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wayne...
"...the Pack is much more solid towards Greenland and CAA where a High is suppose to settle soon."
If a persistent high were to set up over Greenland and the CAA, we could be in trouble. Atlantic waters are anomalously warm and any ice transported through the Fram or into the Barents east of Svalbard will melt quickly. I still feel this is the key to the final totals for this melt season.
ASI 2016 update 3: crunch time
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Because of issues with data based on the SSMIS sensor aboard DMSP satellites, I mainly focus on higher-resolution AMSR2 data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA...
"I always have an early season panic.
But unlike others I tend not to get manic.
But to be fair.
I have to declare.
I conceded the chance of a summer titanic."
Very nice but the meter is off to be a proper limerick.
2016 melting momentum, part 1
Melting momentum, it's what I call the absorption of heat and solar radiation during May and June that does not directly lead to melt and a reduction in ice cover, but rather comes into play during July and August (I had a more wordy explanation last year). As important as it seems to be for th...
With SST on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, this area has become a killing zone for ice. SLP in this area has been relatively high with sunshine so these anomalies will not be going away as open water heats up. What effect will this have on the minimums? It depends on ice mobility. Right now, not much ice is moving through the Fram.
2016 melting momentum, part 1
Melting momentum, it's what I call the absorption of heat and solar radiation during May and June that does not directly lead to melt and a reduction in ice cover, but rather comes into play during July and August (I had a more wordy explanation last year). As important as it seems to be for th...
The Rediculously Resilient Ridge has been a persistent anomaly for the past several years, weakening and then restrengthening. It has been causing very warm Alaskan winters and periodic intrusions of warm air into the Arctic. It has also been a significant cause of the drought on the coast which has now spread north into Canada. I fear that this phenomena will be with us from now on as a result of the loss of Arctic sea ice. I hope I am wrong.
ASI 2015 update 3: what's it going to be?
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2014 period (NSIDC has...
Kris wrote:
"Remember, Larsen B split into pieces in about 24 h time, but that had nothing to do at all with melt ponds."
I have to disagree. When those large melt ponds drain they slice through the shelf to the sea underneath, compromising the strength of the shelf. These melt ponds had been forming and draining for a number of years prior to the abrupt collapse and the shelf was covered with melt ponds when it collapsed. The melt ponds and draining had to have contributed to the shelf collapse.
ASI 2015 update 3: what's it going to be?
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2014 period (NSIDC has...
One final comment.....
From the poster sessions, it would seem that the scientific community is rapidly establishing links between Arctic sea ice loss and dramatic changes in northern hemisphere weather. This is a tremendous development as the scientific community will now be able to communicate the sometimes horrific effects to the world community which can only build a consensus that....
SOMETHING MUST BE DONE!!!!!!!
EGU 2015, my first scientific conference
I've been living in Austria for 5 years now, living a mere 2 hour drive from Vienna, but somehow I've never come around to visiting the European Geophysical Union's annual general assembly. This year I've decided to make that drive to the Austria Center Vienna and attend EGU 2015, a decision m...
Also, a suggestion....
When you report back, it would be wonderful if you could initiate discussions on the ASIF on topics you feel this community would benefit from and contribute to. I would prefer this as opposed to you having to take on the monumental task of reporting on this amazing list of topics. It would be easier, I think, for you to introduce the topics with a short take-away and links.
EGU 2015, my first scientific conference
I've been living in Austria for 5 years now, living a mere 2 hour drive from Vienna, but somehow I've never come around to visiting the European Geophysical Union's annual general assembly. This year I've decided to make that drive to the Austria Center Vienna and attend EGU 2015, a decision m...
Congrats on being recognized by the EGU press team. It certainly is a statement on how this blog is seen in the ongoing discussion of AGW.
Also, many of the poster sessions sound like the discussions we have here and on the ASIF. You are doing the world a service.
EGU 2015, my first scientific conference
I've been living in Austria for 5 years now, living a mere 2 hour drive from Vienna, but somehow I've never come around to visiting the European Geophysical Union's annual general assembly. This year I've decided to make that drive to the Austria Center Vienna and attend EGU 2015, a decision m...
And I am certain this shocking increase in summer variability is directly related to AGW. Any ideas as to why this is happening?
Shock news!
There is no shocking news, really. I'm just emulating a way of news reporting as seen in recent months by folks trying to play down the long-term shocking news of Arctic sea ice loss. You know, paid climate science disinformers like Benny Peiser who claimed that the poles aren't melting, twisti...
If these additional ads have an impact on the variable interface proximity of dual extrapolation vectors, I'm out of here
Fan Mail
Much like the Beatles, or the Dickies, I rarely read fan mail. The reason for this is that I'm extraordinarily lazy and also, in certain regards, kind of a dick. I'm terrible with thank-you notes, for instance; also, the reason WF has never had any advertising is that I could never be arsed. Thi...
If we do want to gain some sense of what the emerging landscape will look like, we should start by looking at existing areas that are adjacent and/or just south of areas that are currently permanent permafrost.
I would imagine that an area of continuous permafrost that is transforming into discontinuous permafrost will begin to resemble these ecosytems. While fauna can migrate quite quickly to colonize adjacent areas, flora can't just pick up and move. Since the fauna will be constrained by the slow pace of flora migration, there will likely be large areas of damaged ecosystems that will take decades, perhaps hundreds of years, for an effective transition.
I actually believe that we will be forced to engage in efforts of large scale terra forming as we work to effect a quick transition to this transformed landscape. This will look like seeding the emerging landscape with the appropriate flora to allow it to colonize the altered landscape more rapidly.
ASI 2014 update 5: low times
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
RNL
"Wonder what things will be like when we reach 1.5C?"
Bad.
ASI 2014 update 5: low times
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
LRC
"the ecosystems in the north are very fragile and damaging that has huge ripple effects on what happens potentially to ice and snow. It would also make it harder for new flora and fauna to establish itself."
The northern ecosytems are fragile but the earth has a remarkable way of quickly reclaiming an altered landscape. Leave a large parking surface untended and in just a few years you will have bushes and trees growing through it.
New flora and fauna will quickly establish in this dramatically altered landscape. I just don't know what the succession would be. It certainly will not look like the existing ecosystem.
ASI 2014 update 5: low times
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
And a damn good theory at that.
Those Big Words Which Make Us So Unhappy
Well gosh. I guess I am a liberal what hates... I mean, according to Science. Michelle Obama took some heat in 2008 for saying that, "for the first time in my adult life I am proud of my country..." As it turns out, that sentiment isn't all that unusual on the far left of American politics. Ac...
Interesting read.....two comments.
Having an ice free Arctic as the trigger seems unnecessary. Any disaster scenario I can imagine would not differentiate between ice free and nearly ice free.
Second, as I was reading and enjoying the short story, it occurred to me that there are an endless number of ways that this could play out, limited only by our imagination, our ability to think about the unthinkable.
The day the ice cap died
The title of this blog post is actually the title of a piece of science fiction, a short story written by Paul Briggs. Just like a couple of weeks ago when I was asked for advice on an idea for a novel, Paul asked me for some feedback on his short story. I figured posting it here, will generate...
Also....if you do take this rather obscure discussion to the Arctic Sea Ice Forum, please find an appropriate thread to hold the discussion. I visit there daily as well and this discussion would not belong on a thread that is discussing the 2014 melt season or some of the excellent threads set up discussing the Antarctic. The good news is there are literally hundreds of discussions on the Forum. I am sure there is one that would be appropriate. If not, you can create one.
Greenland 2013 in review
Here's a re-post of the NSIDC's Greenland Ice Sheet Today website, but let me also draw attention to this wonderful new resource, Polar Portal, set up by various Danish scientific research organisations. It has various maps and graphs depicting the situation on Greenland, but also the rest of th...
Hmmmm....quick string of comments regarding ship movements and nuclear testing as a cause of global cooling mid-20th century. While interesting as a Forum topic, this is way off topic for this thread. You should take this discussion to the forum so I don't have to skip these comments in order to get at the relevant ones that help me understand Greenland melt.
Greenland 2013 in review
Here's a re-post of the NSIDC's Greenland Ice Sheet Today website, but let me also draw attention to this wonderful new resource, Polar Portal, set up by various Danish scientific research organisations. It has various maps and graphs depicting the situation on Greenland, but also the rest of th...
One of these big things which I believe is related to this topic is.....
What happens as a cold pole forms over Greenland 6 to 9 months out of the year? I think this is already emerging and impacting us as NH snow and Arctic sea ice melts more rapidly. How will this impact the polar jet stream if at all? What about Greenland melt? Is this a positive or negative feedback?
Greenland 2013 in review
Here's a re-post of the NSIDC's Greenland Ice Sheet Today website, but let me also draw attention to this wonderful new resource, Polar Portal, set up by various Danish scientific research organisations. It has various maps and graphs depicting the situation on Greenland, but also the rest of th...
I have been enjoying your links to Transformational Climate Change....
...but I fear it is a lot worse than this...
"Very few people understand what it is to live in a 3 degree, 4 degree, 5 degree world and that needs to change!
My biggest fear is that none of us actually know what it is to live in such a world. While some have a better idea than others, as temps rise, we are all going to be shocked!
I think Sam, above, has the idea. There are very big things, poorly understood. Sam has listed two. There are bound to be others.
Greenland 2013 in review
Here's a re-post of the NSIDC's Greenland Ice Sheet Today website, but let me also draw attention to this wonderful new resource, Polar Portal, set up by various Danish scientific research organisations. It has various maps and graphs depicting the situation on Greenland, but also the rest of th...
Boa05att.....
Nature Paper: Half Of Arctic Warming Due To Pacific
http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/nature-paper-half-of-arctic-warming-due-to-pacific-variations.html
This statement in their paper and their conclusion that 50% of Arctic Warming is due to Pacific tropical warming seems contradictory.
"It remains to be seen to what extent the Pacific temperatures may themselves be responding to human effects on the climate system, they report."
PIOMAS May 2014
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: On the PIOMAS website the following is written: The 2014 ice volume reached its annual maximum in Ap...
Well, I've got an Obamacare story for you.
Five years ago, I contracted a life threatening illness that eventually cost me my job and access to employee offered health insurance. I recovered but because I had had several bouts of melanoma prior to this, I simply could not afford a break in my health coverage and I was shoved into the private insurance market.
With the ACA in place, I was able to get a plan through BCBS. The coverage is much better and I am saving $3800 per year in premiums.
That Republican shit won't stick for any of the 14 million people who now have health insurance, nor will it stick for all the family and friends of those 14 million who are now relieved that the people they care for are covered.
Oh, and if you want to alienate a large block of voters, tell them you are going to take their health insurance away.
Paul Krugman: Inventing a Failure
Surprise! Republicans are opposed to Obamacare. But the lengths they'll go to to validate their beliefs in the face of evidence to the contrary is startling: Inventing a Failure, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: On Thursday, House Republicans released a deliberately misleading report on ...
I'd also like to congratulate you for the well deserved recognition.
It makes me feel important just cause I hang out here a bit.
Forecast me not
Tomorrow, April 1st, I'll be doing a short presentation on the Sea Ice Prediction Workshop that will be webcast by UCAR. I'll be talking 10-15 minutes about the ASIB, ASIG and ASIF, and about increasing public interest in Arctic sea ice. You can view the webcast here. --- It was always clear ho...
NeilBlanchard
So, it appears that we have just seen the peak area of Arctic ice.
And rather late, too.
That late peak in SIE sure is disturbing but I am even more concerned by the late peak in SIA.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png
Both, combined, would suggest their is some fairly fragile ice that could melt out rapidly. The ice just hasn't had enough time to strengthen.
PIOMAS March 2014
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: During the month of February the gap between this year and the other years from the post-2010 period ...
AWH....
I've read this presentation before. It was linked over on the ASIF. If the difference in temperature drives this bifurcated switch to a single cell, it would seem that a move towards an ice free Arctic in the winter would be needed to reach the point where it rapidly switches.
You may want to visit ASIF to be part of a fairly in depth discussion of the 3 cell versus 1 cell climate.
PIOMAS March 2014
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: During the month of February the gap between this year and the other years from the post-2010 period ...
Let's assume the doubling rate of 10 years is confirmed by additional observations.
http://mashable.com/2014/03/16/greenland-ice-melt-sea-level-rise/
"Already, the melting of the Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global sea level rise, accounting for about .02 inches of the 3.3 inches per year global average sea level rise."
By 2020, the contribution will be .04 inches. By 2030, it will be .08. By 2040, it will be .16. By 2050, it will be .32. By 2060, it will be .64. By 2070, it will be 1.32 inches per year! By the end of the century, Greenland ice mass loss will be contributing 10.5 inches of sea level rise annually!
Good luck with that!
PIOMAS March 2014
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: During the month of February the gap between this year and the other years from the post-2010 period ...
More...
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