3.95 Since last year was an extreme drop, I expect some kind of regression to the mean downward trend. (Which we don't know, of course...) 3.9-4.0 has been my guess since the start of the season.

I am an amateur at this, have been following this blog for a year. If there is a groupthink effect from reading and participating here, it must be about what will happen in the medium-short term. Almost everybody seems to expect an "ice-free" (=< 1 Mkm2) Arctic Sea Ice Minimum before the end of the decade. In the short term (this year`s melt) it seems to me that the viewpoints vary quite a lot. There are a few who think we will surely see a new record low, but the majority seems to me to mean that the weather will finally decide. Groupthink? For my part, I voted for no new record, and I think (guess) there will be a rebound in both SIA and SIE this year. I have no feeling of going against "what the group here thinks" in voting so. To the contrary, I find support for my guess from many of the informed posts here at the blog. support for m

More precise: If you are studying variations in melt seasons without attaching any feelings to the different outcomes, it's obvious that the "worst start" must mean the slowest start. Although it's of course better to write the slowest start:-)

Outsiderct, I am a first time poster as well, have been following the blog since last summer. I don't think Neven is excited about the melt. However, when talking about the melt season, it's quite natural to interpret good/bad as good or bad for melting. Which doesn't mean that fast melting is a good thing. I agree with your general point, though.