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What would drive the uplift of the moist arctic air needed to generate the "northern monsoon"? Even with the arctic ice melting in late spring and sea surface temperatures peaking at 15°C by mid-August, the arctic would still be the coldest part of the northern hemisphere until the northern portions of the continents began to cool rapidly in the fall. It might be start to be possible for the warmer, wetter arctic air to be lifted by colder, dryer continental air starting sometime in October, and this could continue until the arctic froze in December and cut off the moisture supply. This could lead to lots of mid-fall rain and late fall snow in the far north, but the temperate zones south of 50-55°N or so will cool more slowly than the area north of 60°N and might never be colder than the arctic. Any arctic air making it that far south probably won't be getting lifted, making the higher humidity largely irrelevant. Even when the moist arctic air is lifted, how much rain can be reasonably expected? Air can hold substantially more water at 10°C (likely the highest possible arctic temperature when pockets of colder continental air begin to form) than at sub-freezing temperatures, but still far less than at even a temperate 20°C. Rain will fall, but torrential downpours could be difficult to produce.
Toggle Commented Jun 17, 2014 on The day the ice cap died at Arctic Sea Ice
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Jun 10, 2014