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werther, although I'm a sceptic I'm not completely deaf to the CO2 theory and so for me, there is always more to learn. I frequently visit a number of blogs of both pursuasions and try to fathom the various arguments best I can with limited science/math skills. I was interested in Chris' link (a reply to NJSF) in which he showed poor correlations between arctic sea ice area and the PDO and AMO (from memory) but a strong correlation with CO2 levels. I may have misunderstood the plots. Chris has now replied (thanks) to clear up a point which evaded me. The strong correlation between CO2/SIA is assumed to be wider effects rather than a very localised and direct effect caused by the absorption properties of CO2 and the specific temps at the poles. I'd assumed (still assume) that the polar amplification of warming was to do with increased heat transport from mid latitudes and that because of lower humidity (compared to tropics), a larger temp increase from the same amount of energy would be expected. I thought I'd maybe missed something here. That possibly, polar amplification was somehow tied in with the spectral physics of colder places. Chris - thanks for the links.
Toggle Commented Sep 20, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks Kevin. My limited understanding of the wavelengths stuff is that the absorption bands for CO2 are at the longwave end of the scale and that this corresponds to a very cold temperature, such as that found at top, or near top of atmosphere. I suppose what I'm asking is, if the distribution of OLR at the poles from the lower troposphere level is therefore more heavily biased to wavelengths that CO2 absorbs.
Toggle Commented Sep 19, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Additionally, one question for Chris Reynolds. From your plot correlating sea ice with CO2, do you consider the increase in CO2 as a generic proxy for temperature increase or is there more to it. For example, are you saying that atmospheric CO2 itself (irrespective of global air temperature) may be well correlated with sea ice because of the specific wavelengths of outgoing longwave radiation at average polar temperatures. Sorry if that sounds confusing, but I recall reading somewhere that CO2 absorbs at wavelengths which correspond to low temperatures.
Toggle Commented Sep 19, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Neven, I visit your blog occasionally but I think this is my first post here, so for transparency sake, I'm a joe public skeptic with a relatively weak scientific background. I do have a couple of questions which I'm hoping someone here may be able to answer. It is in connection with Chris' link to his blog (reply to NJSF) showing correlations to PDO/AMO/CO2 etc. I've often heard it suggested that the 2007 melt may be linked to the 1998 El Nino because the lag time for poleward ocean heat transport is in the region of 8-10 years. I'm not completely wedded to this idea but I do find it plausible. Taking it further, this would imply that the very positive MEI period from around the mid seventies to the turn of the century is in part responsible for the gradual decline in arctic summer ice, with this year on year internal 'forcing' leading to volume loss. Of course, a simple correlation could be obscured by other influencing factors such as weather, solar cycle, AMO, and perhaps 'tipping points' caused by the gradual loss of ice volume. I'm thinking here of the 2012 arctic storms which probably had a far greater effect on the sea ice than a similar storm would have had 30 years ago due to long term volume loss. So, finally to the question! Is this all just speculation or have papers been written to support or dismiss the concept. And secondly, in the event that there is some connection, how well might one expect to see a signal considering the significant potential for noise?
Toggle Commented Sep 19, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
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Sep 19, 2013