I think it's important to include these graphs by Wipneus: https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/basin-extent-multiprod.png https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/basin-area-multiprod.png As you said, Baffin and Hudson have still almost 400k of ice that WILL melt out, so we should concentrate on extent and area in the basin.

when would the linear trend line hit zero?

3.75... up from 3.0! I still think that we will see another cliff soon!

Andy Lee, something for you: http://io9.com/130-years-of-global-temperature-data-converted-to-musi-634152387 Climate artsy ;-)

Maybe the start wasn't slow at all, maybe it was too fast in the beginning- Correct me if I'm wrong, but melting started at the and of March and in April extent and area both were below 2012 and we saw some century area-breaks in April. As poster "ktonine" suggested at the forum ( https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,92.msg8689.html#msg8689 ) , maybe the unusually coolness came from the cracking event. And perhaps the dispersion of little ice floes fooled the satellites. We will see soon how things work out - if 2013 would beat 2012, we will have to discuss this further.

Extent drop, Area up?! http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

Is it still possible to revise one's prediction? I'm considering to revise my prediction up from 3.0 to 4.0... Things seem to go slow... but on the other hand, all could change pretty quick. Temperatures seem to be lower, than they ever have been on that record: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php Does anyone have an explanation for that?

PS: @ solar insolation. Yes, extent is higher, but not that much, and when you look closely on MODIS, worlview, you see lots of little gaps or tiny holes, that probably won't all be recorded in the data...

I will go with 3.0 million square km. In my opinion we have seen the weak ice conditions with the fragmentation event and early area loss in April, but cold weather "used" these events in favor of the ice, so there was a small recovery and the actual melt was delayed a bit. So overall, we have now a little more ice than in the years before, but the ice is (in my opinion) in a weaker condition. Yes, melt was ahead in several regions in 2012, but when you look at the ice thickness and make a day-to-day comparison, you see that we had more MYI in 2012 and we certainly didn't have (and never had before) such a little thickness so close to the pole). Actually, now that I look at it, it's just Beaufort and Kara where we had significantly more ice last year at this day. So if weather doesn't stay that unusually cold (i think it was the coldest melt season start ever on record), we will catch up to 2012 and probably have a new record.

Remember when everyone was excited about the cracks and predicted severe melting? Now the start is a bit slow, so what? It can change within days. Temperatures are finally back to positive anomalies, let's see how this will change the current situation. And... of course, PIOMAS will hopefully show us soon, what was really going on these last weeks.

http://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?map=-2641440,-1669504,2355680,2647680&products=baselayers.MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor~overlays.arctic_coastlines&time=2013-04-17T12:00:00&switch=arctic I think the whole arctic is pretty cracked - some parts are already refrozen, but everywhere new cracking is developing.

Huge extent drop (200k): http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm 2011 extent comes into reach.

Well I would definitely hang up some High-Res Pictures made by you or A-Team on my wall - I would pay for them or take them for free ;-) Anyway they would be great to raise awareness of the ice melt!

I propose a picture-thread so everyone can share these to raise awareness of the ice melt (or crack ;-)) Or you could sell them at http://www.redbubble.com/ and spend the money or support this blog.

Well, denialists are cheering: Winter is back in Europe. Neven, I hope your projection is right, in Vienna it is expected to stay cool for some days ;-) Back to the topic - Any new cool animations or satellite pics of cracking ice?

Latest anomalies... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_01a.fnl.gif