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4.5 Mkm2. Up from my 3.8 Mkm2 prediction in July. I think the cold and cloudy weather we have been seeing throughout the summer is finally starting to show on the ice graphs. At best we may challenge 2007 for second place but I don't see the 2012 record getting broken this summer even if the weather becomes warmer and sunny. We just have too much ground to make up.
Made a mistake in my post above; the temperatures in the Arctic need to be at least 28ºF (-2ºC) for ice to not form in the winter.
Toggle Commented Jul 28, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
I am no ice expert, but I am having a hard time seeing ice-free winters occurring in the Arctic anytime soon. I don't see the volume making an impact on how much winter ice forms; ice should form if it is cold enough. It could be really thin and weak first year ice, but still ice. The only way I can see ice-free winters happening is if winters in the Arctic are too warm for ice to form. Arctic winter temperatures will need to be at least 0ºF (-18ºC) for this to happen. Since it is always night in the Arctic during the winter, I don't see Arctic winter temperatures reaching that high unless a major catastrophic event occurs.
Toggle Commented Jul 28, 2013 on Arctic time bombs at Arctic Sea Ice
I will keep my prediction at 3.8 million km2. I agree with D, the only thing that is really catching my eye right now is the big Laptev bite. This may change later, but 3.8 seems like a good prediction to me.
I looked at different regions of the Arctic using Cryosphere Today to find out why the melting has picked up recently. After looking at all the different regions, I found out that the biggest contributor to the recent drop is the... area around the Hudson Bay which is ice free by the end of summer. Even though we are seeing 2013 finally starting to get in the race, I don't think this fast decline that we have been seeing the last few days will matter by the melt season's end if most of the melting is happening in areas that will be ice free by the end of the season. A fast decline in which an important region such as the East Siberian Sea is the main contributor will be more interesting to look at since the East Siberian Sea is an area that isn't supposed to be ice-free by the end of the melt season.
Toggle Commented Jul 4, 2013 on So, how slow was this start? at Arctic Sea Ice
It was very hard to come up with a prediction since the ice is thin so weather will make a big impact to the minimum. So instead I'll guess that if we have ice-favorable conditions the rest of the year the minimum in extent will be 4.6 million sq km. If we have awful conditions for the ice the minimum will be 3.0 million sq km. Average those two predictions and we get 3.8 million sq km. So considering we have average ice conditions my final guess for the minimum in extent this year is 3.8 million sq km.
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Jun 17, 2013