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Marking Four Factors Regression vs 538

Just wanted to leave this here in order to mark down the end of the year projections from my Four Factors regression compared to 538's current projections. We're about 17 games in so team's overall net rating is "stable" as we say, meaning it's more than 50% predictive of net... Continue reading

Posted Nov 20, 2018 at Counting the Baskets

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Plausible Enough Win Projections

I put together some NBA Win projections, and had been just about to go on record with them when Jimmy Butler popped up with his demand to be traded away from Minnesota. I figured I’d wait since, otherwise they’d be obsolete before the pixels dried. But, since no one knows... Continue reading

Posted Oct 2, 2018 at Counting the Baskets

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Free Agency Model

I build an updated free agency model. It is a relatively simple OLS model, and maybe slightly less accurate than the fancier machine learning model I built last year, but it is much simpler, easier to understand, and easier to update live. None of them are particularly good at projecting... Continue reading

Posted Jul 4, 2018 at Counting the Baskets

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Some Play by Play Numbers by Age and Height

As part of some model prep I have been working on for a possible new draft model I have been exploring some play by play data. As a part of that, I wanted to do a quick hitter on those numbers. I was able to use the data via Will... Continue reading

Posted Jun 21, 2018 at Counting the Baskets

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A New Benchmark System

Last year I explored a benchmark system for draft prospects by Ed Weiland. The benchmarks track whether a prospect reaches minimum statistical marks in a number of different statistical categories. In looking at Weiland’s benchmarks, I found that the benefits of a benchmarking system is that it allows one to... Continue reading

Posted Jun 15, 2018 at Counting the Baskets

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College Hoops On/Off Numbers

Over at Nylon Calculus, Will Schreefer shared some historical men's NCAA On/Off numbers covering 2009 to 2017. The numbers are available to copy via Google Docs, if you are so inclined. I am, in fact, so inclined, so I copied Will's sheets and did some quick exploratory analysis. Schreefer provides... Continue reading

Posted Apr 7, 2018 at Counting the Baskets

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The Development Path

There’s a long and probably unresolvable debate in basketball over how much of a player’s development is due to the team environment and how much is intrinsic to the player, and likely would’ve happened in most NBA settings. I probably lean more to the intrinsic development than most, but I... Continue reading

Posted Feb 18, 2018 at Counting the Baskets

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Winning in the NBA Might Be a Skill

Most NBA teams past the twenty game mark over the holiday weekend, approximately a quarter of the season. Statistically, however, we are closer to the halfway point, at least in the sense that a team’s average margin of victory (MOV) should predict a bit over half of the variation in... Continue reading

Posted Nov 27, 2017 at Counting the Baskets

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Converting Four Factors to Point Differential

A couple of years ago Evan Zamir built a model to convert Dean Oliver's Four Factors of basketball, effective field goal percentage (eFG%), rebounds, turnovers, and free throw rate, to net point differential. Last year I applied Zamir's formula to regressed early season four factor numbers to derive point differentials... Continue reading

Posted Nov 16, 2017 at Counting the Baskets

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Do You Feel Lucky?

Small sample size theater time, those first fifteen games or so of the season, is the period of the basketball calendar that gives me the most conflicted feelings. Standout rookie performances are exciting! New off season traded players underperforming is interesting! All of which is counterbalanced by the overreactions to... Continue reading

Posted Nov 1, 2017 at Counting the Baskets

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Free Agent Model Check

Given that the free agency period is winding down I decided to check in on the performance of the free agency models I built. Using data from the market over the last three years I built two different models to predict the average annual valuation of the contracts for this... Continue reading

Posted Jul 27, 2017 at Counting the Baskets

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Summer League Rookie Updates

I couldn’t quite wait for Summer League to be over officially, run the numbers to see what, if anything, we can take from the rookies’ performance. But with the Lakers sitting virtually everyone of note for the Vegas Championship, I figured it’s over enough. (Note to the NBA: Vegas Summer... Continue reading

Posted Jul 18, 2017 at Counting the Baskets

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New Celtics' Draftee Stats Compared to Peers

One way to get a sense of player's strengths and weakness is to chart them against their peers. The visual can give a more intuitive feel than numbers by themselves and it's much easier to take in information on a bunch of different players at a time. I created one... Continue reading

Posted Jun 24, 2017 at Counting the Baskets

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Retrodictions Are Hard: Especially About Three Point Shooting

It's been almost three years since I posted my models to predict the three point accuracy of players coming into the NBA, a post called "Predictions Are Hard: Especially About Three Point Shooting". Along with presenting the coefficients for the models, I also gave the results for some of the... Continue reading

Posted May 23, 2017 at Counting the Baskets

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Draft Benchmarks Compared to My Draft Model

Since I started doing draft analysis I have been interested in ways that I could supplement the data I had from the box scores and demographic data to help better predict NBA success. A good amount of this comes from scouts, including high school ranks, draft board rank, and specific... Continue reading

Posted Mar 1, 2017 at Counting the Baskets

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2014 Draft Out Of Sample

A couple of years ago I put out my first draft projection in advance of the 2014 NBA draft. Now a few years gone by and I can run a preliminary test for the draft model on that 2014 draft class. The basic idea of the test is to compare... Continue reading

Posted Feb 2, 2017 at Counting the Baskets

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Four Factors Projections

Useful analytics at the start of the NBA season are sometimes hard to come up with. Essentially you have a choice of noting how unprecedented Anthony Davis's start of the season is or how noisy any particular stat is. There isn't anything wrong with either of those approaches, but I... Continue reading

Posted Nov 2, 2016 at Counting the Baskets

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PT-PM numbers for 2015-2016

I am belatedly getting around to releasing the final Player Tracking Plus Minus (PT-PM) numbers for 2015-2016. PT-PM is my version of a statistical plus minus model, that I have developed over the last few years. I wanted to have a place to reference the numbers for future posts and... Continue reading

Posted Sep 6, 2016 at Counting the Baskets

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Rookie Projections Visualization

This rookie projection visualization, was originally posted on Nylon Calculus. But the dimensions on the host site aren't quite optimized for Tableau visualizations, or at least not the dimensions I am using, so I am giving it a try here to see if it's a bit more readable: The basic... Continue reading

Posted Sep 6, 2016 at Counting the Baskets

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Stacking Up the Celtics Picks

I went through a brief exercise to annotate the stats for the players picked by the Boston Celtics in this years draft using the same basic stats visualization I debuted prior to the draft. The added annotations bring those prospects into focus, and makes it easier to follow them across... Continue reading

Posted Jun 26, 2016 at Counting the Baskets

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Official-ish Draft Board

With the NBA draft one week away, I wanted to get on the record with my semi-official big board draft list[1. I can't write I told you so if I don't tell you anything before hand.] Previously I gave my take on the near top of the draft after the big two of Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram, but here I want to present the whole list. Continue reading

Posted Jun 17, 2016 at Counting the Baskets

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Draft Stats by Position

Draft stat visualization by position In this visualization you can tab through the categories, filter by ranking from Draft Express, and scroll over to find or highlight names. Statistical visual highlights include how much Buddy Hield stands out as a scorer, Denzel Valentine as a distributor, Kris Dunn stands out... Continue reading

Posted Jun 7, 2016 at Counting the Baskets

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49 Wins?

My Highly Plausible Prediction model this year projected the Celtics at 49 wins, a number above their 40 win performance last year, the initial Westgate line on them at 42.5 wins and the general consensus. I have been asked a couple of times whether I "buy" the model's number or not, and the answer to that is, of course, both yes and no. Continue reading

Posted Oct 3, 2015 at Counting the Baskets

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Celtics Drafted Players Data Viz

Below I have a pretty simple data visualization focused on the Celtics new draftees. The box plots are all by position to get a better sense of how the Celtics players rate with their fellow new drafted rookies. Continue reading

Posted Jun 30, 2015 at Counting the Baskets

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Terry Rozier Acceptance Phase

It is probably a good thing for Celtics fans that free agency in the NBA follows so closely on the heels of the draft, if only to distract them from their palpable disappointment. The collective draft let down stems from both the inability of the front office to move up... Continue reading

Posted Jun 30, 2015 at Counting the Baskets

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