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Olivier Del Rio
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P.S. : And Andryushkino bottom out at 969.3 hpa in synoptic data, so probably even a bit lower for the lowest pressure reading. http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=25017&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2016&mes=08&day=27&hora=06
I agree with wayne, it is looking more and more like the arm of low sea ice concentration will not sustain this final assault. Despite the seasonal cooling, there is no cooling at all in the eastern part of Siberia with record for so late in the season : http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=25051&decoded=yes&ndays=20&ano=2016&mes=08&day=27&hora=09 http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=21978&decoded=yes&ndays=20&ano=2016&mes=08&day=27&hora=09 20° and gust to more than 100 kph in Arctic in the last day of August... Weird. And it is taking place right over the thiniest part of the pack.
Ostrov Vrangelya in my last message sorry, OStrov Vize is toward the Atlantic side. And as I was looking foirecasts, I missed what was happening... 55.8 mm in 24h at Grise Fiord!!!! http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=71971&decoded=yes&ndays=20&ano=2016&mes=08&day=22&hora=12 http://www.climatvisu.fr/images/Autres/2016082012_4_nh.gif Absolutly insane, totaly crazy. Probably the highest 24h hour rainfall total in the whole Arctic. Environnement Canada counts rainfall 06Z to 06Z so for the 19th, 20th, 21rd, total are 27.8 - 28.1 - 29.3 mm!!!! Totaly crazy. The month to date is 125.7 mm, probably something like 400% of the "normal" O.O Holly shit!
Toggle Commented Aug 22, 2016 on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
And another important point I think, that I let aside sorry. Thickness was really high during this months of June and July, and correlates well with water vapor of course. This points to an increase importance of latent heat and some warm core process. Open waters early in the season could warm and reach values trailing only behind 2012. This is even more evident with the latest GFS which show clearly warm core process near Ostrov Vize. http://www.climatvisu.fr/images/Autres/138_5_nh.gif http://www.climatvisu.fr/images/Autres/138_4_nh.gif http://www.climatvisu.fr/images/Autres/154.phase2.png Of course, the IFS is not as fool, but nevertheless it is an extraordinary achievement to see a model able to at least stabilize a low pressure area with showers activity more than baroclinic activity. For June and July, only 2010 and 2012 saw higher 1000 - 500 thickness for such low pressure. And overall, it is the 8th highest tickness, which is quite extraordinary given that recent warm high pressure brought records high thickness for Arctic. http://www.climatvisu.fr/images/Autres/thickness.png
Toggle Commented Aug 22, 2016 on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
"(this is from Robert Scribblers blog... it's all fascinating/news to me!) (Why is more heat absorbed at night??)" The sentence is a bit misleading. Actually, nights and winters warm more than summer and day. This is a fingerprint of the greenhouse warming. Warming in summer and day is due also to the sun, and not only due to greenhouse effect, so the increasing greenhouse effect is not as visible and is more diluted. And in Arctic water vapor can potentially have a stronger feedback effect because water vapor is near zero in the old climate of Arctic. Despite "cold" air temperatures -everything is relative...- SSTs were extraordinarily warm and precipitable water was near record levels in 2016. Hence, the downpours with some staggering amount of rainfalls in 24 hours, and strong downward IR radiations. To illustre the point of Robert (hoping I made no mistake with the weighting of superficy ^^" ), downward longwave radiation flux for the Arctic in June-July from the reanalysis : http://www.climatvisu.fr/images/Autres/DWLRF_quot.png http://www.climatvisu.fr/images/Autres/DWLRF_mensuel.png Third highest after 2012 and 2016, but in fact indistinguishable from 2006. For SSTs, according to the reanalysis, water temperature were second highest only behind 2012, and precipitable water third behind 2012 and 2006 (a thin hair ahead of 1998)... http://www.climatvisu.fr/images/Autres/SST_TPW.png Robert has a good point pointing to warm and humid Arctic. It was already perceptible in others years, but in 2016 there is clearly a paradigm shift with strong, warm, moist cyclonism which can destroy ice as easily as a strong ridge. Neven wonders itself if this can be a consequence of the warming. No strong evidence here of course, but some hints indicate that is could well be the case. Early snow retreat can enhanced the temperature gradient near the shores of Arctic, and so brings cyclonism. In 2010 it was also the case. No big cyclone in 2010, but some potent ones still, with strong warm moist air advection (up to +20°C à 850 hPa in July....). In 2016 it was even worst and sea ice could not sustained the assault. We are still a bit short of subtropical and tropical cyclone but I don't think that the future of the Arctic is set to be made of high pressure area and clear skies. And forecast from the models are gloomy, showing consistently a strong advection of warm air with belligerent winds over the already weak area of sea ice. http://www.climatvisu.fr/images/Autres/ECMOPNH00_168_2.png Race is not over yet and we could well see a very late minimum not so greater than 2012.
Toggle Commented Aug 21, 2016 on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Not directly linked to arctic sea ice, but for information. Not afraid yet? Zombie virus are coming to haunted us from the permafrost. After anthrax north of Salekhard, scientists are now worried that zombie smallpox can now emerge from the no more frozen banks of the Kolyma ( in itself Kolyma is already sounding like the Death dancing with us xD ) : http://siberiantimes.com/science/opinion/features/f0249-experts-warn-of-threat-of-born-again-smallpox-from-old-siberian-graveyards/ For the WHO, which announced eradication of the smallpox in 1977, it will be an epic fail. And for many countries, smallpox is now a forgotten threat...
Toggle Commented Aug 16, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 5: big cyclone at Arctic Sea Ice
And the first cyclone brushing the russian coast (around the 13th of August) brought heavy rainfalls. Perhaps still a bit short of Louisiana rainfalls, but still unbelievable for such a location. Mys Sterlegova recorded 45 mm of rain with a temperature of 7°C or 8°C in 24 hours... http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=20476&decoded=yes&ndays=20&ano=2016&mes=08&day=14&hora=15 http://www1.wetter3.de/Archiv/GFS_Global/2016081400_9_as.gif And 12.4mm of rain for the station which was once near Ef climate, Mys Chelyuskin -some SYNOPs data lacking actually-. With a temperature around 2 to 5°C (and a peak of 14°C under a shower...). Why sea ice is melting despite all this cyclone? Because temperatures are perhaps a bit on the cool side, but are still crazy warm for such a synoptic situation. So it rains, day after day, and the energy not coming from the sun comes from the liquid water. In the end they are going to be able to have their own tropical cyclone, isn't funny an arcticane?
Toggle Commented Aug 15, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 5: big cyclone at Arctic Sea Ice
Don't read all the comments, sorry, but to answer your answer, a bit of the answer could be warm cyclonism I think. Cyclonism this year is not like cyclonism in 2013 for example; strong, cold, baroclinic cyclonism. It's already a tad a warm cyclonism, with thunderstorms like you said before. From my experience in the mountains, rain and wind are devastating for the snow of course, and wet snow can be quite disastrous also because wet snow is really more able than snow to forced the "sucking" of energy to melt. I don't think high pressure will persist with global warming, I don't think it is realist. About the big question without any answer, what will happen when arctic is ice free. An author of sci-fi said that there will be a "monsoon" of the Great North, and I think it is the most credible hypothesis I have seen, even though it is not peer reviewed XD Rain has a tremendous amount of energy embodied within it. For example, Ostrov Vrangela saw 12 mm of rain in one day, the 09th of July, with a temperature of 2 – 3°C. It looks like it is a daily record for July, and even though it does not sound a lot for many of us we are accustomed to this amount about every other day XD for a piece of rock lost in the Arctic Ocean and normally ice-choked about every day of every year it is an astonishing total. Same story for Alert for example, the 2nd of July 10.8 mm of rain with temperatures between 0 and 2°C, etc... Water vapour also increase the downward IR, and snow&ice absorb a high amount of IR.
Toggle Commented Jul 24, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 4: breaking point at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven, great blog ;) I must said I'm not really optimistic for April, and even less for this summer. Contrary to others recent years, there is a memory of the huge anomalies of this winter. Usually, there is a kind of partial "reset" during April. For sea ice extent in particular, the decrease over the decades is the lowest in April - May and all years tend to converge a bit. And with heavier snowfalls during winter (more humidity with warming and so on), snow cover in late winter is not really low for recent years. Usually, snow melt in late spring -ie. May and June- is a good indicator of sea ice melt (for example 2010 and 2012...). But in 2016 this usual partial "reset" is barely noticeable. Snow cover is already very low (March was more or a less a tied record with 1990 -37.16 millions of km² in 2016 vs 37.12 millions of km² in 1990-) and the sum of all the Northern Hemisphere “white”, sum of sea ice extent and snow cover, is the lowest in record for February and March. And this trend continue in early April with low snow cover and warm about everywhere. NH is already accumulating heat. Anomalies can go back and forth and there is not so much persistence in anomalies, but there is in 2016 some kind of threshold. One thing for example, models are announcing the end of the -20°C for mid April.... According to the reanalysis, the prior for this metric was 1980 in the first days of May. If models confirms, we will cross this threshold a full 2 weeks before any prior. And again, in recent years the -20°C was not always lost early due to this kind of reset: http://imageshack.com/a/img921/7771/fAywEM.png . Reanalysis has a coarse resolution so in models with a finer resolution it can be a bit later but the idea is here (but one advantage of coarse resolution: spurious readings over Greenland are de facto eliminated. Sometimes models show cold 850 hPa temperatures over Greenland because of the high ground, but for reanalysis it is not the case). This example represents a net loss of cold if I may said. Sea ice will probably still bounce back a bit like about every April and May, but not so much and after, go to the basement. Perhaps not a new record (even with a really bad start, beating 2012 will still be tough). But chance for an increase of volume in 2016 are slim at best, chance for blowing away precedent record for sea ice extent and snow cover in April – May are high (for snow cover in particular, it's virtually certain record will be at least beaten), and we will never fully erase all the heat already accumulated in the great north. And in the same times subtropics also have accumulated heat, and I don't think we can get rid of this heat -even if anomalies can go back and forth, here we have also cross early some kind of thresholds-. For this another example, from India to Africa temperatures at 850 hPa are already above 30°C and each flow from the south let this warmth to spill (for Europe, Bosnia reach 30°C at 2 meters this days. It's one of the earliest 30°C reading at surface in Europe -compared to some 30°C en Andalucía in 2015...-). More exactly, what I mean is that we have already to much advance over seasonal cycle. For many metrics in many places, we are already at reading more typical of May. All this warmth will not be erased, it's like hoping there will be no seasonal cycle. Some early crossing of remarkble values was possible (30° en Granada en Marzo de 2015 !) but never at this scale for NH. The end of the -20°C in mid April is from this point of view the thing wich strike me the most.
Toggle Commented Apr 7, 2016 on PIOMAS April 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
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