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I think it's important to include these graphs by Wipneus:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/basin-extent-multiprod.png
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/basin-area-multiprod.png
As you said, Baffin and Hudson have still almost 400k of ice that WILL melt out, so we should concentrate on extent and area in the basin.
ASI 2015 update 5: late momentum
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2014 period (NSIDC has...
when would the linear trend line hit zero?
PIOMAS January 2014
Another month/year has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Whereas last month 2013 volume had crept somewhat closer to top low years 2010, 2011 and 2012, t...
3.75... up from 3.0!
I still think that we will see another cliff soon!
Crowd-Source Prediction of September Sea Ice Extent (July report & call for August predictions)
In mid-June through early July, participants on the Arctic Sea Ice (ASI) blog posted 82 individual predictions for the mean NSIDC September Arctic sea ice extent. The median value of these 82 predictions was 3.2 million km2, with an interquartile range (approximately the middle 50% of prediction...
Andy Lee, something for you:
http://io9.com/130-years-of-global-temperature-data-converted-to-musi-634152387
Climate artsy ;-)
PIOMAS July 2013
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: The slow start of this year's melting season has had a dramatic effect on sea ice volume. After goin...
Maybe the start wasn't slow at all, maybe it was too fast in the beginning- Correct me if I'm wrong, but melting started at the and of March and in April extent and area both were below 2012 and we saw some century area-breaks in April.
As poster "ktonine" suggested at the forum ( https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,92.msg8689.html#msg8689 ) , maybe the unusually coolness came from the cracking event.
And perhaps the dispersion of little ice floes fooled the satellites.
We will see soon how things work out - if 2013 would beat 2012, we will have to discuss this further.
So, how slow was this start?
It's half time in the Arctic, and with the Summer Solstice and the first half of the melting season behind us, it's time for an assessment. It's clear that PAC-2013, this year's persistent Arctic cyclone, kept the Arctic in a cold and cloudy grip, causing a very slow start to the melting seaso...
Extent drop, Area up?!
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html
ASI 2013 update 3: the Arctic goes POP
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has ...
Is it still possible to revise one's prediction?
I'm considering to revise my prediction up from 3.0 to 4.0...
Things seem to go slow... but on the other hand, all could change pretty quick.
Temperatures seem to be lower, than they ever have been on that record: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Does anyone have an explanation for that?
Crowd-Source Prediction of Mean September Sea Ice Extent (July update)
Each June, July and August, the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) collects predictions for the mean extent of Arctic sea ice in September. These predictions come mainly from scientists but also some other people, drawing on a variety of modeling, statistical or subjective methods that each contributo...
PS: @ solar insolation.
Yes, extent is higher, but not that much, and when you look closely on MODIS, worlview, you see lots of little gaps or tiny holes, that probably won't all be recorded in the data...
Crowd-Source Prediction of Mean September Sea Ice Extent (July update)
Each June, July and August, the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) collects predictions for the mean extent of Arctic sea ice in September. These predictions come mainly from scientists but also some other people, drawing on a variety of modeling, statistical or subjective methods that each contributo...
I will go with 3.0 million square km.
In my opinion we have seen the weak ice conditions with the fragmentation event and early area loss in April, but cold weather "used" these events in favor of the ice, so there was a small recovery and the actual melt was delayed a bit.
So overall, we have now a little more ice than in the years before, but the ice is (in my opinion) in a weaker condition.
Yes, melt was ahead in several regions in 2012, but when you look at the ice thickness and make a day-to-day comparison, you see that we had more MYI in 2012 and we certainly didn't have (and never had before) such a little thickness so close to the pole).
Actually, now that I look at it, it's just Beaufort and Kara where we had significantly more ice last year at this day.
So if weather doesn't stay that unusually cold (i think it was the coldest melt season start ever on record), we will catch up to 2012 and probably have a new record.
Crowd-Source Prediction of Mean September Sea Ice Extent (July update)
Each June, July and August, the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) collects predictions for the mean extent of Arctic sea ice in September. These predictions come mainly from scientists but also some other people, drawing on a variety of modeling, statistical or subjective methods that each contributo...
Remember when everyone was excited about the cracks and predicted severe melting?
Now the start is a bit slow, so what?
It can change within days.
Temperatures are finally back to positive anomalies, let's see how this will change the current situation.
And... of course, PIOMAS will hopefully show us soon, what was really going on these last weeks.
ASI 2013 update 1: a slow start
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has ...
http://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?map=-2641440,-1669504,2355680,2647680&products=baselayers.MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor~overlays.arctic_coastlines&time=2013-04-17T12:00:00&switch=arctic
I think the whole arctic is pretty cracked - some parts are already refrozen, but everywhere new cracking is developing.
Perception of the Arctic
There was a time, not too long ago, when I didn't know the Arctic existed. Sure, I knew there was a North Pole and that it was cold there, but somehow I always thought that the Arctic and the Antarctic were the same thing, that someone had forgotten to add the Ant-. And of course, polar bears ...
Huge extent drop (200k):
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
2011 extent comes into reach.
On the move
When A-Team is not improving masterpiece paintings, he makes great animations. Here's yet another one, showing the speed with which the cracked ice pack in the Beaufort Sea has been moving in past weeks: The largest crack functions as a reference point. In the Arctic Sea Ice Forum I jokingly ...
Well I would definitely hang up some High-Res Pictures made by you or A-Team on my wall - I would pay for them or take them for free ;-)
Anyway they would be great to raise awareness of the ice melt!
Arctic freezing season ends with a loud crack
This is a guest blog I wrote for Climate Progress and Skeptical Science. You may use it as a new open thread to discuss the cracking event. I will try and do a more detailed winter analysis in April, if Allah and time permit. --- The sea ice cap on top of the Arctic Ocean is often imagined to ...
I propose a picture-thread so everyone can share these to raise awareness of the ice melt (or crack ;-))
Or you could sell them at http://www.redbubble.com/ and spend the money or support this blog.
Arctic freezing season ends with a loud crack
This is a guest blog I wrote for Climate Progress and Skeptical Science. You may use it as a new open thread to discuss the cracking event. I will try and do a more detailed winter analysis in April, if Allah and time permit. --- The sea ice cap on top of the Arctic Ocean is often imagined to ...
Well, denialists are cheering: Winter is back in Europe.
Neven, I hope your projection is right, in Vienna it is expected to stay cool for some days ;-)
Back to the topic - Any new cool animations or satellite pics of cracking ice?
Arctic freezing season ends with a loud crack
This is a guest blog I wrote for Climate Progress and Skeptical Science. You may use it as a new open thread to discuss the cracking event. I will try and do a more detailed winter analysis in April, if Allah and time permit. --- The sea ice cap on top of the Arctic Ocean is often imagined to ...
Latest anomalies...
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_01a.fnl.gif
Looking for winter weirdness 5
From WattsUpWithThat (via Pierre Gosselin and Marc Morano): Increased evaporation combined with more heat loss in the Arctic due to a record low amount of Arctic sea ice is the likely cause. The likely cause of this: This graph is made and updated by the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab. Th...
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