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Bradlewski
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With Michael D's RULER training, He will do fine wherever he goes. Garrett If you are in contact with him, please say hello from me and to send me a postcard sometime Cheers Dave
Toggle Commented Aug 27, 2014 on INCH WIDE, MILE DEEP at Phil Town
1 reply
Bradlewski is now following Garrett
Jul 12, 2014
Bradlewski is now following Christian
Jul 12, 2014
Bradlewski is now following Phil Town
Jul 12, 2014
Hey Christian. Yea that was an awesome game. I was cheering for you too. I do like Brazil but 7:1 Your guys just out played them. I will add that the US team did better than expected. Enjoy Dave
Toggle Commented Jul 11, 2014 on INCH WIDE, MILE DEEP at Phil Town
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Hey Paul. My friends have all given you some sound suggestions and I have no idea where you are financially. For me, it is not about how much I and/or something else made, make, did not, etc. It is about how much you keep!! It is your hard earned money. So, demand that this money work just as hard for you as you have for it. I start my investment question as: What is in it for me?? 1) Where am I financially? 2). Where do I need to be financially? 3). How do I get/keep myself where I need to be? Then, I create a Rule #1 recipe to suit MY needs. Nothing wrong with being a sponge and absorbing how others do/did it. But, you are you and nobody else is. So keep this in mind. Use only what has meaning and apply it to Rule #1. So, write in large letters on your investment screen: Don't lose money!! and remember, gravity is always in effect. At any time (that is any time) you have questions/concerns about this Rule #1 stuff. Let the Rule #1 staff know and keep telling them until you get the solution you need. I am just a Rule #1 investor but I will gladly do whatever I can to help you in your quest. Just let me know. You Rule!! Dave
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Hey Michael D. By now you have passed the 65 exam. In any case, here are some thoughts: I took and passed the Series 65 the same day as Phil. Just reverse your Rule #1 training (ONLY FOR THE EXAM) and you will do fine. Can't wait til the Rule #1 advisory service (or whatever name is given) goes live. Give me a shout and we will get together and celebrate Rule #1 style. My friend- Your preferred beverage is on me. In fact, that goes for all RULERS taking the 65 exam. You Rule!! Dave
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Great points Garrett. We have a friend in Switzerland, Frank Grossmann (he writes on Seeking Alpha). Love his ETF rotation strategy. Seems like in 2014 interest rates are the rave. In Switzerland, they just defeated a bill that would raise minimum wage to over $20/hr (US equivalent). Imagine paying for that in the US. In Fed We Trust by David Wessel. That was a great book. I hear Boehner is proposing to put this on the Quarter. He will introduce it with his bill to sue Obama. You Rule!! Dave
Toggle Commented Jul 8, 2014 on INCH WIDE, MILE DEEP at Phil Town
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Hey Torsten. That is a good German name. Looking at PETM your analysis looks good. Others have already answered your Cash flow questions so I will move on to your mos. I am conservative so I would like the sticker to get below $60. True, it has dropped a lot but as others have mentioned, their brand is more of a "higher end" not a luxury but as our US & Canadian economies are becoming more "mature" (as some Economists say) it could be that fewer pet owners are willing to pay a premium for their services when many of them can be found at discount stores like Wmt, and also online at Amzn & Ebay. Here is one analysts report: Analyst Mike Baker notes, "Comps have decelerated 6 quarters in a row, and we think they will remain in the 2% range going forward, primarily due to slowing traffic trends. In fact, we expect traffic to decline at some point in 2014 after growing just slightly over the last few quarters. The biggest driver to slowing traffic trends is increased online competition." I also agree that they are a strong player in this industry. So, if you are looking to do a ROP (Rule #1 Put) for an entry point, here is a Jan 2015 LEAP that Paul Price recently posted on his Virtual Portfolio website: http://marketshadows.com/2014/01/31/playing-doggy-stock/ Keep digging into their management changes. Personally, I want to know more about this. A good price does not equal a good value. I will keep digging as well. We have a history of cats. Our last one passed away 2 months ago (he was 16 and the best alarm clock. We loved him sooo much). We rarely went to PETM. The local store closed and even when it was open, most of the products were better priced at WMT. Even their Vet services were more costly than our home vet.-these are just my observations others may have a broader class perspective. Hope this helps
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Yea Stephan Gratulation on your newest member!!! Thanks for sharing the news Michael D
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Hi Christian. I agree with you on door #2. We have a somewhat similar situation with Anna's retirement plan. Obviously, it is not as good as your German plan (Germany perhaps, has the best pension system in Europe). We are hoping to put the money in an index as well. Mutual funds are more difficult to get in and out of. Currently, some of our USA portfolio is in Vanguard's EDV (Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF). We put some in it first week in January 2014. The tools said get in. Now, February 01, 2014 (maybe 3 weeks) it is up 10%. not bad. We plan to rotate it internationally, like into the US Market MDY - S&P MidCap 400 SPDRs, or FEZ - SPDR Euro STOXX 50 and some other international indexes so we get lower volatility and a good return while are money waits for a great MOS. Make's a nice Berky when the market valuations are high like now. Back to the retirement pension. We plan to put them into the FEZ or local equivalent. we are still filing paperwork and we will spend a few days in different lines at different agencies (Again, Germany has a better system) but eventually we will get there. Oh, almost forgot, Anna's retirement can be set to pay in $US,or ZLTY (no Euro's yet). The exchange rate is very favorable (government discount-of course the interest rate is also lower). Yours is probably in Euro (of course it is). Question: Would you put it in a $US denominated index or a Euro denominated index? The Exchange rate and foreign taxes may be problematic? You also said in your post that no ETF's are available. So, are you considering a US index ETF or something traded on the German DAX? Hope this helps.
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Yes Alon, I agree with you and the others on SODA. In their Jan 13, 2014 earnings statement, they mentioned revenues were up 29% from 2012 but as you said, the machines are not being used. They are attempting to coattail GMCR's success in K-cups with the SODA soda-caps. Unfortunately, soda users are not well correlated with coffee users. Now, As many of you RULERS know, I am not a coffee drinker (love GMCR hot chocolate & the coffee museum in VT). I am also not a soda drinker (prefer it flat like the McD orange soda-that's good stuff). So, I may be biased in my opinion. In their defense, the CEO, Daniel Birnbaum is trying hard to salvage the company. SODA is debuting a Super Bowl ad with Scarlett to promote the new Soda-caps. The company is now close to their 52w low ($36.56 on Jan 31, 2014 close). Is it a fad? maybe, but unlike GMCR the SODA brand name does not have a lot of meaning to me as a Rule #1 company and even for soda drinkers KO is a much better play. Cheers!!
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On PTL. In addition to agreeing with what Clay & what my fellow PTL members have said. PTL is not about "easy" My wife reminds me of this each day (ouch!!). So, if you can't do the time for whatever reason (i.e. money, time, interest, trust). Don't put in your dime. I have not attended any of the other online courses (I have attended the Atlanta workshop and suggest that this be required before commenting) but I have had great in depth conversations with Jeff, Joey, Paul, Phil and may of the other Rule #1 gang. So, I can confirm that it is your decision and your lifestyle is not determined by how much $$ you make or spend. It is determined by how much of your hard earned $$ that you keep. Case in point. I have 50% of our (my wife & I) brokerage funds in cash. In December 2013, we put 10% in one wonderful company. Xmas eve, we got a text message that our Biz had doubled and we automatically sold 50% of our holdings (less than one month). Now, January 2014 YTD our remaining shares are up another 40%. So, Is there value in PTL. Heck, the first double paid for PTL and then some. House money is paying for the next year even if it trips our stop loss. So, IMHO, What does the market have to do with buying a wonderful biz at a price with great intrinsic value plus a huge MOS. Not much. But the discipline of Rule #1 investing and the interaction we get in PTL gives us the value we seek and it comes with a huge MOS. Bottom line: You decide what is best for you. So, make an informed decision, choose wisely, and most importantly, GRAB THE STICK!!
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Why is Seth reducing BP? I was wondering this as well. Seth has his reasons but reminds me of a reverse situation. In 2009 we owned TRGT @7. sold it in 2010 @$21. Nice ROI for less than 1 yr. Seth bought in 2011 @~11.19 and sold early in 2012 @~$6.29. Not a great ROI. Now, before you start digging into TRGT. STOP!! Why? because in most anybody's view TRGT is a risky biz. We got in with the 4M's-we have a close friend with Alzheimers, We have friends who smoke, we understand the R&D. The moat (at the time) was fantastic. The mos for us was ~$25 (at that time). Obviously this changed. So, when Seth got in I found myself up on the roof digging into why I should get back in with him. I vividly recall myself on the roof explaining, Seth knows more than us and he is in with 6M shares. My wife, at ground level, was pestering me with all the facts from various sources including TRGT that were ALL negative. So, eventually I came down from the roof and declared; what about BAX, their at $48 and doing R&D in nicotine. Rode this up to $68 and change. True, Seth still has more money than us and that's OK because I don't have all those peoples money to answer to. I have someone more important. My wife who stands on the ground explaining the rules.
Toggle Commented Nov 16, 2013 on ANGELA (guest post) ON SILVER WHEATON at Phil Town
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Hey Josh. I'm not as wise as Phil but my take on "alpha is a zero sum" is that for every dollar us un-sophisticated RULERS gain from our investment dealings with Mr. Market. There is an equal dollar lost by those sophisticated $$$$###s (like institutional investors, QE, etc,.) from dealings with Mr. Market. In essence, creating the zero sum ($1-$1=$0) of Alpha(more $$$). To channel Seth, here is his version: "Investors operate within what is for the most part a zero-sum game. While it is true that the value of all companies usually increases over time with economic growth, market outperformance by one investor is necessarily offset by another's underperformance." -Seth Klarman, 2005 Baupost Value Partners Letter Here is a longer version http://www.riskoverreward.com/2009/04/investing-as-zero-sum-game-alpha.html Rule On
Toggle Commented Nov 14, 2013 on ANGELA (guest post) ON SILVER WHEATON at Phil Town
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Hey Evan. we're not in Orlando, Fl. Just a couple of states up in Charleston, SC. But we do have Internet service and pigeons as an emergency back-up plan (in the event the bridge is out). Our email is bradlewski [at] netscape [dot] com. We, Anna (she's the smart one) & I welcome any of you as fellow RULER studie-budies So, to reiterate what Michael D. said ... The only thing I would add to this is that you must be very careful when getting help from your peers. It can be difficult when you aren't sure about something to discern good information from bad information. I've been there, done that. Rule On.
Toggle Commented Nov 14, 2013 on ANGELA (guest post) ON SILVER WHEATON at Phil Town
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Bradlewski is now following The Typepad Team
Nov 3, 2013