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Your April 2013 article stated: "Judging by the last three tightening episodes, there’s no evidence that term premia rise sharply when the stance of monetary policy is shifted toward raising short-term interest rates. This is true even for the 1994 tightening cycle, when interest rates and interest rate volatility rose appreciably during the first half of that year. The bulk of the rise in longer-term interest rates in 1994 is attributable to changes in expectations about future short-term interest rates." Today's article disagrees with this prior research. Do you have an explanation? G. Pribyl
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Aug 6, 2013