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James Sutherland
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I was thinking of submitting under the name The High Arctic Wizard and His Dice Of Spectacular Predictions. They'd have to add Magic as an outlook method though. This would be the control group. If your predictions fare poorer than the Arctic Wizard's then your prediction method must be very poor indeed!
Good story. Only one thing I would nitpick about and that's the part that says "Even the weak sunlight of the high latitudes". Total sunlight in June/July in the Arctic is actually immense because of all day sunlight. That could be a problem because June/July happens to be (so-far) the time of year when the ice hasn't had much chance to melt yet. Ice at least guarantees 50%+ of that high june/july insolation is bounced back into space. No ice doesn't offer such guarantees. http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/processes/albedo.html That might be why melt pools in may are such a good predictor (apparently). So when I look at the cryosphere today graph I don't look so much at the September minimum dropping (~no sun by september anyway), I look at that may-august decline shifting leftwards, earlier. I think that's going to have more impact, if ever the Sun gets to dump it's full fury into the Arctic ocean unopposed by ice it's going to change everything.
Toggle Commented Jun 10, 2014 on The day the ice cap died at Arctic Sea Ice
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Jun 10, 2014