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Gerhard Trausner
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4.7 mill. km ²
SEARCH 2014 Sea Ice Outlook: June report
The first Sea Ice Outlook of this year has been published. The SIO is now organized by the Sea Ice Prediction Network (as part of the Arctic research program 'Study of Environmental Arctic Change', or SEARCH), and is a compilation of projections for the September 2014 Arctic sea ice extent, bas...
Hi Neven !
An exciting story. We see how it will begin. And we will see how it will end.
But I am also the melting season in 2013,
Memory. Since the water was cool, after the water has frozen in late October 2012. It was cooled by high waves well, and was colder in the summer of 2013. This year we again experience the summer with warm, insulated water. The Laptev will be very fast without ice.
The day the ice cap died
The title of this blog post is actually the title of a piece of science fiction, a short story written by Paul Briggs. Just like a couple of weeks ago when I was asked for advice on an idea for a novel, Paul asked me for some feedback on his short story. I figured posting it here, will generate...
Neven
I think there were at least 15 km ². Including their own speed.
Jakobshavn calves a(nother) big one
Greenland glacier guardian Espen Olsen informed us a couple of days ago on the Forum that Jakobshavn Isbræ - Greenland's fastest glacier draining 6.5 % of the Greenland ice sheet - has had another big bite taken out of its southern branch recently. Espen made this animation to show the differenc...
Hi Neven !
I think the melt will be stronger this year than last year. The water temperature will be slightly higher than 2013. The fast freeze in October
(Laptev and ESS), the water quickly isolated and could not cool down.
The Baffin Bay is ice-free faster and MYI in the Boufort is already rotten and has the water including isolated.
I am still of the opinion that there is a 2-year Cyklus. In October 2012
the water was quite chilled, what the
Melt has slowed in 2013.
ASI 2014 update 1: melt pond May
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
Hi all !
At the moment we have thick ice where
in summer it is very likely to disappear (Kara, Hudson, Boufort).
But in the Arctic basin, it is as thin as ever.
PIOMAS February 2014 (upgrade to Version 2.1)
Another month has passed, but this time there is more than just a data update. It seems the whole PIOMAS version 2.0 has been upgraded to 2.1. As it says on the Polar Science Center website: We identified a programming error in a routine that interpolates ice concentration data prior to assimil...
Werther , Neil
Thank you very much
PIOMAS November 2013
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Things are getting really interesting now, with volume levels back to those of 2007, slightly above t...
Hi Neven !
Slightly Off Topic
As we see in Modis actually not much of the Arctic, the Antarctic often I look at the moment. There is a glacier, whose tongue 40 - 50 km extends in the open sea. I find that strange. The glacier is located approximately in the center of the image.
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Antarctica_r02c04.2013318.terra.250m
Since the tongue is stable for years, I think he's sitting on ground firmly. But what surprises me. But he must have made a deep ditch. Maybe Espen Olsen and Mauri Pelto know more about these glaciers in the Ross Sea.
Have a nice day, and enjoy using your new house.
Gerhard
PIOMAS November 2013
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Things are getting really interesting now, with volume levels back to those of 2007, slightly above t...
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If you look at the ice-minimum seen from 1991 - 1997, you can see a very clear 2-year rhythm.
PIOMAS October 2013, take two
Let's do this again. I was so busy building a green roof (still not finished), and devastated every evening afterwards, that I didn't get around to updating the previous PIOMAS October 2013 blog post. Here's take two (after that you can take five) with the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as ...
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A re-calibration was necessary.
NASA had even included ice in the Baltic Sea and the Japanese South Island.
PIOMAS October 2013, take two
Let's do this again. I was so busy building a green roof (still not finished), and devastated every evening afterwards, that I didn't get around to updating the previous PIOMAS October 2013 blog post. Here's take two (after that you can take five) with the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as ...
Ohhhhhhh.......!
The melt season has already begun!
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
PIOMAS October 2013, take two
Let's do this again. I was so busy building a green roof (still not finished), and devastated every evening afterwards, that I didn't get around to updating the previous PIOMAS October 2013 blog post. Here's take two (after that you can take five) with the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as ...
..
A little forethought for the Arctic.
After some more ice is left , we are currently seeing a faster freezing of the East Siberian Sea and the Kara Sea . This does not automatically mean that we have to expect there next year thicker ice because rapid freezing may also have the effect that the underlying water is previously isolated before it can cool down the cold winds up at greater depths . As we saw in the previous year despite late freezing surprisingly thick ice in the Kara Sea . Similarly, it was also in the Hudson Bay . I am of the opinion it
could mean a negative feedback effect this isolation . This
would mean a 2 year cycle with the minimum cover , which also seems quite logical to me .
The Bouforth Lake got by the strong winds in the summer much MYI
( multi-year ice ) was inserted , which is still the direction Tschukschensee
drifts . I expect from mid- November, a rapid decrease in the drift velocity .
Worries me the thin ice of Greenland north of Morris Yessup to Fram Str . . It is currently only half as thick as in October 2012. What will mean that there will not be far to the south in the coming melt season . Also the Jöklbucht is already occupied with fresh thin ice , so no MYI can drift to the coast to spend the winter there . This will have a rapid warming of Greenland's east coast next summer to follow . Be particularly felt that the East Greenland glacier as
Zachariah , 79, and Storstossen Bistrup . Above all, the melt of the basal
Kalbungsfronten will not miss its effect . Whether there is a large increase in the flow rate when Zachariah remains to be seen .
He is in my opinion a sleeping giant .
Now to the Barents Sea . The ice cover there is a distinct question of wind patterns and can lead to very large differences in coverage.
Currently, we have very strong winds from the Arctic basin towards the Barents Sea will continue for one week. That is why on the atlantic side of the Arctic ice are more advanced than the previous year , although this year it is melted over there , 2012.
The Bering Sea , I expect this year not as fast as ice-covered last year ,
because the temperatures are relatively warm layers of water up to 30m deep and are therefore not adapt with certain inertia changing winds. In the next summer, it will be interesting to see how quickly the Bering Sea
is ice-free and the Tschukschensee opens. But anyway , I think that is the Achilles heel of the Arctic Barents Sea .
PIOMAS October 2013
It took a bit longer because of the shutdown, but here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Mind you, I expect another update with October date soon as well. Here's Wipneus' ...
So, I 'm back from Greece .
Was nice to sail in the Aegean sea . but many
Jellyfish. The water was too warm.
Well, I do not think the ice has recovered in the Arctic this year .
The most worries me the thin ice
north of Greenland. for east Coast
of Greenland that is something very bad .
The ice from the Arctic in the summer of 2014
not drift far to the south. It will hardly come through Fram Strait . MYI is gone on the east coast . Now there are
30 - 50 cm of ice , where in 2012 at this time
2 - were 3 m ice. In the summer of 2014, which quickly disappear . The water is warmer. What this means for the glacier?
Zachariah , 79, Bistrup and Storstossen will experience a strong basal melt.
I do not know if it will increase its flow rate quickly . But they will . The open water
at the calvingfront of Zachariah is to awaken from his sleep . And he is a giant. He may soon overtake the Jacobshavn glacier .
Pinpointing the minimum
UPDATE September 16th: Given another uptick and the current weather forecast, I'm ready to call the minimum for IJIS SIE V1 on September 12th at 5,000,313 km2. Apparently the high was too big and the pressure gradient too low to prolong things (see below). --- This blog post should perhaps ha...
Oh Sorry !
"But otherwise were the average temperatures
in the Antarctic June to September too high."
Pinpointing the minimum
UPDATE September 16th: Given another uptick and the current weather forecast, I'm ready to call the minimum for IJIS SIE V1 on September 12th at 5,000,313 km2. Apparently the high was too big and the pressure gradient too low to prolong things (see below). --- This blog post should perhaps ha...
NJSnowFan
The Antarctic is the climate in the NH barely influence.
The large ice in the Antarctic has also
another reason. It is very broken.
The floes are drifting far to the outside.
In Rothera we had +4 ° C in September. Neumeier is accustomed to something cold.
But otherwise were the average temperatures
in the Antarctic
One must also note the thermohaline circulation.
The surface currents (NA-current) transport the water in a relatively short time from the south to the north.
But!
The depthwater needs from north to south + / - 1000 years. This allows the ocean to save a lot of heat. And for 1000 years.
June to September too high.
Pinpointing the minimum
UPDATE September 16th: Given another uptick and the current weather forecast, I'm ready to call the minimum for IJIS SIE V1 on September 12th at 5,000,313 km2. Apparently the high was too big and the pressure gradient too low to prolong things (see below). --- This blog post should perhaps ha...
@Sam
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=east&channel=wv&coverage=fd&file=jpg&imgoranim=8&anim_method=flash
Hole
I just saw that Anthony Watts couldn't restrain himself and has posted one more instalment in his series of predictions for the Arctic that have supposedly failed to come about. I know there's no use in telling him that the IPCC projects the Arctic to become ice-free somehwere between 2080 and...
It now come the days where the sun can appear directly underneath the clouds. The long-wave
Radiation will keep the ice and the water warm. It is more convective clouds
produce.
It is the final of the melting season.
Another aspect is the widely scattered ice.
If the new ice is lower, the wind has a good attack. The drift is stronger in the next year. The new ice is broken at every slight storm. The columns must be new ice forming. From year to year more ice must re-form in the winter. Were there earlier in the
September in the Arctic Basin (about 7.5 mil sq km) for about 6mil sq km ice, so there are in recent years, only 2.5 to 3 mils sq. km.
This means it must be there now every year
Produce three times as much ice new, than before.
That is, it drops 3 times as much water in depth, what needs to be replaced again. The termohaline circulation is stronger. And the Barents Sea warmer.
http://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/research/equable/ccf.html
Hole
I just saw that Anthony Watts couldn't restrain himself and has posted one more instalment in his series of predictions for the Arctic that have supposedly failed to come about. I know there's no use in telling him that the IPCC projects the Arctic to become ice-free somehwere between 2080 and...
...
Maybe it's just coincidence.
But why HYCOM has changed its data when the NO-passage is open? Maybe they are committed to providing low to no data for navigation. This could have serious consequences.
But maybe they got
better and more accurate data from the ships.
ASI 2013 update 7: cold and cloudy
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has ...
...
It was a very interesting year 2013.
There were many factors that have helped to keep the ice.
But the fact remains that warms the Barents Sea from year to year.
I am of the opinion it will take a long time until the Arctic is ice-free. But they will one day free of ice.
A rise of sea water of 1m, would
bring a very different flow behavior of Pazific through the Aleutian Islands with it.
It would flow much more warm water into the Arctic.
ASI 2013 update 7: cold and cloudy
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has ...
--
Sorry, my last post is double.
I thought I had made a mistake when first creating.
ASI 2013 update 7: cold and cloudy
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has ...
....
Serezze may be right. The storms have kept the ice. But still, there is a crucial point. The SST. I dare say that if the SST would have been only 1 ° C warmer on average, everything would have looked quite different.
In the dissertation I read somewhere that the storms are periodic.
There was: every 7 years is a storm season.
Are Arctic cyclones chewing up sea ice?
The NSIDC Icelights blog has been on a roll lately, answering questions that are on a lot of lips here on the Arctic Sea Ice blog (see also last month's post on scientific conservatism). This time the storminess that characterizes this melting season is discussed, by no less than NSIDC director ...
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A steel cable with 100 km can be very elastic. It throws back the ice.
I think 150 mm diameter should be enough. Maybe even twice. Buoys as you can
Take mesh box container. The waste industry and are stored as waste in different
Companies and farmers. They are UV-resistant
Emerging Research Questions in the Arctic
Here's something that might be of interest to US citizens who follow what's going on in the Arctic and have ideas about what kind of science and technology is necessary to increase knowledge: a short questionnaire by the Committee on Emerging Research Questions in the Arctic of the National Re...
Kevin
Of North-East Greenland to Spitzbergen
Emerging Research Questions in the Arctic
Here's something that might be of interest to US citizens who follow what's going on in the Arctic and have ideas about what kind of science and technology is necessary to increase knowledge: a short questionnaire by the Committee on Emerging Research Questions in the Arctic of the National Re...
...
Some ideas are pretty crazy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_engineering
Emerging Research Questions in the Arctic
Here's something that might be of interest to US citizens who follow what's going on in the Arctic and have ideas about what kind of science and technology is necessary to increase knowledge: a short questionnaire by the Committee on Emerging Research Questions in the Arctic of the National Re...
...
To change something, you need different people.
1) People with feeling, see what happens.
2) People with mental abilities that calculate
can, where we are heading.
3) People like Neven, the people who say that
something must be done.
4) People with ideas that say what you can do.
5) People with money who fund these ideas.
I myself am not a scientist.
I am a carpenter. I think practically.
If you want to regulate something, you should
5000 buoys and a long steel cable arrange,
shut off and the Fram Strait. That would not be as expensive as other absurd ideas. I think if you hold the ice back to the Fram Strait,
the Arctic will recover.
Emerging Research Questions in the Arctic
Here's something that might be of interest to US citizens who follow what's going on in the Arctic and have ideas about what kind of science and technology is necessary to increase knowledge: a short questionnaire by the Committee on Emerging Research Questions in the Arctic of the National Re...
OT
Lithosphere beneath the ice sheet Gronland
significantly thinner than expected.
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1898.html
Emerging Research Questions in the Arctic
Here's something that might be of interest to US citizens who follow what's going on in the Arctic and have ideas about what kind of science and technology is necessary to increase knowledge: a short questionnaire by the Committee on Emerging Research Questions in the Arctic of the National Re...
More...
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