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Mike H
Math and finance
Interests: Energy, environment
Recent Activity
For years I have heard the proposition that the disappearance of sea ice produces a significant positive feedback which will accelerate melting and global warming in general. I think I understand the mechanism. However, it has occurred to me that this feedback might be somewhat limited, as the timing of maximum solar insolation occurs much before the maximum amount of open water in the Arctic. Also, the increase in open water in fall and early winter produces a negative feedback due to extra release of heat to space. Has anybody tried to estimate the net effects of these two feedbacks ? That is, how much extra ice volume should be lost in spring/summer due to reduced ice area of say, 1 million km2 between 70-80 N ? And how much extra ice volume should be gained due to a similar decrease of ice area during fall/early winter ? I have tried to follow the math of various forcings but find myself overwhelmed, given that short-term noise (wind and ocean currents, other effects of weather) tend to dominate the action in any given year.
Toggle Commented Sep 8, 2014 on PIOMAS September 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Good to know. I found the frog tale hard to believe but Al Gore said it and fooled me.
It is possible that society is no wiser than the frog slowly boiled in a pot. The consequences of AGW are taking decades to manifest. And in Southern Ontario, the one-in-fifty cold winter followed by a very cool summer is problematic. Many people simply don't believe the planet is warming, and most of those that do have other things to worry about. A couple of tenths of a degree per decade does not alarm the average person, at least where I live.
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Jul 8, 2014