I totally agree Wayne. This mixing the ice is going through is absolute hell on the integrity of already weakened ice. Many moons ago I called it TBLE ... The Belmont Lake Effect. Just to refresh a few memories this is how it got it's name: "The Origin of TBLE: It was a mid-spring day and the ice on Belmont Lake was rotten but still covering the entire lake save for plenty of room along the shoreline for a row boat. Dad wanted to go fishing in the worst way. Well, to make a long story short, the wind kicked up, started to push the ice around and within 20 minutes we witnessed 2 miles of 6" thick rotten ice get smashed to oblivion. It was literally all gone when it piled up on the far end of the lake. Obviously the Arctic is just a wee bit larger than a several hundred acre lake ... but the PROCESS has to be the same. Mechanical destruction & dispersal after a major weakening, spells "doomed" in my estimation. Sure, the scale is different but both RC airplanes & jumbo jets fly because of the same principles. My 2¢ and I'm sticking to it." It's only a matter of time now and I suspect the extent that will be lost is going to be astonishing. The fat lady may not be singing but she may be humming loud enough to hear. One month to go.

Here's another good one: https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov Be sure to click on the upper right corner icon for the Earth and pick the Arctic from the drop down selection. JB is going back to lurking (with popcorn)

I'm generally just a lurker but will comment anyway since the cause is relatively obvious to me. The ice is in bad shape to start with and the recent shift to a clockwise circulation is spreading already broken ice apart. Here's a fun site to watch. Be sure to have plenty of popcorn to watch this slow motion train wreck. :-) https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=200.94,92.16,805/loc=96.248,89.958 I think that Wayne is really on to something with his analysis. Time will tell huh?

Egh.... I dunno. Galileo at least had a sense of humor and focused most of his attacks on his childhood "friend", the pope. At least that's my understanding of him anyway.

James Cobban.... You are correct but I can't help you with finding the study. I read the same thing.

"We need something like 10 different Constitutional Amendments to fix the ethical and moral problems in the U.S. ..." Ummmm Wade? This is WAYYYY off topic and I'm surprised that Neven didn't snip it. But since you pushed a tender button I'll say this: You cannot legislate ethics or morality. Please keep the politics and religious implications somewhere else. These opinions don't belong here IMO. Thanks.

Thanks guys. @ Navegante.... We will see soon enough huh? @ Bill F. :-) You funny guy. :-) The water was cold but looking back at the experience it was certainly possible to stay in longer. The initial shock was a bit much for the cranium. Surprisingly it was quite comfy after getting out.

Just took a 12 second plunge in the Beaufort Sea at Prudhoe Bay. The air temperature is around 60ºF and I've been told that the sun won't set until Aug. 1st at this latitude. The shoreline is essentially ice free but not for far. However the ice looks horribly rotten. I suspect the majority of the melt ponds are highly disguised by snow slush and in my uninformed opinion may *appear* to be "solid ice" instead of what they likely are.... slush ponds. How far this can be applied to the entire Arctic is anyone's guess. Back to lurking and waiting.

FWIW, every time I check out the NASA Worldview and cloud cover has moved, I see new ice conditions that are unprecedented. Leads are everywhere and it appears that the entire Arctic is cracked to bits much more so than I've ever seen in the past. While I do understand that volume & extent are important, I can't help but believe that the physical integrity of the ice is going to play a huge role in this year's melting outcome. *sigh*

Thank you NeilT. As an aside... wind & solar can never take the place of fossil fuels simply because their application is governed in the same way as any ordinary rate limiting reaction. If one wishes to pave 1,000,000 miles of roads but only has one dump truck to haul materials, it's not going to work. Solar panels etc. [when they are built] require materials [certain rare earth elements] that are not as abundant as would be required to power the planet. My 2¢

Joffan7, Yes indeed. I've been watching the condition of the ice above Morris Jesup and it's been looking like Swiss Cheese since late March. It's also moving east... to be exported through Fram Straight I suppose. The Beaufort is also a mess and I think the area north of Barrow & Prudhoe Bay opened up around the 10th of April. I'm having flashbacks to watching the ice leave Belmont Lake which I mention here from time to time. Should prove to be an interesting melting season as always.

Glenn Doty, Please take a chill pill and slow down a bit before you start casting aspersions on people. Zebra stated " I would like to follow your reasoning, but so far I am pretty confused." As a person of science, I can say that a statement like this means that there is a communication error somewhere and the proper thing to do is to determine where the communication breakdown happened. Being defensive and assuming you were attacked is not good science. May I suggest backing up a bit and determining where the communication broke down? We are here to learn & question & investigate. Egos should be checked at the door. A master carpenter (my Dad) once told me that if you have a lot to get done, it's necessary to take your time. You'll get a lot more done that way. In other words, measure twice and cut once.

"However, some day of course they will be forced to grasp what is going on due to events far beyond people's ability to ignore." Love it. The death of cognitive dissonance will likely be quite harsh for some folks.

Neven, Thank you SOOOOOOOO much for keeping us deep & shallow lurkers informed. The state of the Arctic Ice now continues to remind me of what I called "The Belmont Lake Effect" in a past post of mine. Big wind + weak ice = not so nice outcome for the Arctic. It's anecdotal and intuitive (certainly not rigorous science) but the regulars here seem to support it with their number crunching. *sigh* I wish my crystal ball wasn't in the shop for repairs because it's looking like we may have a wild ride this melting season. Thank you again for all you continue to do. It's highly appreciated for sure. JB

Very strong winds; very weak ice. This isn't gonna turn out well IMO. The Belmont Lake Effect. *sigh* "And so it goes."

Thanks Jim. Much appreciated.

Jim H. You are correct about Ayn Rand & libertarians. Objectivism was her forte´. Neil T. "If the climate won't grow food then people die. " Nailed it. But lets not forget that the climate was much warmer during the age of dinosaurs. Plenty of fodder for discussion there. Elisee, Lets get working on those 19th century skills. :-) And back to the ice. It is becoming painfully more obvious where things are going. But because the timing still isn't clear nor are the consequences, there is plenty of room for debate about the future. It's one of the things we do best as humans. Since the purpose of this blog is not to include such lengthy debates, can anyone recommend such a "place" to carry on such discussions where the contributors are generally rational, respectful & scientifically grounded? You know... similar to the folks who post here. :-) Factual knowledge is more satisfying when it can be applied to our daily lives and I suspect there is an underlying current of this need being held back with many lurkers & contributors here. "What does it mean for me and my family & friends?" is the pregnant question we crave to see give birth. OK... I'll shut up now and get back to dealing with the cabin fever that winter always brings.

When reading Atlas Shrugged bear in mind the timeframe during which it was written. Definitely pre-AGW awareness. I found the book difficult to put down after I got through the first 3 or 4 chapters. Ayn Rand was an incredibly logical thinker and were she to be alive today and reading this blog, I suspect she would be a huge ally to the cause. As far as solving the problem(s) associated with AGW & planet wide ice loss.... welllllllllll...... I suspect fecundity will trump ingenuity. (No reference intended) Stated another way, I suspect that the gestation period of a human being is less than the gestation period of effective solutions and solutions are outnumbered. HOWEVER, I also suspect that those of us who know what's coming (to whatever degree it can be known) are the ones who will be best poised to be ready for the consequences (whatever they may be). It sure is a schoogly situation. Lets not fight over the potential ramifications for society because it's too easy to be wrong; leave that for Face Bait & Twitter. Rather, lets stay focused on the science and the facts. My 2¢ for the day.

Hey Viddaloo..... Take a chill pill man. As a long time lurker here (since the very inception of this blog) I can assure you that Neven has a solid understanding of what you say he seems to not have. I've spent 32 years teaching science and recognize quality work when I see it. Neven puts out quality work. One cannot do that without an understanding based in science. We are ALL up a creek without a paddle when the Arctic Ice goes away but NONE of us can say for certain what the effects will be or when they will come. Some of us are scared silly & some are more of the persuasion to "wait and see". We all prepare in different ways depending on our attitudes. If a person grew up in Florida for example and moved to northern Minnesota, their first winter there would be catastrophic. The locals don't bother putting on long pants until the snow is over a foot deep. Buffalo NY almost NEVER cancels school for snow storms; I've seen schools close in PA on a forecast that never materialize. The future is going to get here soon enough and it will bring surprises for all of us. People who live in stone houses shouldn't throw glasses. (Or something like that.)

Ahhhh yes.... Love the topic of self sustainability as much as is possible in today's world. As changes happen, be they in world finance, energy needs or AGW with associated consequences in each, we all need to follow the Boy Scout Motto... ie... "Be Prepared". In that vein, the one book in my library that absolutely NO ONE gets to take from the house is Carla Emory's "The Encyclopedia of Country Living." Indispensable if only for the gardening knowledge ... but there's so much more!

*** the state of OUR ice **** oopsie. :)

Neven, A big hearty congratulations on your decision to take a break for a while. I've been following your blog just about from its inception and am SOOOOO grateful for all the work you've put into it. My 2¢ as far as the continuation of the blog goes something like this... when I took a sabbatical from teaching, I was "required" to submit what I did and it did prove worthwhile. Maybe... just maybe... you could do the same just to stay in touch with your audience. I suspect it would be relatively easy to post some easy reading paragraph or two on what Neven has done with his family and with his newly built home and at the same time let the scholars who *do* plenty of additional work on the state of out ice, take the time to continue doing their own thing. The Arctic Ice is in your blood but surely the sabbatical will keep you from running cold. Stay warm and continue to be true to yourself and your family FIRST. Many blessings man. JB

D... Several years ago I seem to remember posting something here along the lines of your thinking and I called it The Belmont Lake Effect. The Origin of TBLE: It was a mid-spring day and the ice on Belmont Lake was rotten but still covering the entire lake save for plenty of room along the shoreline for a row boat. Dad wanted to go fishing in the worst way. Well, to make a long story short, the wind kicked up, started to push the ice around and within 20 minutes we witnessed 2 miles of 6" thick rotten ice get smashed to oblivion. It was literally all gone when it piled up on the far end of the lake. Obviously the Arctic is just a wee bit larger than a several hundred acre lake ... but the PROCESS has to be the same. Mechanical destruction & dispersal after a major weakening spells "doomed" in my estimation. Sure, the scale is different but both RC airplanes & jumbo jets fly because of the same principles. My 2¢ and I'm sticking to it. LOL :)

Wayne, I think you nailed it. Ice, being what it is, has a huge heat of fusion... almost 80 calories per gram. One gram of ice at 0ºC has to absorb a LOT of heat before it can go through the phase change into liquid water. Anyone who has ever filled their cooler with cubed ice to keep their adult beverages cold knows that cubed ice melts faster than an equivalent mass of block ice. Why? Surface area. The Arctic ice is now like the ice cubes in a cooler. It's no longer a big "block". I strongly suspect this will play a very significant role with the coming September's numbers.

Neven, I do believe you can stop watching for that last sliver of ice attached to the North American Coast to get out of the way. By the looks of things, that has happened or is so close that it will by the last hours of May. And FWIW, I don't see wind or heat or any other factor being MOST important or the definitive driver of ice loss. What is happening now is the quintessential definition of "cooperation". It appears that they ALL are playing a pivotal role. Very difficult to model for sure.