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Neven, looking at the animation in your first comment, It looks like the franz joseph land islands could soon be surrounded by open waters if the current pattern holds, ant the sun is rising after four months of darkness, amazing and scary.
Decreasing Arctic albedo boosts global warming
A new paper in PNAS, called Observational determination of albedo caused by vanishing sea ice, reminds me of scientific work Peter Wadhams published a year and a half ago wherein he showed Arctic ice melt is 'like adding 20 years of CO2 emissions'. He based this assertion on calculations, as ca...
3.45. I had bet 3.25 before, but i believe the slow start will limit the loss of extent. This would still be a record, i believe the late season melt will be strong. I do not think the area (cryosphere today) will break a record, i predict it will be tide or slightly more than last year.
Crowd-Source Prediction of September Sea Ice Extent (July report & call for August predictions)
In mid-June through early July, participants on the Arctic Sea Ice (ASI) blog posted 82 individual predictions for the mean NSIDC September Arctic sea ice extent. The median value of these 82 predictions was 3.2 million km2, with an interquartile range (approximately the middle 50% of prediction...
3.25 million sq km. I believe the current rate of melting is around 5% of the originally measured 1980 - 2000 extent and coverage, so an addition 350,000 sq - km should melt this year. the season started late, but there is so much melt ponding from the pole to the euro-russian side, and it appears east siberia is melting fast now from a strong heat wave. we will see open seas closer to the pole than ever before, and it may reach the pole from above svalbard.
Crowd-Source Prediction of Mean September Sea Ice Extent (July update)
Each June, July and August, the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) collects predictions for the mean extent of Arctic sea ice in September. These predictions come mainly from scientists but also some other people, drawing on a variety of modeling, statistical or subjective methods that each contributo...
2.9 million sqkm. loss rate appears to be around 5% of the original 7million sq km, each year, since 2005. It could be higher with increased solar absorbtion as more ice is lost. This assumes a normal weather pattern like recent years, no outliers like 2007.
Crowd-Source Prediction of Minimum Arctic Sea Ice
How does the collective wisdom of Arctic Sea Ice blog participants compare with expert scientific analysis in forecasting the September sea ice extent? This question seems worth exploring with a crowd-source experiment. You are all invited to submit, as comments to this post, your best guess for...
The arctic oscillation is in an extremely strong negetive phase, exceeding -5
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html
This is the second strongest reading recorded in march, in dr. Master's blog,
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2370
I wonder what the record strongest arctic oscillation is. Arctic temperatures have responded by warming to an extremely high level for this time of year,
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
The freezin' season is likely over, a future of greater extremes and catastrophes awaits. Those of us who live on the US east coast should pray we do not see a strong negetive AOI like this in september, if a major hurricane gets involved it will be our doom. It may be a matter of time.
Max reached (?)
Cryosphere Today sea ice area and IJIS sea ice extent numbers are now so much below the peaks reached so far that it looks like the ice pack has reached its maximum size and will now start to get smaller as we transition from freezing season to melting season. Mind you, I called the max CT SIA t...
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