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Connie Quirk
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Missed the context to this unpleasant comment by WS, but his criticism doesn't make sense on the face of it. The list he links is, quite simply, of the deadliest cyclones in history. So its purpose has nothing to do with the criticisms he makes. I'll second Neven here: have a nice life, Wade.
"...the medieval Oprtimum as I understand it is N Europe as compared to average temperature since 2000 - its open to a certain amount of variation but most commentators I have read would still say it was warmer by @ 1 degree." Ah! So we are talking about different things. The North Atlantic region may well have been warmer during the so-called MWP. The globe, not so much. That was the surprise of Mann, Bradley & Hughes (1999.) The basic result that present temps exceed MWP on a global scale has been reinforced by subsequent research, as I think you can find in my previous link to AR5.
"...With these two solid rebound years, we have some assurance that things might not be that bad so soon after all." Don't want to rain on your good feelings about this year, but no, we really don't have any meaningful assurance of any such thing. 2005 was followed by 2007, and that, in turn, was followed by 2012. And in between, 'recovery' was touted. While this has been a surprisingly good year, there is as yet no reason to think that the long-term trend has altered one bit. Dr. Maslowski's 'ice-free by 2016, +/- 3' projection was always aggressive. But it could still come true. Five years is a long time, and the Arctic can pull out surprises with no warning at all.
Hi, Bob-- The Guardian is rehashing Maslowski, I'm afraid. Nothing really new there (the linked review paper is from spring 2012.) FWIW, I don't think conventional wisdom among modelers puts the first ice-free summer as far away as 2100 any more; the consensus looks to be more on the order of 2030-2040. But returning to the topic of Neven's post, I'd like to see more data available as CSVs or something similar; there are a number of products online for which typical home computers don't have appropriate software. (It would be great, for us duffers, to be able to us non-specialist software like Excel--a lot of us will never be reasonably justified in acquiring and learning R.) I wonder if that could be a citizen scientist initiative, BTW. I know there are a number of initiatives like this one: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20121022_oldweatherprojectlaunch.html Maybe volunteer coders could team with agencies holding records to build programs to reformat data, which the latter could then host? I can imagine some issues with this, but maybe they wouldn't be insuperable.
"lots of data has been tampered with to make the past look colder for agenda reasons is my feeling." And my feeling is that conspiracy theory is crap. Whose 'feeling' rules? Or should we perhaps go with logic and data?
Toggle Commented Oct 6, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
"Whatever we do now will only slightly change the trajectory of our headlong flight into oblivion." Sam, the science doesn't support that. With prompt-ish cutbacks in emissions--meaning sharp cutbacks within the next decade--we might even be able to stay below 2 C warming. There are pretty good prospects to avoiding the most extreme projected rises, such as 5-8C. (And thank goodness for that.) Here's a fairly representative graph, more-or-less at random: http://www.indybay.org/uploads/2012/11/21/20121118_emissions_temp_projections.png Adults today can't affect their *own* climatic future much. But they sure as hell can affect that of their kids and grandkids by a whole bunch. But we do have to start doing much better, and very soon.
Toggle Commented Aug 14, 2013 on Perception of the Arctic 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
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May 1, 2013