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Steve Berer
I'm a writer, educator, and econometrician, developing unique, creative models to understand the world and ourselves.
Interests: exceptional literature, narrative poetry, linguistics, quantum mechanics, psychology, religion, Judaism, econometrics, history
Recent Activity
Hi Jan. Interesting work. It appears that you have compiled a good database of time series, and it appears that you have used this data effectively. But in my experience, your backcasted series will not help you forecast more accurately. A backcast suffers from the problem of current, accumulated knowledge and practice being applied to the past, where it did not exist. This is the opposite problem of forecasting, which cannot anticipate knowledge and practice (including events and responses to those events) that will emerge. I think you would be MUCH better served to apply the data and tools you have so ably developed towards FORECASTING TIPS (as well as rates and inflation). That's really what you've done anyway! And in the end, the whole purpose of your work is to anticipate the future, not the past.
Steve Berer is now following The Typepad Team
Aug 22, 2013