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TuringMachine
Karwar
Just a scientist.
Interests: Black holes to Black-Scholes.
Recent Activity
Neven: Do you track max point as well? One of the signature of warming would be increasing melting season days from max to min, and the error estimate in pin pointing.
Toggle Commented Sep 15, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Corrected last few sentences. I, however, would like to add that last years minimum was well below best fit and alarmist shouldn't have gloated. This years minimum would be well above the best fit and the deniers shouldn't be gloating. Once the new normal approaches zero we should expect such large % variations. It is well known thermodynamic principle that as the critical point is approached large fluctuations are to be expected until the system moves far from the critical point.
Toggle Commented Sep 15, 2013 on IPCC crisis meeting at Arctic Sea Ice
I see 60% increase, after spending a day analyzing it, as alarming rather than blessing. From 1995 to 1996 ice volume increased by 2720 cubic kilometer yet the increase was just 24%. Assuming this years minimum is 5000 the increase will be 48%. That is basis has been eroded from 11200 to 3372. History shows that such variations are expected is just a noise, and now the noise is 60% of the new normal. I made my best fit. Checked that residue had very low autocorrelation; about 10%. Standard deviation of residue was about 1000. So deviation of 2000 has about 5% probability. Once the noise level reaches 100% we can not reject a null hypotheses that new normal for arctic ice volume is zero can not be rejected with high confidence. This year increase could be 50% but if next years decrease is 40% we will hit the bottom. I, however, last years minimum was well below best fit and alarmist shouldn't have gloated. This years minimum would be well above the best fit an the deniers shouldn't be gloating. Once the new normal approaches zero we should expect such large % variations. It is well known thermodynamic principle that as the critical point is approached large fluctuations are to be expected until we the system moves far from the critical point.
Toggle Commented Sep 15, 2013 on IPCC crisis meeting at Arctic Sea Ice
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Sep 15, 2013