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Patrick Armstrong
Ottawa, Canada
Canadian government USSR/Russia specialist. Counsellor Canadian Embassy Moscow 1993-96. Retired 2008.
Recent Activity
COVID AND RUSSIA. As of today there are about 3600 cases and 30 deaths, most in Moscow City. Why so much lower than other places? Some reasons: Moscow ordered travel and flight closures earlier than Western countries; it does not... Continue reading
Posted 3 days ago at Sic Semper Tyrannis
(NOTE: Away in Feb, felled by severe cold this moth. Not.not CV) PUTIN 4EVER. (Russian Constitution text.) In January Putin suggested some amendments to the Constitution to be discussed and put to national vote in a referendum. Which is, I... Continue reading
Posted Mar 19, 2020 at Sic Semper Tyrannis
KREMLINOLOGY. I've been at this business for a while and one of the things I've learned is that "Kremlinology" is a waste of time: speculating about who's who and the meaning of personnel appointments is worthless. Why? Because we simply... Continue reading
Posted Jan 30, 2020 at Sic Semper Tyrannis
It's an old story. Mr X is elected POTUS; going to do this and that; something happens in the MENA. That's all anyone remembers. Maybe time to kiss Israel goodbye, tell SA to sell in whatever currency it wants, and realise that oil producers have to sell the stuff -- it's no good to them in the ground. The POTUS' can turn their attention to the looming Canada problem.
Glad to hear it. The comments are one of the best things about the site: intelligent, thoughtful, knowledgeable people for the most part.
THE GREAT RESHUFFLE. I do expect Putin to retire and assume him to be working on a succession plan to keep the team's aims in operation. He's due to go in about four years. I would not be surprised if... Continue reading
Posted Jan 16, 2020 at Sic Semper Tyrannis
(Written on the evening of. So subject to reconsideration/revision/outright denial as we learn more.) I didn't expect any of it. Neither did anyone else, whatever the so-called experts outgassing on the US Garbage Media may be pretending. I don't know... Continue reading
Posted Jan 15, 2020 at Sic Semper Tyrannis
From Magnier We have learned today from #Iraq Prime Minister AdilAbdl Mahdi how @realDonaldTrump uses diplomacy: #US asked #Iraq to mediate with #Iran. Iraq PM asks #QassemSoleimani to come and talk to him and give him the answer of his mediation, Trump &co assassinate an envoy at the airport and The legislation has been approved by #Iraq MPs to terminate the presence of the US forces and for the government to implement the resolution.
Rice says Obama administration never given the opportunity to kill S -- would have carefully weighed pros and cons -- planned for consequences -- probably not have. Stripped of the BS, an admission that the OA would certainly have considered doing it and not ruled it out immediately.
Not that it makes much more than an academic difference at this point, but I suspect Trump was suckered by the war party. "Gee boss, we've int that he's plotting something big"and he's in our sights" "OK. Shoot"
And there's a lot of "no more Benghazi" and "Trump's tough unlike that wimp Obama" in the Twittersphere.
With the latest news I think a lot of birds are rustling their wings preparatory to taking flight.
I made an error which was pointed out to me. not 2.26 tonnes but 2261 tonnes of gold. Only US, Germany, Italy and France are said to have bigger stockpiles. But some question the US amount ( and Germany suffered a mysterious delay in getting its gold back from the USA (
1. Washington has begun its last foreign war 2. Trump has handed his future to Tehran Questions Given that so many Israelis have dual citizenship, how many do you think will still be there when hundreds of rockets start falling? What will Washington do when (not if) the Iraqi government tells all US troops to leave? Was this Trump's decision or the Borg's? What difference does it make? Will Tehran's response surprise Washington? Astound Washington? Absolutely stun and gobsmack Washington?
Thank you very much. What else is there but the respect of people you respect?
TWENTY YEARS. Putin & Co have been running the place for two decades. I assess how well they accomplished his 1999 program and discuss the one thing he forgot about then but has since been forced to remember. The verdict... Continue reading
Posted Jan 2, 2020 at Sic Semper Tyrannis
No, I don't. Still trying to figure out what happened.
I don't think this is the appropriate venue for miscellaneous news about Russia. So I won't approve any more comments that don't directly bear on what I said.
Speaking of "Putin's niece", this, from the Daily Beast is a reminder of how all this crap was spun. Worth a read given what we all know now.
Pedantic point Феликс Эдмундович Дзержинский Feliks (Felix) Edmundovich (son of Edmund) Dzerzhinskiy is the Russianised version of the Polish Feliks Dzierżyński And just to show how how small the world is, he was a school with Piłsudski (and Kerenskiy's father was the teacher of the young Lenin) (In fact the Bolshevik world seems to have been as small as the conspirators' world. Anybody know a Russian woman we can put in the same room as Flynn so we can create the story that Putin has set a honey trap? Yeah says Halper, there's one right here in Cambridge. Anybody know a Russian we can put in the same room as Trump junior? Yeah says Simpson, there's this Russian lawyer who's part of our lobbying efforts. Anybody got Putin's niece? Yeah, says Mifsud, I've got a student who can be her.)
"So far, the House has voted to impeach (future tense) Trump. He isn’t impeached (past tense) until the articles go to the Senate and the House members deliver the message. -Noah Feldman"
I'm starting to like the theory that all of this is a desperate attempt to silence all mention of Ukraine because the involvement in bribes, kickbacks is so huge. To say nothing of all the Ukrainian connections to the conspiracy.
Addition was left behind a long time ago. Consider that we are supposed to believe that Putin can rig elections in the UK and USA but not in Ukraine, Georgia, the Baltics and other places closer to home.
PARIS MEETING. It happened but nothing much happened. Agreed to a ceasefire and to uphold Minsk. But Zelensky can't deliver: the Ukronazis amuse themselves by popping off rounds into towns in Donbass and Kiev refuses to take the next step:... Continue reading
Posted Dec 19, 2019 at Sic Semper Tyrannis