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Bert van den Berg
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Thanks for the chart of annual minimum arctic ice volume. The increase of the last two years is certainly the largest over the 35 years plotted. However what is more interesting to me is that the 35 years of data does not show 3 years in a row of increasing volume. I believe the same applies for the chart of annual minimum ice area. Thus in looking at past history, we should be confident next year will feature a decline in ice area and volume (in other words, an increase in ice volume next year is a low probability event).
Toggle Commented Nov 15, 2014 on PIOMAS November 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
4.2 Just looking at Figure 1, and expecting an uptick this year (~5 year cycle), upticks are about .5. No change in my thinking since last month.
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May 7, 2013