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Robert S
Canada
Specialist in accounting of ecosystem values including carbon
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Given the amount of energy still in the system, and the overall temperature pattern, I find that result from PIOMAS a bit odd. Has anyone identified what core variables in the model driven that result?
PIOMAS December 2019
Another month has passed, and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: November 2019 saw an above average sea ice volume increase according to PIOMAS (3834 vs 3553 km3 for...
Wayne: Just a slightly off-topic note regarding solar panels. While it's true that they work, it's also true that they have significant emissions associated with their manufacture. In low emission grid settings (British Columbia, for instance), installing solar panels actually increases emissions, since the atmospheric carbon payback time exceeds the life of the panels.
PIOMAS November 2019
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: During October there was a slowdown in ice growth, which is also reflected in the PIOMAS numbers. 201...
The North Pacific "Blob" of positive temperature anomaly seems to be becoming a near permanent feature. Depending on the rate of flow into the arctic at any given time, delayed freeze or accelerated melt is not surprising.
PIOMAS November 2019
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: During October there was a slowdown in ice growth, which is also reflected in the PIOMAS numbers. 201...
It's interesting that despite consistently freezing temperatures, there appear to still be cycles of ice formation and loss happening in the CAA. Says something about how much heat remains in the water.
PIOMAS October 2019
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: As usual, the minimum was reached during September, and as with other data sets (extent and area), th...
The NSIDC extent has now also recrossed the 2012 line, as the slow freeze-up continues.
PIOMAS October 2019
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: As usual, the minimum was reached during September, and as with other data sets (extent and area), th...
There appears to have been an extraordinary algae bloom happening north of the Laptev Sea over the past few days. I don't know what this indicates in terms of water temperatures, but given the height of the sun in the sky in that area at this time of year, it's an interesting event.
PIOMAS September 2019
Apologies for this late update, but at least it will give me the opportunity to give my opinion/analysis of how this melting season has evolved, now that the minimum is just around the corner. It also gives me the opportunity to announce that the Arctic Sea Ice Forum recently passed the 100 mill...
Doc Snow: I've been observing some signs of decompaction. That's the essential problem with extent as a measure of total ice. 2012, with the GAC, was a compaction event, which exaggerated the ice loss when measured using extent.
PIOMAS August 2019
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: 2019 had a real opportunity during July to further move away from 2012, but failed to do so. Both yea...
javimozo: See for instance https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov - set the view to arctic and, depending on the time of day, step back a day for a full view
PIOMAS August 2019
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: 2019 had a real opportunity during July to further move away from 2012, but failed to do so. Both yea...
The plume of Siberian wildfire smoke being sucked out across the ice is truly impressive today. Lots of heat with it, too. Meanwhile the Northwest Passage is within days of opening unless there's major ice movement south. We could have close to a month with both the Northwest and Northeast passages open. Circumnavigation opportunity if anyone is positioned...
PIOMAS August 2019
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: 2019 had a real opportunity during July to further move away from 2012, but failed to do so. Both yea...
I've never been completely convinced by the PIOMAS volume loss associated with 2012's GAC. It was such a dramatic compaction event that it may have pushed the model outside of its range of accuracy. On the other hand, the extent loss truly was dramatic.
Whether or not 2019 breaks 2012's record, it will be close enough, and looks like a function of the "new normal", where-as 2012 was a unique event. That in itself is reasonably scary.
Looks like there may be some ice export down the east coast of Greenland over the next week. Winds have been keeping that area reasonably compact, so decompaction in this area will impact the extent numbers, although also dooming the exported ice.
PIOMAS August 2019
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: 2019 had a real opportunity during July to further move away from 2012, but failed to do so. Both yea...
AJbT: Great enough to cause some pretty intense melt in Greenland and the Arctic north of Greenland over the past few days...
Comparing
Last week, I opened a special thread over on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum to compare 2012 and 2019, because basically, that's what it comes down to at this point. In the thread, people post data, maps, graphs and satellite images to get an idea of how this year matches up with 2012. Towards the end ...
Personally I am virtually certain that we will see significant ecological and cultural impacts from GHG emissions, although we may be able to avoid the worst of them. There is a part of me that, regarding them as inevitable, wants to see them sooner rather than later, not only because it may stimulate people to avoid the worst, but also unfortunately because I'm scientifically curious about how it all will play out. While I'm already seeing significant ecological change locally, I wish I could see what the coming state will look like. Given how dire this may be for many people, I know that my curiosity is rather ghoulish, but the science is fascinating!
In the meantime, this year continues to demonstrate the old adage that there are many ways to arrive at the same end. Great Arctic Cyclone versus Great European Heatwave...
Comparing
Last week, I opened a special thread over on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum to compare 2012 and 2019, because basically, that's what it comes down to at this point. In the thread, people post data, maps, graphs and satellite images to get an idea of how this year matches up with 2012. Towards the end ...
AJbT: There appears to have been a state change in ice conditions - significant (>10 km in longest axis) coherent floes are less frequent - the ice is more composed of broken bits, which give more edge and water openings between them - more opportunities for melt.
Comparing
Last week, I opened a special thread over on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum to compare 2012 and 2019, because basically, that's what it comes down to at this point. In the thread, people post data, maps, graphs and satellite images to get an idea of how this year matches up with 2012. Towards the end ...
The striking thing to me about the 2012-2019 comparison is the reduction in larger floes within the ice. 2012 had more open water in many areas, but within that open water were large relatively strong floes of multi-year ice. But 2012 and the following years have gradually reduced that component of the ice. Now even in areas with relatively continuous ice, it seems to be largely "rubble", except where recent releases of fast ice have occurred.
Comparing
Last week, I opened a special thread over on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum to compare 2012 and 2019, because basically, that's what it comes down to at this point. In the thread, people post data, maps, graphs and satellite images to get an idea of how this year matches up with 2012. Towards the end ...
It would be interesting to know how much the remaining ice is being melted from below. I'm seeing data indicating that a lot of ocean heat is coming in from the Pacific side...
Comparing
Last week, I opened a special thread over on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum to compare 2012 and 2019, because basically, that's what it comes down to at this point. In the thread, people post data, maps, graphs and satellite images to get an idea of how this year matches up with 2012. Towards the end ...
There's a part of me that is ready (and even hoping) for the kind of outcome that we may be seeing this year. It's looking pretty unequivocal, in terms of the impact of increased CO2 levels. But a ringside seat at the end of the world only gives you a better view...
PIOMAS July 2019
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: To quote Céline Dijon*: This is getting serious. With a total drop of 7066 km3 for June 2019, this wa...
AJBT, I do image to image comparisons looking for colour change - generally gives a reasonable, if broad, indication.
PIOMAS June 2019
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: As you can see, 2019 has moved into second place on the PIOMAS volume graph. The drop of 3234 km3 for...
All that open water from the Bering to the CAA, plus clear skies, will certainly mean a lot of heat going into the water at this time of year. We can watch for melt ponds above, but we really need better data on the "melt ponds below".
PIOMAS June 2019
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: As you can see, 2019 has moved into second place on the PIOMAS volume graph. The drop of 3234 km3 for...
The relationship between the low sea ice extent and the temperature patterns is interesting. It seems possible that ocean temperatures are driving this process, but I don't have relevant data...
PIOMAS April 2019
Apologies for not posting an update last month (busy). ----- Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Look at the red line in the graph above....
gkoehler. I think that the issue is that the stochastic elements outweigh any ability to predict "ice free" status based on a curve. I expect that within 5 - 10 years we will be in a place where any single year in which all the right (wrong) factors come together could be "ice free".
PIOMAS April 2019
Apologies for not posting an update last month (busy). ----- Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Look at the red line in the graph above....
Looks like the hottest spot in Canada today is northwest of Hudson's Bay, almost on the shores of the Arctic Ocean. That's somewhat anomalous, and if that heat starts getting sucked north it'll certainly accelerate the melting in the CAA, which would likely have knock-on effects.
PIOMAS July 2018
What a coincidence. Just like last month, I will have to precede the PIOMAS update with a short news flash that a very strong cyclone is barreling through the Arctic. But this time too, the cyclone will be short-lived, and so it's not entirely clear whether, on the whole, it will be damaging or ...
Wayne: I know the radarsat product... but the $ are the problem...
PIOMAS June 2018
Before kicking off this latest PIOMAS update, there's a little piece of information I'd like to share: A massive cyclone is passing through the Arctic right now. The cyclone has bottomed out about half a day ago at 966 hPa, which is slightly lower than the 968 hPa storm we saw at the end of Augu...
Wayne: Do you have access to any 1m remote sensing products for that area? I could certainly run open water detection on specified areas (doing the whole arctic would need more computer power than I can dedicate to it), but the best imagery I can get is 10m multispectral.
PIOMAS June 2018
Before kicking off this latest PIOMAS update, there's a little piece of information I'd like to share: A massive cyclone is passing through the Arctic right now. The cyclone has bottomed out about half a day ago at 966 hPa, which is slightly lower than the 968 hPa storm we saw at the end of Augu...
Melt ponds appear to be developing pretty quickly in the Beaufort over the past few days.
PIOMAS June 2018
Before kicking off this latest PIOMAS update, there's a little piece of information I'd like to share: A massive cyclone is passing through the Arctic right now. The cyclone has bottomed out about half a day ago at 966 hPa, which is slightly lower than the 968 hPa storm we saw at the end of Augu...
And continuing on the slightly off topic vein, just a detail on the emissions from cement manufacturing. About half of those emissions are recaptured within 50 years by the cement through carbonization... so we have some built in uptake there as well.
PIOMAS April 2018
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: March 2018 turned out to be quite cold, relatively speaking (more on that below). And thus, as expect...
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