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A gang busting melt season for sure. And I'm guessing that that large high pressure area centered over the entire Arctic isn't doing the ice any favors either. Is it too early to start prognostication on the minimum extent for the year? Neven... We miss you. Hope you're doing well.
Toggle Commented Jul 7, 2020 on PIOMAS December 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Doc, You ask a great question. I too have been watching the forecasts and it sure seems like there are favourable conditions for ice export. I don't dig far enough into this hole. Maybe someone else here does. JB
Toggle Commented Aug 15, 2019 on PIOMAS August 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
* The Abysmal Belmont Lake Effect (TABLE) A new and improved acronym replacing TBLE... The Belmont Lake Effect. AJbT... kindling indeed !!! Robert S. ... the state change isn't quite complete but I do believe as you stated that it's getting quite close. Phase changes happen in an eye blink and while it might not be this year, who knows? The Arctic is full of surprises.
Toggle Commented Aug 1, 2019 on Comparing at Arctic Sea Ice
@ Rgatess... Years ago I dubbed the phenomenon of the mechanical destruction of sea ice by storm winds as "The Belmont Lake Effect". Here's the post as a reminder to folks. Should we get another GAC this year, I suspect TBLE will come into play. "The Origin of TBLE: It was a mid-spring day and the ice on Belmont Lake was rotten but still covering the entire lake save for plenty of room along the shoreline for a row boat. Dad wanted to go fishing in the worst way. Well, to make a long story short, the wind kicked up, started to push the ice around and within 20 minutes we witnessed 2 miles of 6" thick rotten ice get smashed to oblivion. It was literally all gone when it piled up on the far end of the lake. Obviously the Arctic is just a wee bit larger than a several hundred acre lake ... but the PROCESS has to be the same. Mechanical destruction & dispersal after a major weakening spells "doomed" in my estimation. Sure, the scale is different but both RC airplanes & jumbo jets fly because of the same principles. My 2¢ and I'm sticking to it." It's getting serious for sure. Pass the mustard please. Thanks Neven for all you do. Back to lurking and learning.
Toggle Commented Jul 10, 2019 on PIOMAS July 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
@ William Crump... You ask: "How do you propose that we find the means to obtain the political consensus to implement technical solutions?" Ain't gonna happen except by the barrel of a gun. You are 100% correct when you say that humans are hardwired to deal with immediate threats first but even then, we deal with them on an individual level as you also allude to. You would need to get at least 50% of the planet's population on board with you to do anything IMO. In a nutshell try this on for size: JB's Law of Societal Problem Solutions: "The gestation period of a problem's solution is greater than the gestation period of a human being. The implementation period of the solution is much greater than the time it takes to potty train a child. All solutions are imperfect. Thus the problem to be ameliorated will grow faster than any solution can be implemented." Sorry to be a Debbie Downer but time truly is of the essence and I highly suspect the hourglass is about finished. Just my 2¢. JB
.95 million square kilometers with at least 2 days being ice free. Rationale: purely subjective and based on a unique life experience. Many years ago when Dad was still alive he wanted to go fishing to his favourite lake late in the spring. When we got there the lake was still 98% covered with rotten ice with only the shoreline being open. We had to boat a long circuitous route to get to the place he wanted to fish. Well the fish weren't biting but the wind kicked up and started to move the ice mass. We were forced off the small section of the lake that was ice free & then we witnessed three miles of rotten ice get smashed to bits on the far shores in a matter of less than an hour. Our row back to the boat launch was across open water. Is not the Arctic showing plenty of melt along the shore? Has not the ice been pounded into submission by the storm? Is not the overall quality of the ice poor & rotten? IMO, all that is needed is one good August storm (ala 2012) to complete the analogy. Fractal patterns repeat in nature all the time. It's a matter of scale. Most people on this fantastic blog are referring to the possibility of a rapid ice loss as "the cliff". IF/WHEN it does happen, I will refer to it as the Belmont Lake Effect or BLE... to go along with all the other acronyms that have kept this lurker on his toes for some time now. Carry on Gentlemen. It will be an interesting summer for sure.
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Jun 17, 2013