Neven, looking at the animation in your first comment, It looks like the franz joseph land islands could soon be surrounded by open waters if the current pattern holds, ant the sun is rising after four months of darkness, amazing and scary.

3.45. I had bet 3.25 before, but i believe the slow start will limit the loss of extent. This would still be a record, i believe the late season melt will be strong. I do not think the area (cryosphere today) will break a record, i predict it will be tide or slightly more than last year.

3.25 million sq km. I believe the current rate of melting is around 5% of the originally measured 1980 - 2000 extent and coverage, so an addition 350,000 sq - km should melt this year. the season started late, but there is so much melt ponding from the pole to the euro-russian side, and it appears east siberia is melting fast now from a strong heat wave. we will see open seas closer to the pole than ever before, and it may reach the pole from above svalbard.

2.9 million sqkm. loss rate appears to be around 5% of the original 7million sq km, each year, since 2005. It could be higher with increased solar absorbtion as more ice is lost. This assumes a normal weather pattern like recent years, no outliers like 2007.

The arctic oscillation is in an extremely strong negetive phase, exceeding -5 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html This is the second strongest reading recorded in march, in dr. Master's blog, http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2370 I wonder what the record strongest arctic oscillation is. Arctic temperatures have responded by warming to an extremely high level for this time of year, http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php The freezin' season is likely over, a future of greater extremes and catastrophes awaits. Those of us who live on the US east coast should pray we do not see a strong negetive AOI like this in september, if a major hurricane gets involved it will be our doom. It may be a matter of time.