day of the month.
Bas.
Record dominoes 13: CT global SIA maximum
I doubt this is the end of the record streak, but as we approach the end of the year, this will probably be the final record domino of 2012. And what a fitting number to end it with! The record fell over three weeks ago (see data). The reason I'm reporting it now is not just because I'm lazy o...
Protege - thanks for explaining that sentence "September ice volume was about 800 km3 less than the prior minimum on September 10 2011 though this difference is within the estimated uncertainty of PIOMAS." I have always been in doubt about what "this difference" would refer to. Could you suggest a better way to put it?
PIOMAS October 2012 (minimum)
We already knew a few weeks ago that the PIOMAS sea ice volume record had been broken, but with the latest data release by the Polar Science Center at the University of Washington we now know the minimum sea ice volume for 2012, as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation...
As for the El Nino - La Nina cycle, is it expected this cycle to stay stable (and unchanged from the past) with all the changes we are seeing right now?
ASI 2012 update 11: end or beginning?
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) and Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2011 period (NSIDC has...
Talking about some of the consequences - one that I never thought of at least:
http://en-maktoob.news.yahoo.com/fish-shrink-global-warming-leaves-them-gasping-oxygen-170000778--sector.html
ASI 2012 update 11: end or beginning?
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) and Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2011 period (NSIDC has...
Neven, thank you for maintaining this wonderful site. It really inspires. As for the dot you added for 2012; it seems it points at 2015; shouldn't it be moved further to the left?
Models are improving, but can they catch up?
All models are wrong, but some are useful, as the saying goes. However, when looking at how Arctic sea ice decline is modeled, one might be tempted to say that all sayings are useful, but some are wrong. To be fair, I should be the last person taking a piss at climate models. Hundreds of brill...
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